PLUS: Finishing Brexit could be bad for Boris
View in your browser
The Times and Sunday Times
Wednesday October 16 2019
Red Box
Matt Chorley
By Matt Chorley
Good morning,
And a happy birthday to Oscar Wilde, who would have been 165 today. Which is about how old I feel already this week and we haven't even got to the Brexit bit.

Luckily there are plenty of Wilde quotes on politics:

"Only people who look dull ever get into the House of Commons, and only people who are dull ever succeed there."

"I adore political parties. They are the only place left to us where people don't talk politics."

And my particular favourite:

"Democracy means simply the bludgeoning of the people by the people for the people."


LISTEN: Catch me every weekday morning giving a sneak preview of what's coming up in Red Box at 7.30am with Julia Hartley-Brewer at breakfast on TalkRadio. Listen here
Matt Chorley
Red Box Editor
Twitter icon @MattChorley
 
The briefing
  • It ain't over till it's over: Germany has warned that Brexit will need to be delayed until next year even if European Union and British negotiators agree a new deal by today.
  • No-so-super Saturday: Jacob Rees-Mogg is keeping MPs guessing about whether the Commons will be sitting this weekend, to their chagrin.
  • Boris Johnson invited Tory MPs into Downing Street last night with a simple message: trust me.
  • The prime minister is expected to chair a cabinet meeting at 4pm, which has twice been postponed in the hope of a breakthrough in deal talks.
  • Member states' representatives to the EU (minus the UK) meet in Brussels, where they will discuss whether they can accept the proposals on the table.
  • Esther Webber's trivia question: Who is the only (still) Conservative MP who voted Remain in 2016, but against May's deal all three times? Answer at the bottom of today's email.
Red Box: Comment
Tom Tugendhat
As Trump abandons Syria, Britain is not doing enough
Tom Tugendhat – chairman of the foreign affairs committee
Last Post for first-past-the-post?
The present system has clearly broken down. The results produced are not fair to any party, nor to any section of the community. In many cases they do not secure majority representation, nor do they secure an intelligent representation of minorities. All they secure is fluke representation, freak representation, capricious representation.

And that was Winston Churchill. Talking about the way we vote. In 1909.

Is it possible that 110 years later we are about to vote this way for the final time? Is it time to sound the Last Post for first-past-the-post?

There are many good things to be said for how we vote in general elections, putting a cross against one name to be our MP: it is easy to understand; there is a strong and straightforward link to a single local representative; there is a clear winner (locally); and it, used to be said, it delivered stable governments.

For a period of about 30 years this was true. But we haven’t had a single party government with a strong, workable Commons majority since 2005. The Tories haven’t done it since 1987. What the majorities secured by David Cameron in 2015 and John Major in 1992 gained in terms of surprise they lacked in stability and sustainability.

Politics has become more and more fragmented. The latest polls suggest the Tories will emerge as the biggest party.

The YouGov poll for The Times (chart below) shows some movement, continuing the trend of the Tories building support, now up to 37 per cent, the highest since the week before Britain failed to leave the EU on March 29. The Brexit Party continues to be squeezed, down to 11 per cent.

Interestingly, since July the proportion of 2017 Tory voters backing the Brexit Party has fallen from 30 per cent to 13, while among 2017 Labour voters it has gone from 9 per cent to 8 per cent.

The neck-and-neck battle for second place continues, with the volatile Lib Dems down in third on 18 per cent and Labour on 22. They have been swapping off and on for weeks.

And first past the post means that using Electoral Calculus, these percentages would give the Tories on 37 per cent of the vote about 413 seats (or 64 per cent of the seats); Labour would have 148 (or 22 per cent of seats) while the Lib Dems would have 32, just 5 per cent of seats from 18 per cent of the vote.

It is possible that the Lib Dems could get a higher vote share than Labour but less than a quarter of the number of seats. No wonder they announced last night that they plan to force a vote on a second EU referendum to hammer home their revoke message.

It is the received wisdom of the Westminster bubble that Boris Johnson securing a Brexit deal will lead to a Conservative poll surge as grateful voters carry him aloft through the streets, thanking him for saving the nation. The Brexit Party and the Lib Dems will fade away, deprived of their politics of Brexit grievance. The dithering opposition will be punished for having stood in his way. Or so the theory goes.

The man himself, who has something of a Churchill complex, should know his history: in 1945 voters thanked the man with the cigar for WINNING AN ACTUAL WAR by turfing him out of office. Crisis over, peace secured, voters gave a landslide to a Labour Party promising ambitious domestic reform.

"Voters do not reward you for what you've done," James Johnson, who was Theresa May's No 10 pollster, tells the Red Box podcast. "They're always looking for the next thing. That dynamic is absolutely is the key one because at the moment the Conservatives have a distinguishing factor with Labour on public services.

