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| Monday July 29 2019 |
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By Matt Chorley
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Good morning,
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So, it turns out I am a pre-washed potato.
I wrote last week that the logical conclusion of Boris Johnson’s reshuffle was that Andrew Bridgen would become a minister, and if he didn't then I was a pre-washed potato (which is how Bridgen made his millions).
I'll get my jacket.
- Thanks for the amazing response to our appeal for your favourite political moment of the last five years. Keep them coming, and if you need inspiration check out the responses to my tweet here. We will round them all up for our birthday special in the next few days. Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk
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The briefing
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- Awkward: Boris Johnson’s poll bounce of between three and ten points over the weekend is less than the uptick enjoyed by Theresa May three years ago.
- James Johnson, the outgoing Downing Street pollster, writes exclusively for Red Box today with a stark warning that the party risks losing votes on two fronts, undermined by infighting and division.
- Priti Patel, the new home secretary, spent her time on the back benches earning tens of thousands of pounds and accepting hospitality at Royal Ascot from a former fixer for the construction group owned by the Bin Laden family.
- Johnny Mercer, the Plymouth MP, was named a defence minister last night as Downing Street caught up with the fact that the promise of a high-profile veterans minister had not been kept. The Sun says Mercer will oversee a new Office for Veterans Affairs. Reminder: in October he called the government a “shit show”. As the reshuffle grinds on, Nadine Dorries becomes a health minister.
- A warning by Dominic Cummings, the new Downing Street chief, that leakers will be fired in a new "one strike policy" has been, er . . . leaked to the Telegraph.
- Sad times: today is the first Monday without pictures of Theresa May outside that church with that dog. Her successor does not seem to have gone to church yesterday, or if he did the notoriously publicity-shy PM didn’t have his picture taken.
- At 8am on Friday I noted that it was odd that the US president had not been on the phone to congratulate the new PM. Twelve hours later they finally spoke. Coincidence? Almost certainly. Just after the call reporters asked Donald Trump if he was going to invite Boris Johnson to the White House: “Let’s see what happens. Yeah, he’ll – he and I will spend a lot of — we just spent a lot of time when I was with the Queen in one of the great, most beautiful couple of days that I’ve ever experienced.” Except of course Johnson memorably was too busy campaigning to become PM to spend “a lot of time” with the president. Or indeed any.
- Today’s trivia question: When was the last time an MP for an English constituency was appointed a minister at the Scotland Office, as Robin Walker, the MP for Worcester, just has been? Answer at the bottom of today's email.
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Red Box: Comment
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Beware talk of a Boris bounce: Tory divisions still deter voters
James Johnson – Former No10 pollster
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“In the spring of last year I presented a graph to the cabinet. Projected on a giant television screen, it showed two zig-zagging lines going back 30 years. One line traced how divided voters thought the Conservative Party was. The other tracked the Conservatives’ share of the vote. When the division score shot up the Tory vote plunged. The message to ministers was to stop the public briefings, stop the Brexit infighting or the Conservative Party would be at risk. Some round the table nodded gravely. Others gave pointed looks at their colleagues. Boris Johnson, still in cabinet at that point — and sitting directly in front of that unflinching graph — stared down at the table.”
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Read the full article
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Everything is not awesome foursome
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“Everything is awesome, everything is cool when you're part of a team. Everything is awesome, when you're living out a dream.” The Lego Movie
It is not every politician who will cheerfully discuss having a “foursome”, never mind describing it as “awesome”, but then Boris Johnson is not every politician. Thank goodness.
Luckily this is just how the new PM likes to describe the United Kingdom of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Today he heads to Scotland where a longstanding political union is in crisis and on the verge of breaking up: the union between Scottish Conservatives and their London colleagues.
Relations between Johnson and Ruth Davidson are frostier than a penguin's undercarriage.
Cynics might think this is just preening by two alpha-politicians known for photo stunts, risqué jokes and connecting with voters in a way most can’t.
But this would overlook the very real tensions on policy, and the fact that one of them is a good deal more popular in Scotland than the other.
