Trade, business immigration and sanctions on Iran were the first subjects in the minds of London-based lawyers as they woke up to the shock realisation that Donald Trump had won the race to become the 45th president of the United States.
Trading places
On trade, Trump had seemed keener than Barack Obama to cut a quick deal with the UK once the May government has disentangled the country from the EU. However, Bernardine Adkins, a partner at Gowling WLG, an Anglo-Canadian law firm, warned against getting our hopes up.
“Relief at the UK being at the front of the queue for a US trade agreement may well dissolve as we realise just how far apart the UK is to ‘fortress America’ in its approach to free trade,” she said.
She pointed out that Liam Fox, the secretary of state for international trade, recently quoted Adam Smith’s stance that it was a “moral right” for people to buy whatever they wanted from those who sell it to them cheapest. That position contrasts sharply with Trump’s rhetoric on dumped steel and the failure of the political classes to act.
Doing green card business
Business immigration is another area that will have City hearts in mouths. During the campaign, Trump suggested that he would put a hold on new “green cards”.
“It is unclear yet how this might be implemented, if at all,” commented Claire Nilson, a lawyer with the transatlantic firm Faegre Baker Daniels.
“Mr Trump is, first and foremost, a business person,” she said, “so it will be interesting to see how commercial pragmatism may enter the equation." She also pointed out that on the election trail, Trump's robust statements on immigration focused on those already in the US without authorisation. “His employment-focused immigration policies are less clear but are likely to place emphasis on requiring employers to hire US workers."
Going nuclear over Iran
Renegotiating the deal cut last year between various western powers and Iran over the latter’s nuclear development programme also looks to be a tough call for the White House new boy.
“Whilst there have been fears about a unilateral re-imposition of sanctions,” said Patrick Murphy, a partner Clyde & Co, “the reality is that it would be very difficult for the US to re-impose sanctions that affected European companies if the EU did not impose the same sanctions. It brings with it the possibility of a transatlantic quarrel and countervailing measures from the EU."
Supreme grief
Trump was the first presidential candidate to commit to nominate a Supreme Court justice from a list of judges released before the election. Aaron Streett, a partner in the Houston headquarters of Baker Botts, forecast the new president will be under "intense pressure" to select one of the conservative judges on that list to replace Justice Scalia after his death last February.
If Trump does not keep his promise, said Streett, "he will open an immediate rift with many conservatives who supported his candidacy primarily because of the importance of nominating conservative Justices to the Supreme Court".
Who will be the attorney?
When it came to speculating on the justice policy of a Trump administration and the question of who will succeed Loretta Lynch as the US attorney-general, lawyers dived for cover.
There was broad media speculation that Rudy Giuliani – the former mayor of New York who took a break from the partnership at Greenberg Traurig to get stuck into the Trump campaign – had an inside track on the post. However, none of the transatlantic law firms or the London offices of US law firms was keen to speculate on names.
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