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| Wednesday May 20 2020 |
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By Matt Chorley
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Good morning,
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Arise Sir Tom! Captain Tom Moore, the Second World War veteran who raised an incredible £33 million for the NHS has been knighted.
I'm sorry to report that Poppy the dog is absolutely furious. She has been walking around our garden for weeks with no hint of a damehood.
LISTEN: Catch me every weekday morning giving a sneak preview of what's coming up in Red Box at 7.30am with Julia Hartley-Brewer at breakfast on TalkRadio. Listen here
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The briefing
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- UK confirmed cases: 248,818 – ⬆️ 2,412 | UK deaths: 35,341 – ⬆️ 545
- The virtual Commons rises for the half-term recess, with MPs expected to be back in person from June 2.
- Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, warned that Britain is facing a recession on a scale “we haven’t seen” before and the economy could be permanently scarred after the lockdown.
- Robert Buckland, the justice secretary, has admitted that the crisis in care homes came as ministers prioritised the NHS. He told Sky News this morning: "We protected the NHS, we ramped up our capability which meant that it didn't thankfully fall over at a time of huge pressure." Asked if the government policy was to focus on the NHS to the detriment of care homes, he replied: "That's right and I think it was absolutely essential."
- The reopening of schools in ten days’ time was thrown into doubt last night after one of the government’s most senior scientific advisers suggested that it would depend on an effective test, trace and isolate system.
- Professor Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University, said that coronavirus fatalities are falling at such a pace it may be “difficult to find” people with the virus on their death certificate by the end of June.
- Jeremy Hunt, the chairman of the health select committee, called for Downing Street to follow the example of the Bank of England and publish the scientific advice it receives about coronavirus.
- Ministers have raised the prospect that lockdown restrictions could be eased in July to allow some pubs with beer gardens to reopen for the best of the summer sun.
- A "Pick for Britain" website designed to help UK workers to find jobs picking fruit and vegetables crashed because of a surge in visitors after the environment secretary urged people to sign up. Maybe they should have picked some IT experts.
- The end of the pier show: The Lib Dems this morning cancelled their party conference in Brighton, after the Labour Party pulled the plug on its gathering due to be held in Liverpool.
- Today's trivia question: Neil Kinnock's first Labour conference as leader was overshadowed by footage of him falling in the sea on which beach? Answer at the bottom of today's email.
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The number No10 is actually worried about
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You would think – what with, well, everything – that the government had better things to worry about than the seating plan.
Yet the apparent need to get MPs back into parliament has been dominating the conversation in Westminster. How to return the Commons to something approaching normal while observing social distancing rules?
And if you want to be really cynical for a moment (I know you're not but some other people do think the worst), the question is how do you bring in some more vocal supporters to fill the terraces when the prime minister faces his weekly match against his Labour opponent?
Jacob Rees-Mogg had an idea. At a meeting of the House of Commons Commission, which oversees the running of the chamber, he proposed a way to get more Tories safely behind the PM: put them in plastic boxes.
Social distancing rules mean ministers must space out on the front bench, the second row is kept empty, and then the third row is also marked out with two-metre gaps.
I understand that Rees-Mogg proposed putting up Perspex screens behind the PM, "like they have in the supermarket", which would allow MPs to be seen on the second row without breathing all over ministers.
When it was suggested that MPs would still need to space out, it sounds like things descended into a farcical conversation involving putting screens on the side of each MP, and then on top to create essentially a David Blaine-style Perspex box, before someone pointed out that this would mean each box would need an oxygen supply.
The idea of MPs sitting behind screens in a construction that was part-Sainsbury's checkout, part-greenhouse, part-Amsterdam window, was met with derision. "There was a robust exchange," reveals one Commons source, who says both Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons Speaker, and Ian Ailles, the director general of the House of Commons, expressed their astonishment at Rees-Mogg's suggestion.
Or as another source put it to me this morning: "People thought he was taking the piss."
Apparently not. A source close to Rees-Mogg confirms he suggested it "but the commission wasn’t interested".
Even so, Rees-Mogg is ploughing on with the bigger battle for the Commons to return after the recess on June 2 in person, with an end to the "virtual parliament" experiment. It is hard to tell schoolchildren and workers to return if MPs haven't but there remain real questions about the impact on those from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, the over-70s and those with disabilities.
Still, the Tory whips have become frustrated by doing their business virtually. With the mice scattered across the country, they have been playing too much. Conservative MPs, especially those in the new intake, have been squabbling in WhatsApp groups.
The Tory old guard are out and about demanding a lifting of the lockdown to put the economy first, while some of the newer, northern MPs are demanding billions here, there and everywhere for pet causes, some worthier than others.
