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| Friday April 20 2018 |
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By Matt Chorley
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Good morning,
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Phew, what a scorcher. I mean I like the heat, but this is too hot. I can't believe it was snowing only a couple of months ago and now this. It's like the seasons have changed. I did not see that coming.
Britain had its hottest April day for 70 years yesterday, as temperatures in the capital surpassed those of Los Angeles, Lisbon, Lima and other places beginning with 'L'.
Runners have been told not to do the London Marathon this weekend in costumes that are awkward, cumbersome and falling to pieces, which means I won't be able to take part dressed as Theresa May's general election campaign. I shall go to a beer garden instead.
QUIZ QUESTION: Who holds the record for being the fastest MP to run the London Marathon at 2hr 33min? Answer at the bottom of the email
- Red Box is a must-read in No 10 and across Westminster. Know someone who is missing out? Get them signed up today thetimes.co.uk/redbox
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Must reads
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- Sterling fell yesterday after the governor of the Bank of England hinted that an interest rate rise in May was not a foregone conclusion.
- A county council that in effect went bust and which is being taken over by the government paid 23 of its employees more than £100,000 last year.
- It is a post-truth universally acknowledged that a simples man in possession of a squeezed middle must be trying hard to use every new word or phrase from the past decade. But analysis shows most buzzwords fall out of favour almost as quickly as they find it.
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Would you rejoin the EU?
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Imagine it's 2020. We're all commuting in driverless pods, Facebook has gone bust and Jeremy Corbyn is still not convinced about Labour's antisemitism problem. And obviously Brexit has happened.
Then just imagine some unknown political force, perhaps one of the centrist parties we hear so much about, has concluded we really don't talk about Europe enough these days and calls another referendum: should Britain join the EU?
After the initial public euphoria at being able to continue debate about a bespoke customs arrangement has passed, how would you vote?
A new poll by Matt Singh, of Number Cruncher Politics, makes for fascinating reading and perhaps gives us a better indication of the public mood than polls asking how people would vote in a referendum on leaving.
Overall 47 per cent would not rejoin, 31 per cent would and the remaining 22 per cent don't know. Support for staying out was highest among men (51 per cent), the over-65s (64 per cent), Tory voters (71 per cent), non-graduates (53 per cent) and people in the north of England (53 per cent). And Leave voters, obviously.
Those keenest to jump back into the EU were 18-24-year-olds (42 per cent), Lib Dem voters (50 per cent) and people in Scotland and Northern Ireland (43 per cent, though the sample starts getting a bit small by then).
And Remain voters, obviously. But not by as much as you'd think. While 84 per cent of Leave voters would still want to stay out (4 per cent would rejoin), only 61 per cent of Remain voters would want to rejoin, with 16 per cent opposed and 23 per cent undecided.
This is the group briefly called Releavers after the referendum: they voted Remain but now accept the result and want the government to get on with it. It's what makes life harder for the myriad campaigns to halt, hamper or harm Brexit. They are not starting with the 48 per cent of June 2016.
The public mood is not moving against Brexit, and those who oppose it know that time is moving running out.
That's not to say that Brexit is all going swimmingly. Just today we've got news of a cabinet split on immigration — a key driver in the referendum campaign — with ministers at loggerheads about policy after Brexit. It makes The Times splash.
The Daily Telegraph splashes that the EU has comprehensively rejected British proposals for avoiding a hard border in Northern Ireland.
Britain is preparing to agree a "labour mobility and immigration regime" which sounds quite a lot like freedom of movement. The National Audit Office reveals that the £39 billion divorce bill will be closer to £50 billion. A British Second World War veteran is to sue to overturn the Brexit referendum.
There's trouble in EU paradise too, with Emmanuel Macron appearing to goad Angela Merkel yesterday as he tried to persuade her to back his ambitious plans for reform.
But I can't help feeling it's going to take more than that to shift opinion towards rejoining after going through the trauma of leaving.