In the latest YouGov poll Scotland gives Johnson a thumbs down: 70 per cent are negative about him; 66 per cent don’t trust him and almost as many think he has extreme views and will make all the wrong decisions for the country.
Caveat: it is only a small sub-sample of the nationwide poll but you would need a rather large pinch of salt to convince yourself that there was not a problem for the Tories north of the border.
Remember that Theresa May only managed to scrape together a majority with the DUP in 2017 because Davidson had bucked the national trend and increased the tally of Scottish Tory MPs from one to 13. Without them, May would probably have been out of Downing Street. This remains true of Johnson.
Early in the Tory leadership campaign Team Johnson was worried that Davidson would “launch an exocet” in his direction, so ladled on the faux praise, rather ignoring the fact she hates that sort of thing.
It was a while coming but the exocet finally struck yesterday with Davidson using an article in the Scottish Mail on Sunday to declare: “I don’t think the government should pursue a no-deal Brexit and, if it comes to it, I won’t support it.” Which is very much not the line from No 10.
“I don’t have to sign a no-deal pledge to continue to serve,” Davidson added for good measure.
It came after he ignored her pleas not to sack David Mundell as Scottish secretary last week, followed by the decision to fill one of the junior ministerial jobs in the Scotland Office with Robin Walker, the MP for the not-quite-Scottish constituency of er . . . Worcester.
Johnson will meet Davidson today, although he might find his meeting with Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, a little warmer.
Johnson arrives in Edinburgh waving his chequebook (as he did when he went to Manchester on Saturday promising £3.6 billion for towns). Scotland will get slightly less: £300 million.
But it is seen as the new PM putting our money where his mouth is, after appointing himself as “Minister for the Union” in an attempt to burnish his unionist credentials. Keeping the union of four nations together was one of the things that used to get May fired up. Some colleagues doubt the same is true of her successor.
Sturgeon always argued that there should be a second independence referendum when there had been a change in the country’s circumstances. She assumed that the UK voting to leave the EU would do the trick but the polls have remained stubbornly flat, with No ahead, albeit it narrowly.
The appointment of Johnson as PM might change that and the SNP will be hoping to portray him as some kind of visiting colonialist today.
And don’t forget that YouGov poll of Tory members a month ago which showed that 63 per cent thought it acceptable to see Scotland leave the UK in order to get Brexit, while 59 per cent would rather Northern Ireland left too to ensure what is left of the country leaves the EU.
And just to complete the quartet of discontent, ITV News publishes a new YouGov poll for voting intention in Wales later, which shows the Tories up, Labour down, and the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru gaining. (Although the two main parties combined are below 50 per cent.)
Johnson might be living out a dream but not everyone is happy in the Tory team. Everything is not awesome in the awesome foursome.
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Governing by committee
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Three new cabinet committees will decide when and how we leave the EU, and whether it turns out to be a success.
There is a new economy and trade committee that will focus primarily on “Britain’s future relationship around the world”.
There is a “daily operations committee”, already nicknamed XO, which Michael Gove will chair every single day in Whitehall’s Cobra suit, to crank up preparations for no-deal.
And a new “exit strategy committee”, known in No 10 as XS, will be chaired by the PM twice weekly. Put those summer holiday plans on ice, minister.
A massive public information campaign is also being drawn up, to tell us how well it is all going.
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Read the full story
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Poll of the day
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The new cabinet will certainly seem very new indeed to most voters, who don't recognise many of the big names in Boris Johnson’s top team.
YouGov showed voters photos of cabinet ministers and asked them to name them. Sixty-nine per cent could name Michael Gove and half knew who Sajid Javid was. Less good news for Robert Buckland, the new justice secretary, or Robert Jenrick, the new housing secretary.
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I asked who would win a snap election and 55 per cent said the Tories. Full result here
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Have your say
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On Friday I asked where Boris Johnson should go on his tour.
Michael Tatnell said: "He should go to Rockall and stay there for 12 months."
