Red Box - Thursday September 20 2018

PLUS: Corbyn aide fears "deep state"

Thursday September 20 2018

By Matt Chorley

Good morning,

Despite the best efforts of thirsty (plotting) MPs during the summer party season, the bubble seems to have burst on prosecco sales in Britain.

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Matt Chorley

Red Box Editor

@MattChorley

The briefing

Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, takes a hammering in the papers today as a damning inquiry into the train timetable fiasco this summer found that “nobody took charge”. It makes the splash in The Times, Daily Mail and The Guardian. Grayling admitted on the Today programme "we took at face value the assurances of the industry and we were wrong to accept that" and it underlined the need for a shakeup. But he rejected the suggestion he should resign, saying: "It's a system problem with the way the industry works – my job is to get this sorted out."
Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, meets Aung San Suu Kyi in Burma.
Overnight Ian Paisley, the suspended DUP MP, escaped having to fight for his seat after Westminster’s first recall petition fell 534 signatures short of the number needed to force a by-election.
Tom Watson, Labour's shadow culture secretary, today announces plans to ban gambling adverts during live televised sports.
Could you be a spy? Espionage requires logic, imagination and steel under pressure. Try the secret service test
Today's trivia: Which two MPs went on a Sound Of Music tour of Salzburg together, wearing costumes made from curtains? Answer at the bottom of today's email

The hills are alive

. . . with the sound of Brexit

The hills are alive with the sound of Brexit. Though it is not yet clear if it is a cheerful tune.

It was on the stage of the Felsenreitschule in Salzburg that the Von Trapp family from The Sound of Music gave their final performance before fleeing to Switzerland.

And last night Theresa May gave her final plea to EU leaders, urging them to act to make sure that this story has a happy ending.

She called on her European counterparts to "respond in kind" to the "serious and workable proposal" she had put forward in the Chequers white paper. The message was clear enough: the ball is in your court. I have budged as much as I can, losing two cabinet ministers in the process. Time for you to move.

But the plea came late — around midnight in the Austrian city and after the meal of sheep cheese with tomato and courgette salad, wiener schnitzel with potatoes and sacher torte. In all she had about ten minutes.

We await the response today, when the EU leaders meet again (for lunch, obviously) but this time without May, who will hang around outside. There are some reasons for the PM to feel a tiny bit more positive. There are signs of splits in the EU27 that we have not seen before.

A rebel group led by the Netherlands and Belgium and backed by Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, are ready to do a deal. The European Commission and the leaders of France and Germany, meanwhile, are said to be unwilling to make the concessions demanded by the British.

Tusk described Chequers as a “positive evolution”, while Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, has categorically ruled out British proposals on customs, a “common rule book” for industrial goods and measures to avoid a hard Irish border.

Brexit is incredibly complicated, and yet it can be quite simply: Britain is leaving the EU and May has committed to leaving the single market and customs union. She has also vowed to oppose a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The big sticking point is how the UK can be outside the EU yet have no border with it, when goods that criss-cross the border will be subject to different tax, customs and safety rules.

Proof of how Ireland is the sticking point comes from May's diary today: she is due to have a one-on-one chat with the taoiseach, Leo Varadkar.

May is opposed to anything that hives Northern Ireland off from the rest of the UK, shifting the EU border to the Irish Sea. Instead she has offered a plan to align the whole of the UK with the EU customs and regulatory checks that would otherwise necessitate a hard border.

Last night Sir Mike Penning became the latest Tory MP to declare Chequers as "dead as a dodo", repaying May's gift of a knighthood with a critical interview in the Telegraph in which he warned: "She has to wake up and smell the coffee and take her colleagues and the country with her.”

The performance art installation know as "David Davis" comes out of storage for a revivalist performance of "I still don't like Chequers". Taking to the stage in Munich he will call the PM's plan “devoid of democracy”.

Nicole Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, tells the BBC that the leave date must be extended beyond March next year. The prime ministers of Malta and the Czech Republic have said that they'd like another referendum. Andrej Babis, the Czech PM, told the Today programme: “It would be better maybe to make another referendum and maybe the people in the meantime could change their view.”

No chance of either happening, May made clear to last night's dinner.

Don't expect a big shift after today's meeting, the press conferences later are likely to see heels being dug in — in fact, it probably suits May to have the EU being difficult this side of the Tory party conference. But eventually one side, probably both, is going to have to blink to avoid no deal and Downing Street is hoping that the PM has done enough to get Brussels to budge more.

There will be no agreement at the planned summit in October, setting the stage for giving the EU the drama it loves. An emergency summit is likely in November, though this could slip to December.

History suggests that there will be more grandstanding on both sides, talk of a showdown and last-chance saloon before a late-night summit and a breakthrough in the early hours.

The hills are alive, with the sound of music. With songs they have sung for a thousand years. Which is roughly how long these Brexit talks have been going on for. At least it feels that way.