In Downing Street, it has to be said, there are bigger concerns. The crisis in care homes has, frankly, taken many by surprise. Having worked so hard to (successfully) "protect the NHS", it seems as if coronavirus was left to sweep through the elderly and vulnerable. At best a miscalculation of risk, at worst a deliberate policy decision which sentenced thousands to their deaths.
Those inclined to think the worst will no doubt be cheered by the latest YouGov polling which shows the government's approval ratings now in negative territory. Some 39 per cent of people approve, while 42 per cent disapprove, a net score of -3. This is down from net approval of +26 after the lockdown was imposed. It is worth pointing out that most governments spend the entire time in negative territory: indeed when Johnson won his majority in December it stood at -37.
Similarly, the latest YouGov voting intention poll has the Tories on 48 per cent, down two points on a fortnight ago, and the lowest since mid-February. Labour are up three points to 33 per cent. Again, before anyone gets too excited, compare that to the December election result, and Labour are up one point and the Tories up four.
On the latest episode of the Red Box podcast, I pull the polls apart with Deborah Mattinson, who was Gordon Brown's pollster, James Johnson, who was Theresa May's pollster, and YouGov's Chris Curtis.
Each agreed that in recent weeks we have seen that politics is back, in part because Sir Keir Starmer is a notable improvement on his predecessor, and in part because coming out of the lockdown is a good deal more complicated, nuanced and debatable than going into it. James Johnson cautions against "getting a bit too overexcited" about small movements in polls, at a time when the government is still in a much better place than most governments manage.
Mattinson points out that we must not forget it was Johnson who won in those crucial northern seats just five months ago, something that those who dislike him struggle to understand.
At one focus group in the Lancashire constituency of Hyndburn, a woman told Mattinson that Johnson had "de-snobbified the Tory party". Those on the left keen to paint him as an out-of-touch Old Etonian toff who inauthentically ruffles his hair might choke on their crushed avocado at that, but his enemies hating him more is not the same as more people hating him.
One No 10 source plays down the Starmer surge, such as it is. "People are excited like they are when they see a dog perform a trick or a baby doing something for the first time. 'Isn't it amazing that Labour is vaguely competent?' Is there real concern about him? No not really. Will he play well in Barnsley? That remains to be seen."
Those predicting a Churchill-style turfing out of the prime minister after losing the confidence of the public might well remember that the hated-warmonger Tony Blair was returned to office two years after his Iraq war sparked widespread protests with a majority of 66. Nobody managed that again until Johnson last year.
Not that there is much time taken up thinking about polls in Downing Street right now. On the surface spirits in Johnson's team remain good, though sombre. However, the mood inside government turned not last week when the announcement of the easing of some restrictions descended into chaos (or a "shit show" as one person described it to me) but when the number of deaths became the highest in Europe. There is no way of spinning that.
It is amazing the extent to which Johnson's absence effected Downing Street, and his mere presence has lifted the mood. "At least he has a personality," says one No 10 insider, in not a ringing endorsement for their colleagues. "He has a priceless capacity to cheer people up," says another.
In part the reason he is seen to be struggling is that now is not the time for bonhomie. The death toll climbs, the questions about care homes and testing mount, the dole queues grew and the lockdown grinds on.
He has barely been seen since returning to work from his illness. "One thing I'm seeing ... is a growing sense that he's a bit invisible actually and they hadn't expected that," Mattinson adds. "They know he was ill, and then he had the baby and I know all of that. But actually they really are expecting him, I think, to be a bit more centre stage than he is."
There is talk of a "big speech" though nothing is imminent. Work is being done on recasting the "levelling up" agenda, with the events of the last few weeks only serving to emphasise the need to invest in public services and bolster the economy across the country, as promised in the 2019 Tory manifesto.
"The Conservatives have a bigger opportunity than they probably ever have had before," YouGov's Chris Curtis tells the podcast. "Cementing themselves as the party of the NHS. If they can come out of this, say they've protected the NHS throughout this crisis and then also just spend an absolute ton of money on the NHS afterwards, potentially even say, 'we're the Conservative Party raising taxes to save the NHS' that could really help them mitigate against one of their biggest weaknesses in the shorter term."
The truth is though that right now there is only one number that matters: not Johnson's polling numbers, nor Sir Keir's, which can both go up or down.
It is the death toll from this appalling virus, which only goes up and up. At the moment of reckoning, if the public believes – fairly or not – that government decisions or dereliction cost lives, the punishment will be swift and severe.
And not even a Perspex screen will protect them from that.