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YESTERDAY'S QUESTION: I asked how green the Tories are, and you replied around 70 per cent. Full result here
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Today's cartoon from The Times by Peter Brookes
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On the head, son
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The Queen removed any remaining doubts over the Prince of Wales becoming the head of the Commonwealth when she gave him her explicit backing at the formal opening of the organisation’s summit at Buckingham Palace yesterday.
Theresa May will use a leaders' retreat (which sounds more fun than it is) at Windsor Castle to push for more action against Russia, although it's got a bit awkward with Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India, apparently refusing to blame Moscow for the Salisbury attack.
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Go Home blame game
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Theresa May's past continues to haunt her. A claim by Nick Timothy, her former adviser, that she had blocked the controversial Go Home vans, which were "revived and approved" while she was on holiday, was disputed by Downing Street.
In 2016 the Home Office said that the pilot was authorised by the former immigration minister Mark Harper but that May was "informed of the intention to pilot this campaign". Last night Downing Street said that remained the government's position.
And Labour have dug out a 2004 clip of May calling for a Home Office minister to resign over immigration failings, claiming they had “lost control” and she was “sick and tired” of ministers “not taking responsibility”. HuffPost has the story.
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The Sketch
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Worth a flutter? May tries to flag down assistance
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Patrick Kidd
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The flags were out all over London yesterday, around Parliament Square, up and down the Mall and standing upright at the back of the Buckingham Palace ballroom to honour the 53 countries attending the Commonwealth meeting. In Brexiting Britannia, these colourful cloths are more than just bunting. Each represents an opportunity for life after the EU, or so Theresa May hopes: 52 potential trade deals, 52 places where Liam Fox can be sent with a pen and a pleading look. Britain’s future is in flags. Or perhaps it’s just flaggin’.
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Read the full sketch
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The speeches we didn't hear
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It's been a busy week in Westminster — strangely like normal times with a war, a government shambles, a global summit and plastic straws to distract us from Brexit.
But for me the stand-out moment has to be the debate on antisemitism, when MP after MP gave the most appalling accounts of the abuse they have received for being Jewish, often in the name of the Labour leadership.
What was supposed to be a six-hour debate was halved to three because of the Syria debate, so there were several MPs who did not get chance to tell their stories. John Mann, Labour MP and chairman of the all-party parliamentary group against antisemitism, has spoken to many of them and writes for Red Box on what they would have said.
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Top priority
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Andrew Gwynne, Labour's shadow communities secretary and election coordinator, tells the House magazine that tackling antisemitism must be the "number one priority" for new Labour general secretary, Jennie Formby.
The Daily Mail reports that a Jeremy Corbyn supporter who starred in a Labour Party political broadcast referred previously to "evil Jews" and denied the right of Israel to exist.
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More tea, John
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John McDonnell's "tea offensive" with the City has not gone well. The shadow chancellor went to the offices of Bloomberg yesterday to offer an olive branch, inviting financiers to advise Labour on policy.
But eagle-eyed City types have noticed that this doesn't quite fit with what McDonnell has said in the past and "it would take a tremendous transformation to believe that he is now thinking quite differently".
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Read the full story
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Fallen angel
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A chunk of masonry broke away from a stone angel on parliament’s Victoria Tower yesterday, falling more than 70m.
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Read the full story
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Ones to watch today
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- The big final CHOGM press conference will see Theresa May face questions from journalists for the first time since the Windrush scandal broke.
- Theresa May has overtaken Anthony Eden to become the fourth shortest-serving PM since 1900. PA's Ian Jones has the chart.
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Polls apart
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A House of Lords report this week said the polling industry should get its house in order or face being banned from publishing surveys during election campaigns.
In response, Ben Page, chief executive of Ipsos Mori, argues that the problem is not about the polls themselves, but the way they are reported and he may well have a point.
However, he also takes issue with the reader polls we carry in Red Box, which no one has ever suggested should be taken seriously. Not least because when we asked if polls should be banned this week, 18 per cent voted "I never take part in polls".
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Press office comment of the day
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A good tale from Buzzfeed, which revealed that British officials refused to aid a French tax fraud and money-laundering investigation into a UK telecoms company, pointing out it was the biggest corporate donor to the Conservatives.
