Red Box - Tuesday October 27 2020

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Tuesday October 27 2020

By Matt Chorley

Good morning,

If you want to win people over to your cause, I'm not sure harassing an elderly national treasure is the way to go about it. The tied-died printworks-botherers at Extinction Rebellion were upset that Sir David Attenborough had warned that their law-breaking could alienate supporters.

So as if to prove his point they turned up outside his house. Which might be the only bit of trick or treating anyone gets to do this year.

Matt Chorley

The Times

@MattChorley

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The briefing

The new awkward squad is making its presence felt this morning, as 54 MPs from the Northern Research Group have warned the prime minister that their constituencies risk being left behind unless there is a clear strategy for exiting lockdown restrictions.

Writing in Red Box, two of their number - Sara Britcliffe and Paul Howell - caution that paying for Covid by "downgrading the levelling-up agenda" would mean that "northern constituents and the generations to come are left behind".

Our Patrick Maguire was the first to get hold of the incendiary letter, and he reports that Mark Spencer, the chief whip, was desperate for it not to get out while the prime minister is also said to be furious. Doesn't sound like harmony is breaking out any time soon.

Unlikely to help: more than 900,000 further people are facing the imposition of tighter coronavirus restrictions after the government decided to move Nottingham and Warrington into Tier 3.

He speaks: Boris Johnson addressed the cameras on the issue of free school meals during the holidays amid rumours of a change of heart. The message lacked some clarity, somehow sparking headlines promising more cash, hinting at a U-turn, refusing to U-turn and defending his handling.

The row is far from over as it emerged that a £63 million grant for vulnerable families highlighted by Johnson yesterday was not ringfenced for helping children and has already been spent by councils in many cases on expenses such as PPE.

In a glimmer of better news this morning: Tom Whipple reports older people have a strong immune response to Oxford’s vaccine, raising hopes that it will protect all sectors of society.

Trivia question: Who is the youngest sitting Conservative MP? Answer at the bottom of today's email

RED BOX: COMMENT

We need a Northern Economic Recovery Plan to build back better from Covid

Paul Howell and Sara Britcliffe – Conservative MPs

Crisis of confidence

One day when this is (hopefully) all over we will be subjected to a BBC2 nostalgia clips show called I Love 2020. Or maybe I Didn't Love 2020.

There will be some out-of-work comedians (oh God, it's going to be me, isn't it?) taking a sideways look at reminiscing about facemasks and banana bread and patio heaters and other breakout stars of the year.

But one will surely dominate. A man who was unknown back in January but who has since been immortalised in song, paint and fashion.

A man who I once described looking increasingly like a Churchill sex doll that has sprung a puncture.

A man called Chris Whitty. Professor Chris Whitty to you.

I had begun to wonder if the sheen had started to come off. Much of the criticism aimed at Boris Johnson's "confused" handling of the pandemic could actually be laid at the door of the chief medical officer (and the other boffins).

Take masks: for weeks and weeks we were told – by The Science – that they weren't necessary, and could even be counterproductive. Now they are a part of everyday life.

And in a recent Times Radio focus group of swing voters, something interesting had happened to their view of Johnson. Initially voters had told us he was doing a good job in a difficult situation, then that he was doing a bad job, but in the most recent group last week the blame had shifted.

Yes, the PM was making a hash of it, they almost unanimously said, but this was down to the "bad advice" he was getting from "his advisers".

James Johnson, a former Downing Street pollster, recalls similar things being said in the dying days of Theresa May's premiership. Don't kick a PM when they're down. Blame the advisers.

So have voters turned on Whitty, and his on-off sidekick Sir Patrick Vallance? The answer, bluntly, is no.

Some new YouGov polling reveals that voters still seem to have more faith in the scientists. On the straight question of likeability, 45 per cent said they were favourable towards Whitty, a 19 per cent unfavourable. This gives a "net favourability" of +26.

Vallance is less well-known: 53 per cent don't have a view. But of those that do, 30 per cent are positive, 17 per cent negative, net +13. Compare that to Johnson, who had a net score of +29 while he was ill in mid-April, but who is now at -19.

As an aside it is interesting that favourability towards the Conservative Party (-24) is close to that of its leader (-19). However, for Labour it is -11 while Sir Keir Starmer is +5, suggesting that he is outperforming his own party. Although this is down from a peak of +12 a month ago.

On the specific question of dealing with coronavirus, the figures are repeated.

Asked how much confidence, if any, voters have in their leaders to make the right decisions when it comes to the coronavirus outbreak, 33 per cent have confidence in Johnson, but 60 per cent do not, giving a net confidence rating of -27.

Whitty, by contrast, has the best rating for anyone polled: 47 per cent have confidence in him, 21 per cent don't. Net confidence: +26.

Vallance also scores well, on net confidence +13, just behind Nicola Sturgeon on +14. What is striking about this is that by and large Johnson and Sturgeon have taken reasonably similar decisions, most recently pursuing local lockdowns over national action, yet she consistently outpolls the PM.

Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, is still in the positive, with 43 per cent saying they have confidence in him and 36 per cent having not very much or no confidence. But the Sunak sheen is coming off: this is down from April, when 52 per cent were confident that he would take the right decisions.