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Poll of the day
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Listen to Red Box, the news podcast of the year
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Around the world
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US: President Trump faced criticism for announcing he was protecting himself with a daily dose of an anti-malarial drug, unproven to prevent or cure coronavirus, after his White House valet tested positive. Read the story
EU: France and Germany are facing a rebellion over their plans for a €500 billion EU coronavirus relief package that opponents say will saddle poorer eastern states with debt. Read the story
CHINA: Farmers are being offered cash to stop breeding exotic animals as pressure grows to crack down on the illegal wildlife trade that has been blamed for the coronavirus outbreak. Read the story
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Need to know
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CHANNEL HOPPING: The BBC is planning to cut funding to BBC One, Two and Four in order to double spending on the corporation’s youth network, BBC Three. (The Times)
TALKING TOUGH: Terrorists face at least 14 years in prison for serious offences and up to 25 years of monitoring when they are released, in changes to sentencing after the London Bridge and Streatham attacks. (The Times)
DIGITAL DEGREES: All Cambridge University lectures will be online-only for the entire 2020-21 academic year, students and tutors have been told. (The Times)
ORGAN DONATION: Patients waiting for life-saving transplants have welcomed a “game- changer” law which means that from today people are automatically enrolled as organ donors. (The Times)
BREXIT TALKS: Britain’s chief negotiator, David Frost, has accused Brussels of treating the UK as an “unworthy” partner by offering a low-quality trade agreement that he says would force the country to “bend to EU norms”. (The Guardian)
TRAINING PLACES: The lockdown has hit the already troubled apprenticeship system in England hard, with almost two thirds of companies involved having to axe their programmes, according to a leading educational charity. (Financial Times)
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I asked what should happen to parliament, and 49 per cent said restore it in full and 47 per cent said turn it into a museum. Full result here
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Have your say
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I asked what advice you would give as an aide to Ed Miliband.
David Martin: "Get a proper job in the real commercial world, and find out what an operating profit means, and how a country earns money. That is assuming some firm is desperate enough to employ you. After five years think about coming back into politics. You may then be credible."
Patricia Judson: "Avoid bacon sarnies at all costs and ask brother David for advice."
Allen Graham: "Quit while you're still behind, would be my advice to Ed Miliband. He's about as inspiring as the news about coronavirus."
Chris Holmwood: "Leave no stone unturned..."
TODAY: What should parties do instead of holding a conference? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best tomorrow.
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The cartoon
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Today's cartoon from The Times by Peter Brookes
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Now read this
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What are the life-changing books that our schoolteachers recommended? From Adrian Mole to Lark Rise to Candleford, Times writers remember the titles that made a difference. Or, in my case, didn't:
Matt Chorley Maybe it was the school I went to, or maybe I wasn’t paying attention, but I can’t remember any teacher recommending a book. Or at least not one I then bothered to read. I have a vivid memory, though, of my English teacher Mr Roberts recommending we listen to Just a Minute, even getting us to play it during lessons. I have no idea what the educational benefit was, but it had a bigger impact on my love of comedy, wordplay, talking for the sake of it and Nicholas Parsons than anything in the library.
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Read the full story
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The agenda
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Today
- A new system comes into force for organ donation in England which assumes automatic consent to donating organs upon a person's death unless they register to opt out.
- Long-standing problems with how parliament works and how MPs perform their duties have yet to be addressed, according to the Institute for Government's annual Parliamentary Monitor report.
- 7am Office for National Statistics publishes inflation data for April.
- 9am Witnesses from Impetus, Institute for Employment Studies, Trade Union Congress, Shaw Trust, The Prince's Trust, Salvation Army and Greater Manchester Combined Authority give evidence to the work and pensions committee on the coronavirus outbreak.
- 9.30am Kelly Tolhurst, the aviation minister, and trade unions give evidence to the transport select committee on the implications of Covid-19 for transport.
- 12:30pm Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, holds her daily briefing.
- 1.30pm Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, gives a statement on coronavirus.
- 2pm Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, gives evidence to the Treasury select committee on the Bank's monetary policy reports.
- 2.30pm Paul Scully, the minister for London, appears before the London Assembly.
House of Commons
- 11.30am Scotland questions.
- Midday Prime Minister's Questions
- Trade Bill: Second Reading
- Motion relating to the membership of the Liaison Committee.
House of Lords
- 11am Questions on impact of Covid-19 on refugee camps; inheritance tax; discussions with Ireland about an all-island approach for lifting Covid-19 restrictions; and the resumption of routine dental care.
- Draft Weights and Measures Act 1985 (Definitions of “Metre” and “Kilogram”) (Amendment) Order 2020.
- Prisoners (Disclosure of Information About Victims) Bill - Committee stage.
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Today's trivia answer
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Neil Kinnock's first Labour conference as leader was overshadowed by footage of him falling in the sea on which beach?
Brighton. Worth a watch again here
Send your trivia to redbox@thetimes.co.uk
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@MattChorley