"They're able to say 'vote for us, get Brexit out of the way and then we can do these things'. With Labour you're just looking at more delay on Brexit so they won't be able to make these improvements to public services that you want. If that goes, it's quite difficult to see what that distinguishing factor is."

All of which means that the outcome of the election, whenever it comes, is even more unpredictable than many suppose. The look on most Labour MPs' faces suggests they are not expecting a landslide (they actually look like they have just been sick in a bin) but Jeremy Corbyn could emerge as the leader of the biggest party.

And what would the Lib Dems' first demand be, perhaps even more pressing than stopping Brexit? Proportional representation. Proper full-blown proportional representation. No daft AV, which even Nick Clegg didn't really like. They want a single transferable vote (STV), where candidates are ranked in multi-seat constituencies. And no referendum on it.

As one senior Lib Dem put it to me: "No messing about. We learnt our lesson from the coalition. If anyone wants our support, we want PR. End of. If the last few years have taught us anything it is that politics is totally and utterly f*****. This is how to fix it."

In 2017 Labour's policy on electoral reform was even vaguer than its policy on Brexit. It promised a convention on "extending democracy locally, regionally and nationally". But if once again the party fails to win a majority, in large part because of the failure to win back SNP seats in Scotland, the idea of putting coalitions on a formal footing might appeal.

So unless the Tories emerge from the election with a proper majority, someone is going to be picking up the phone to the Lib Dems.

Which means at this election when you put your cross in a box, it might be for the last time. One of the impacts of the Brexit result is that our electoral system becomes a lot more, well, European.
Poll of the day
Red Box: Comment
James Johnson
In a second referendum, whoever promises closure on Brexit will win
James Johnson – Former No10 pollster
LISTEN TO THE RED BOX PODCAST
I asked yesterday how the Queen's Speech affected how you might vote, and almost half said it would make you less likely to vote Conservative. Full result here
Have your say
Yesterday I asked how cabinet ministers should spend an unexpected free morning after their Tuesday meeting was postponed.

Max White said: "All of them should be teaching a class in a constituency school, and understand what teachers have to go through on a daily basis."

Derek Cannon said: "They should spend the time catching up on their neglected reading scheme, to bring themselves up to speed on reality."

Jonathan Bell said: "What they do on any other day off: spend their time making up lies and cunning ways to avoid answering perfectly reasonable questions, when invited to appear on the Today programme."

Edward Chorlton said: "Have a discussion with someone who does not agree with their policies to help balance the confirmation bias of their usual conversations."

Enda Cullen said: "They should line up and leak to Matt Chorley!" (Can recommend.)

TODAY: What should Boris Johnson say to EU leaders in Brussels tomorrow? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best tomorrow.
The best comment
Daniel Finkelstein
Truth can only take you so far in politics
Daniel Finkelstein – The Times
Roger Boyes
Don't be surprised at Poles returning home
Roger Boyes – The Times
Alice Thomson
Female offenders need help, not prison
Alice Thomson – The Times
Those dastardly Tories are just offering voters what they want
Mark Wallace - The i
Why we should take Boris Johnson's abuse of history seriously
Rebecca Rideal - Prospect
The cartoon
Today's cartoon from The Times is by Peter Brookes
Need to know
BAD NEWS: Jeremy Corbyn’s chances of forcing his party to back an election have been hit by an internal briefing that deepened fears among MPs of a heavy defeat at the polls. (The Times)

DISORDERLY QUEUE: Only a small fraction of companies are fully prepared for no-deal, risking long delays at the border if Britain crashes out of the EU on October 31, according to Whitehall’s spending watchdog. (The Times)

THE A-TEAM: Esther McVey, the housing minister, will send a crack team of specialist planners, designers or ecologists into councils that are struggling to approve new developments and regeneration schemes. (The Times)

DUP THE ANTE: The British prime minister spent the eleventh hour haggling with Arlene Foster, leader of the DUP, over a big cash payment for the region to help secure her support for the deal taking shape in Brussels. (FT)

DEAD DEADLINE? Leaked Conservative leaflets suggest the party accepts the UK might not have left the EU by the time it has to fight an election. (BBC)

PFI SPY: Taxpayers are shelling out billions of pounds in wasteful payments under controversial private finance initiative contracts that have locked hospitals, schools and police forces in the iron grip of contractors. (The i)
Red Box: Comment
Will Quince
No one should ever have to endure the loss of a child
Will Quince – Welfare minister
Jo Bibby
Young people's economic insecurity is damaging their health
Jo Bibby – The Health Foundation
Quote of the day
"Bollocks!"
Labour's Emily Thornberry hits back in the Commons as Tory minister Alok Sharma says Jeremy Corbyn supports Venezuela's "despotic ruler" Nicolas Maduro.
Ask again
Nicola Sturgeon used her speech at the SNP conference to say she will ask for a second independence referendum before the end of the year, which would allow it to take place in 2020.