Sylvia Crookes said: "Not Wensleydale please God. Reason: I live in Wensleydale."
Ann-Catherine Moerner said: "Mr Johnson should go to the Orkney Islands, he could hide at Skara Brae. And send doubles hurrying from place to place, always excusing themselves that they are going to an important meeting."
Deborah King said: "He should visit Uxbridge and South Ruislip. He has never lived in his constituency and only comes in for flying visits to have his photo taken."
TODAY: What should Ruth Davidson say to Boris Johnson today? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best tomorrow.
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The cartoon
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Today's cartoon from The Times by Schrank
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Need to know
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CORBYN CONFUSION: Thought you knew Labour’s Brexit policy was now to Remain? Think again. Jeremy Corbyn told Sky News’s Sophy Ridge that his plan was to win the election and then “reopen those talks with the EU” to deliver the Brexit many thought he was now campaigning against. It comes as Lord Mandelson called on Corbyn to quit – the first time he has done so. (The Times)
HIGH POLITICS: Bill Clinton smoked it but never inhaled. Andrea Leadsom tried it at university. Now a Liberal Democrat has become the first MP to be filmed taking cannabis on British television. (The Times)
DESTROYER DEPLOYED: A second Royal Navy warship has arrived in the Gulf to protect British merchant vessels at a time of increased tension with Iran. (The Times)
TRUST TRUSS: The NHS “will not be put up for sale” Liz Truss, the new International Trade Secretary, will say as she prepares to fly to America to start talks on a free trade deal with senior Trump aides. (The Daily Telegraph)
ISLAMOPHOBIA PROBE: Boris Johnson is facing calls to honour his commitment to an independent inquiry into Islamophobia in the Conservative party, after a senior minister refused to say that one would go ahead under his premiership. (The Guardian)
HEDGING BETS: A Brexit Party bus was found abandoned in a hedge late last night after it broke down in the Brecon Beacons. (The Independent)
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By-election watch
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Only three days until the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, triggered by the recall of the Tory MP Chris Davies after his conviction for expenses fraud.
Amazingly Davies is the Tory candidate again, while a Number Cruncher Politics poll on July 20 put the Lib Dems on 43 per cent and the Tories on 28 per cent. Labour are mocking Johnson for refusing to campaign in the seat.
Jo Swinson, the new Lib Dem leader, will also be eyeing another by-election gain in Sheffield Hallam after Jared O’Mara announced he would stand down as an MP following revelations in The Times about his treatment of female staff. O’Mara defeated Nick Clegg in the seat two years ago.
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Chart of the day
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The Tory leadership contest (and Boris Johnson’s victory) was by far the most noticed news story in July, according to the weekly Populus survey.
By contrast just 1 per cent said the Lib Dem leadership victory for Jo Swinson was their most noticed headline.
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Read the full story
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Now read this
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Bobi Wine, the Ugandan pop star turned politician, launched his bid for the top job by venturing into President Museveni’s traditional stronghold yesterday, where he drew ecstatic crowds, writes Jane Flanagan in Rukungiri.
In his first outing since confirming that he would challenge Mr Museveni’s 33-year rule, Wine risked continuing harassment and threats of arrest to take the presidential fight to the autocratic leader’s powerbase.
“Museveni will see it as an attack on his space by us, but Ugandans should be free to go wherever we want,” he told The Times on the journey to the western district of Rukungiri, where he was invited to speak to a church gathering.
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Read the full story
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The agenda
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Today
- Boris Johnson will continue his tour of the UK with a visit to Scotland.
House of Commons & House of Lords
- The Commons and Lords return on September 3.
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Today's trivia answer
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Today’s trivia question: When was the last time an MP for an English constituency was appointed a minister at the Scotland Office, as Robin Walker, MP for Worcester just has been?
Answer: 1886, when A. J. Balfour, the MP for Manchester East and future prime minister, was Scotland secretary. Thank you to David Torrance for that.
Send your trivia to redbox@thetimes.co.uk
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@MattChorley