And poor old Matt Hancock's popularity is disappearing so fast we can only assume Dido Harding was put in charge of keeping track of it. The health secretary now has the confidence of just 21 per cent, which has halved since April, while those lacking confidence has hit 58 per cent, giving a net confidence rating of -37.

Why does all this matter? In an increasingly (depressingly) polarised debate about how best to proceed, that England's chief medical officer retains the confidence of about half of voters means Whitty remains an asset.

In recent weeks he has struck a more cautious note than the PM, most notably when he warned on the day that the new three tier system was announced that it would not "be enough to get on top of" the pandemic.

The real challenge for Johnson and Downing Street is that the scientists, including the Sage committee, still have a cachet with journalists and voters. When they call for a lockdown, it is easy to think it is the right thing (as Starmer showed by jumping on the bandwagon, only for voters not to notice at all).

However, the PM has to balance the health, economic and social impacts of every decision. As Margaret Thatcher remarked: "Advisers advise and ministers decide."

But what this polling shows is that if this really is a country that has had enough of experts, it thinks even less of our political leaders.

Join me for more on Times Radio from 10am

RED BOX: COMMENT

Why should Welsh ministers dictate which products are essential?

Andrew RT Davies – Welsh shadow health minister

Need to know

UNEQUAL TREATMENT: Black, Asian and minority ethnic communities have suffered disproportionately during the pandemic as a result of decades of structural discrimination, according to a review led by Labour's Baroness Lawrence. (The Times)

NOT-SO-COMFORTABLY OFF: Middle-class and older workers face long spells out of work and pay cuts of more than 25 per cent as companies axe staff, experts have predicted. (The Times)

ALL RISE: Amy Coney Barrett was confirmed as Supreme Court Justice last night, tilting the balance of America’s most powerful judicial body further to the right with a week to go before the president election. (The Times)

STARMER DRAMA: Police are investigating a road accident involving Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, which left a cyclist injured in north-west London. (The Sun)

KARIE ON REGARDLESS: Karie Murphy, Jeremy Corbyn’s former chief of staff, has said she is proud of Labour’s record on antisemitism, ahead of the equalities watchdog's report on the issue. (The Guardian)

RED BOX: COMMENT

The Integrated Review must revolutionise our approach to data

Darren Jones – APPG on technology and national security

Yesterday Esther asked what the government should do on the tricky issue of free school meals, and more than three quarters of you are expecting a U-turn. Full result here.

RED BOX: COMMENT

PM’s promises on buses have failed to turn up

Robert Goodwill – Conservative MP

Have your say

Yesterday Esther asked which sportsman or woman you'd like to see in the cabinet.

Chez Newman: "With all round view, ability to plan ahead, the cabinet member can only be a snooker player. I would appoint Dennis Taylor. With his upside-down specs he would have extremely clear vision."

Simon Evers: "Eoin Morgan - a superlative cricket captain who speaks sense, remains calm and sensible at all times (including in a crisis), allows his team their heads where appropriate but also sets the tone for the side and leads from the front."

Rosita Sherrard: "Joe Wicks. Not quite a sportsman but he could give them all a jolly good 30-minute workout before cabinet to get the blood running round their brains so they don’t make so many stupid decisions and to remember that what they are saying now is exactly the same as they said two minutes ago."

Tony Yates: "The cabinet may benefit from having the Olympian sailor Ben Ainslie on board as he could help them with techniques for navigating dark, muddy waters, without a paddle."

Michael Jack: "I would propose Lewis Hamilton. He is a winner, does not come from a socially advantaged background, can get his message across, understands key social issues, is well organised, has a global perspective on life, relates to young people, is steady under pressure and likes dogs."

Nick Price: "My opinion about Raheem Sterling has changed after I read the interview with him in the Sunday Times magazine. I propose him as communities minister."

Jamie Bye: "Ian Botham. He may be retired but I bet he could hit the abject capitulation Withdrawal Agreement off the pitch."

John Andrews: "I’d nominate Jessica Ennis Hill. She’d bring grace, style, charm and achievements to a cabinet lacking such attributes, as well as expertise at being a working mum."

TODAY: Which northerner should MPs recruit to help champion the cause of the Northern Research Group? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best tomorrow.

The best comment

Britons are weary of angry, divisive politics

Rachel Sylvester – The Times

Beware the claim that words cause violence

Melanie Phillips – The Times

Rashford’s support on the left wing got it wrong

Giles Coren – The Times

What Keir Starmer can learn from Andy Burnham

James Frith - The i

Do the Tories even know why they’re fighting Marcus Rashford?

Isabel Hardman - Spectator

The cartoon

Today's cartoon from The Times by Morten Morland

RED BOX: COMMENT

Polio vaccine can guide our fight against coronavirus

Theo Clarke – Conservative MP

TMS

From the diary

By Jack Blackburn

Your name, deputy PM?

Frank Bough, who died last week, was an unflappable broadcaster but even the coolest head can melt in the heat of the moment. He once interviewed the Tory grandee Rab Butler and, as he started, forgot the former deputy PM’s name. He called Butler, “My friend on the right”, causing his producer to joke: “At least you didn’t get his politics wrong.”

At Oxford, Bough was trusted as a safe pair of feet, earning a footballing blue as a defender. His coach, the former pro Jimmy Hill, was very fond of him, saying: “The only unkind thing I can say about Frank is that, in the Varsity match, the Cambridge centre forward scored three goals.”