But the best bit was the initial response from HMRC denying that the correspondence had come from its offices: “This is the United Kingdom for God’s sake, not some third world banana republic where the organs of state are in hock to some sort of kleptocracy.”
Later, when the email had been verified, a different HMRC spokesman said that it was “regrettable”.
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Read the full story
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People of influence
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Ruth Davidson has been named as one of 2018's most influential people by Time magazine.
The Scottish Conservative leader made the cut alongside the likes of US President Donald Trump, London mayor Sadiq Khan, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Sadly nothing for Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn.
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Around the world
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NORTH KOREA: Kim Jong-un has dropped his demand that US troops withdraw from the Korean peninsula as a condition for relinquishing nuclear weapons, potentially removing one of the biggest obstacles to a lasting deal with Washington. Read the full story
USA: Maile Pearl Bowlsbey is less than two weeks old but she has already helped secure a historic change in the Senate. Her mother, Tammy Duckworth, is the first senator to give birth while in office and this week her colleagues voted to allow babies on the floor to accommodate her feeding schedule. Read the full story
FRANCE: Protesters smashed shop windows and clashed with riot police yesterday at marches called to unite students and workers across France who are opposed to President Macron’s reforms. Read the full story
TURKEY: Three thousand members of Turkey’s military are to be dismissed as part of President Erdogan’s purge after a failed coup, tightening his grip on power before early elections. Read the full story
CUBA: Cuba’s National Assembly has confirmed Miguel Díaz-Canel as president in a symbolic transfer of power from the Castro family that has ruled the island since 1959. Read the full story
ESWATINI: The kingdom of Swaziland has been renamed to mark the 50th anniversary of its independence from British rule. Read the full story
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Also in the news
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- RUSSIAN THREAT: MPs form group to study threats posed by Russia (The Times)
- CHARITY CHIEF: Save the Children's Sir Alan Parker resigns after launch of sex inquiry
(The Times)
- HOUSING TROUBLE: Developers ‘must stop taking buyers for granted’, says Javid (The Times)
- POWER FAILURE: Councils ‘could save millions on energy’ (The Times)
- UNFAIR WELFARE: Reform to benefits for terminally ill is fair, Nicola Sturgeon insists (The Times)
- FAKE NEWS: Kremlin 'bot' accounts spread fake news 45,000 times since Syria gas attack (The Daily Telegraph)
- FOOTBALL BOYCOTT: Macron, Merkel and other world leaders told they must stay away from Putin’s World Cup (The Sun)
- BOOK MARK: The libraries minister's libraries could close (HuffPost)
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| TMS |
| From the diary |
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By Patrick Kidd
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Derailed train of thought
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Nusrat Ghani, the rail minister, had her head in the clouds during transport questions. After answering one on HS2, she forgot that MPs can ask supplementaries and so didn’t pay any attention as Andy McDonald, the shadow transport secretary, asked about the sale of rail assets. There was a long pause as first Mr Speaker and then Chris Grayling, her boss, told her to answer, while Ghani could only stand and gulp like a goldfish before admitting that she didn’t have the foggiest about what McDonald had just said. Not that she did much better when he repeated himself. “Er . . . discussions are ongoing,” she replied.
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Read more from the TMS diary
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Agenda
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Today
- Philip Hammond, the chancellor, is in New York for meetings of the IMF and World Bank.
- The UK's financial settlement with the EU could differ from Treasury estimate, according to a report by the National Audit Office.
- A third of parents on less than the real living wage are skipping meals, according to a report by the Living Wage Foundation.
- Genomic medicine in the NHS is being held back by infrastructure delays, training budget cuts and low public awareness, according to a report by the science and technology committee.
CHOGM- A leaders' retreat at Windsor Castle marks the formal end of this year's Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting.
- Princes William and Harry attend a roundtable with African foreign ministers on conservation and the illegal wildlife trade.
House of Commons and House of Lords are not sitting
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Quiz answer
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A record 18 MPs will be taking part in Sunday’s London Marathon, none of whom stands much chance of beating the parliamentary best of 2hr 33min, held by The Times' very own Matthew Parris since 1985.
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@MattChorley