She argued that the UK government had no right to block the request and that its opposition to another referendum was “not sustainable”.

The first minister has resisted demands from some in her party simply to begin independence negotiations with British ministers if the request were rejected and the SNP then returned a majority of Scottish MPs in a general election.

She highlighted the Catalonian independence referendum, where the result was ignored and separatist leaders have this week been sentenced to between nine and 13 years in prison, as a warning of what happened when the law was ignored.
Red Box: Comment
Rachael Hamilton
We must reject a hard border between Scotland and England
Rachael Hamilton – Conservative MSP
Now read this
We were glued to the television, watching the big bank holiday film The Magnificent Seven, when the bomb went off. Ciaran, my younger brother, and I were on the settee. Brian, the eldest, was in an armchair. My father was at the table behind us, pretending not to watch Yul Brynner, and my mother was in the kitchen, probably making tea. She was always making tea.

Our house shook. The walls seemed to wobble, the glass in the windows definitely rattled, ornaments teetered. I remember the roar of the explosion and how it rumbled on and on and on.

Sean O’Neill, who grew up during the Troubles, returns to his home town to find out how people feel now with the border at stake again.
Read the full story >
TMS
From the diary
By Patrick Kidd
The death of enmity
Cross-party friendship is in short supply these days so it was good to hear Lord Dobbs, the author and Tory peer, say that Baroness Smith of Basildon, Labour’s leader in the Lords, once “died in my arms”. This was during a pre-Christmas “theatrical jolly” in which Dobbs played the romantic lead and Smith the impressionable maiden. “We were both tragically miscast,” he says. “Isn’t fiction wonderful?”
Read more from the TMS diary >
 
The agenda
Today
  • Meeting of the committee of the permanent representatives of member states to the EU, minus the UK.
  • Boris Johnson chairs a cabinet meeting at 4pm which has twice been postponed to allow for further negotiations.
  • Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, speaks at a climate change conference hosted by the Welsh government in Cardiff.
  • Caroline Dinenage, the health minister, launches the next phase of an adult social care recruitment campaign.
  • 9.30am Matt Hancock, the health secretary, takes part in a discussion on the state of healthcare at the GIANT health conference.
  • 9.30am The National Beef Association, the British Meat Processors Association and ABP UK give evidence to the environment, food and rural affairs committee.
  • 9.30am UK Consumer Price Indices including inflation target.
  • 9.30am Simon Byrne, the PSNI chief constable, gives evidence to the Northern Ireland affairs committee on organised crime gangs.
  • 9.30am Thérèse Coffey, the work and pensions secretary, gives evidence to the work and pensions committee.
  • 10am Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, gives evidence to the exiting the EU committee on the progress of negotiations.
  • 10am Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, gives evidence to the international trade committee.
  • 10am Robert Buckland, the justice secretary, gives evidence to the justice committee.
  • 1.30pm Alister Jack, the Scottish secretary, gives evidence to members of the Scottish affairs committee.
  • 2pm Ministers from the Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence attend a conference at Lancaster House marking the 70th anniversary of the Geneva Conventions.
  • 2.15pm Jim Harra, HMRC interim chief executive, gives evidence to the Treasury committee.
  • 2.15pm Sir Ivan Rogers, former UK permanent representative to the EU, and representatives of the Hansard Society and Institute for Government give evidence to the European Scrutiny Committee on post-Brexit scrutiny of EU law.
  • 2.30pm Nicky Morgan, the culture secretary, gives evidence to the digital, culture, media and sport committee.
  • 2.30pm Richard Heaton, the Ministry of Justice permanent secretary, and Susan Acland-Hood, the HM Courts and Tribunals Service chief executive, give evidence to the public accounts committee.
  • 3pm Gerry Adams, the former Sinn Féin president, speaks at the National Press Club in Washington DC about Brexit and Ireland.
  • 6pm Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, and Baroness Williams, the equalities minister, are among the guests at the PinkNews annual awards ceremony.
  • 8pm Rory Stewart, the independent London mayoral candidate, takes part in an event at the Mile End Institute.
House of Commons
  • 11.30am Third day of debate on the Queen's Speech.
  • Adjournment debate on the future of Portishead railway.
House of Lords
  • 11am Introduction of Lord Barwell and Lord Davies.
  • Debate on the Queen's Speech (Brexit, trade, foreign affairs and defence continued).
Today's trivia answer
Esther Webber's trivia question: Who is the only (still) Conservative MP who voted Remain in 2016, but against May's deal all three times?

Answer: Jo Johnson. Thanks to Denis Doherty for that one.

Send your trivia to redbox@thetimes.co.uk
 
Follow us
Facebook Twitter Email
This email is from a member of the News UK group. News Corp UK & Ireland Limited, with its registered office at 1 London Bridge Street, London, SE1 9GF, United Kingdom is the holding company for the News UK Group and is registered in England No. 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.

To see our privacy policy, click here.