Battle for Brexit

ALL TALK: Businesses are increasingly concerned about uncertainty caused by Brexit, with the topic dominating conversations, according to the Bank of England’s chief economist. (The Times)

LABOUR DEBATE: Momentum has said that it will not block a debate on Brexit at the Labour conference, meaning that the party could see members back a second referendum on the conference floor. (The Guardian)

Red Box: Comment

Chequers deal is an attempt at a hybrid that Britain could accept

Anand Menon – UK in a Changing Europe

Our democracy is not fit for dealing with Brexit

Alexandra Runswick – Unlock Democracy

Tweet of the day

Today there is perhaps more hope but there is surely less and less time. On the Irish question and the framework for economic cooperation the UK’s proposal needs to be reworked. #Brexit

@eucopresident

YESTERDAY'S QUESTION: I asked which was better, and most of you said "exotic spresm". Full result here

Have your say

I asked how you thought Britain should deal with immigration. Elizabeth Ness said: “As a British citizen who has travelled extensively for business and pleasure throughout a long business career including an ex-pat spell in Italy I have been and am ashamed of the way we treat folk entering the UK. If I feel intimidated and repelled at the air border, how do non-Brits feel?”

Michael O'Loan said: “Why not give work permits to anyone who will be employed on a salary above the national average.” Bill Bradbury said the system should be open to “those that will do the jobs we won't and those that will do the jobs we can't”.

Alan Hawkes said: “Couldn’t we do it the other way around and have an emigration policy:something like the Athenians scratching a name on a pottery shard and dropping the ostrakon into a pot?”

Matthew Buchan had a novel plan to decide who can enter the country: “Simon Cowell sitting at the port in Dover with a big red button. The winners still have to perform at the Royal Variety, obviously.”

TODAY: Should there be a second referendum on Brexit? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we’ll use some of the best tomorrow..

The best comment

Don’t let Denis Norden’s gentle humour die with him

David Aaronovitch – The Times

Women victims still can’t get a fair hearing

Jenni Russell – The Times

Thumbs up for Corbyn in Stalin’s home town

Janice Turner – The Times

TV election debates are a constitutional abomination but they engage millions more people in our democracy

John Rentoul - The Independent

Labour’s plans for democracy must begin at home

Owen Jones - The Guardian

The cartoon

Today's cartoon from The Times by Peter Brookes

The headlines

PARANOID MUCH: Andrew Murray, one of Jeremy Corbyn's senior advisers, has claimed in the New Statesman that the "deep state" might be working to stop the Labour leader becoming PM. Is it possible that the agent working to stop Corbyn might be Corbyn himself? Tom Watson, the deputy Labour leader, is not convinced. He told the Today programme: "I genuinely don't know why he's reached that conclusion" and when he read the article it struck him as “a bit John Le Carré”. He added Murray should provide evidence for it, "otherwise it's just fake news". (The Times)

NAUGHTY BOY: Boris Johnson is likely to be reprimanded by Conservative headquarters on the eve of the Tory conference over his comparison of women wearing burkas to “letter boxes”. (The Times)

ASSAULT CLAIM: Police have reopened an investigation into assault claims against Carolyn Harris, the deputy leader of Welsh Labour. (The Times)

FRACK OFF: Conservative MPs are preparing to rebel against the government over its proposal to allow fracking companies to carry out exploratory drilling without planning permission. (The Times)

CHEER UP: James Cleverly, the Tory deputy chairman, has given an interview to The Spectator in which he says that the party is too gloomy and "forgot that people want to vote for something positive". He also throws open the door to ex-Ukippers, saying: "If they see what we’re doing and think, 'That’s a good idea', then yes. Come aboard. That’s what we want.’

DODGY DOSSIER: The Telegraph has got hold of a "dossier" circulated among Tory MPs which details the possible runners and riders for the leadership. It might have seemed more credible if it managed to spell the names of two cabinet ministers properly: It's Damian Hinds, not "Hines", and David Lidington, not "Liddington".

TV BAN: James Brokenshire, the housing secretary, has been "banned for life" from ITV's Good Morning Britain by Piers Morgan. (Daily Mirror)

Also in the news:

Westminster attacker Khalid Masood’s mother feared he would kill someone (The Times)
Reform of property law will help homeowners escape leasehold trap (The Times)
Facebook turned into travel agent for human trafficking (The Times)
Call to scrap tuition fees for the poor (The Times)

Red Box: Comment

We can extend life of the North Sea by backing tax reforms

Ross Thomson – Conservative MP

Chart of the day

Price rises for theatre tickets, clothes and computer games contributed to a surprise jump in inflation to a six-month high in August.

Read the full story

Around the world

NORTH KOREA: Kim Jong-un promised to tear down his missile launch pad and even his nuclear warhead factory, but insisted that President Trump make concessions of his own in the stalled negotiations over North Korean denuclearisation. Read the full story

USA: President Trump said that he found it “hard to imagine that anything happened” between Brett Kavanaugh, his Supreme Court nominee, and a woman who has accused the judge of sexually assault at a drunken party in 1982. Read the full story

Red Box: Comment

Britain must do more to help the Rohingya

Andrew Mitchell and Rushanara Ali – Conservative MP & Labour MP

TMS

From the diary

By Patrick Kidd

An unqualified success

Expertise has long been overrated in government. There’s a lovely vignette in James Barr’s new book, Lords of the Desert, about when Churchill asked Selwyn Lloyd to be a Foreign Office minister in 1951. “There must be some mistake,” Lloyd replied. “I do not speak any foreign language. Except in war, I have never visited any foreign country. I do not like foreigners.” He had not even spoken in a debate on foreign affairs in the Commons. This did not matter. “Young man,” Churchill replied, “these all seem to me to be positive advantages.”