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| Wednesday October 23 2019 |
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By Matt Chorley
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Good morning from Taunton
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A cracking This. Is. Not. Normal. show last night, albeit with a huge audience made up largely of my family, friends and every person I have ever met in Taunton.
Getting the news halfway through the show (which is supposed to clear up confusion about politics) that MPs had once again fudged Brexit was met with a cry of despair, leaving me wondering if we should just lock the doors and stay in the Brewhouse Theatre.
But I'm not sure how long we could survive on just Maltesers and small pots of ice-cream.
Instead we face a Christmas election, which as I wrote in my Saturday column, nobody wants. At least John Bercow will have retired to concentrate on being an Elf on the Shelf.
LISTEN: Catch me every weekday morning giving a sneak preview of what's coming up in Red Box at 7.30am with Julia Hartley-Brewer at breakfast on TalkRadio. Listen here
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The briefing
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- Boris Johnson faces PMQs at midday: but will we get nice Boris, being emollient to keep MPs on side, or angry humbug Boris, blowing his top in frustration?
- Brexit is stuck again: MPs voted to back the government's Brexit bill, but against the plan to pass it by the end of this week.
- The chair of the powerful Treasury committee will be elected today, with Harriett Baldwin, Mel Stride, Mark Garnier and Kevin Hollinrake in the running.
- Several cabinet ministers appear in front of select committees today: Julian Smith, Northern Ireland secretary, at 9.30am, Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, at 2pm and Priti Patel, the home secretary, at 2.15pm.
- Esther Webber's trivia question: When was the last time MPs backed a bill at second reading but voted against the programme motion? Answer at the bottom of today's email
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LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE TO THE RED BOX PODCAST
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Limboland
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"Do or die" seems a very long time ago. As things stand Brexit, at least Boris Johnson's version of it, is neither done nor dead.
John Bercow, the Commons Speaker, declared the withdrawal agreement bill to be in limbo, which technically speaking means having died in original sin without being assigned to the Hell of the Damned.
"Theologically speaking," responded Jacob Rees-Mogg. "It is reported that Pope Benedict XVI abolished limbo. I wonder whether the Bill is not in the heaven that is having been passed, or in the hell of having failed, but in purgatory, where it is suffering the pains of those in purgatory."
It is certainly suffering pains. Passed but not passing. First the good news, for the PM: MPs backed his deal in broad terms at the second reading of the bill (the general thumbs for legislation before the more detailed line-by-line scrutiny of the law taking us out of the EU).
This passed by 329 votes to 299, with 19 Labour MPs defying Jeremy Corbyn to back the deal.
But things went wrong for Johnson when it came to his plan to ram the whole thing through by the end of this week. The vote on the timetable for scrutinising the bill was defeated by 322 to 308, with only five Labour MPs supporting it. Former Tory MPs including Philip Hammond, Ken Clarke and Rory Stewart were also among those who voted against.
So not for the first time in this Brexit circus we ask ourselves: what now?
A pause. Basically while Downing Street tries to figure out what to do next. As Phillip Lamberts, a Belgian MEP, told the Today programme: "Seeing a parliament that is dithering with the issue is business as usual."
Before the defeat Johnson had threatened: "If parliament decides to delay until January, or possibly longer, in no circumstances can the government continue with this. The bill will have to be pulled and we will have to go forward to a general election."
And he gave us a taste of that campaign: "I will argue at that election, ‘Let’s get Brexit done’, and the leader of the opposition will make his case to spend 2020 having two referendums, one on Brexit and one on Scotland. The people will decide.”
However the Commons has twice voted down an election – two-thirds of MPs must back one for it to be automatically triggered.
So what now?
The PM was compelled by the Benn act to ask for an extension on Saturday after MPs withheld approval for his deal until all the necessary legislation had been passed.
Donald Tusk, the European Commission president, is talking about a three-month extension which would take us to the end of January. He hopes to have this agreed unanimously by writing.
However, if there is disagreement there will have to be an emergency summit, probably on Sunday or Monday. Downing Street is looking to France's President Macron to block this, after he said at the weekend that another delay “would be in no one’s interest”. Ireland's Leo Varadkar, according to the Irish Mirror, apparently wants Brexit done by October 31 so he can go to see Cher in concert.
You might think: why doesn't Johnson just take the extension and pass the legislation now that he has the numbers. But there are real risks: MPs could use that time to try to amend the deal. Ken Clarke, the former Tory chancellor, has proposed an amendment demanding a “comprehensive and permanent customs union” with the EU for the whole of the UK, which is backed by several Labour MPs in Leave areas.
Some would also like to see a second referendum attached to the bill, although despite Remainers being more fired up than ever, there is still no sign that this has the support of a majority of MPs. Labour's shadow cabinet remains bitterly split over it.
However in any extension the lack of urgency might see support, particularly among Labour MPs, peel away. And if there was an election in that time, it is possible that a new government might opt for a softer Brexit, or no Brexit at all.
For now the action moves back across the Channel. Instead of getting on with going through the legislation that they argued needs more time to be properly examined, MPs have put it on the shelf.
In the Commons today they will have PMQs and then go back to debating the Queen's Speech – remember that? It was only the beginning of last week, but feels about 10 years ago.
Johnson wants an election but Labour won't give him one without securing an extension first. But Johnson doesn't want an extension because it means breaking his pledge to leave on October 31 (which, it is worth pointing out, is only eight days away).
Sir David Lidington, the Tory MP and Theresa May's former deputy, told Today: "I see no way that the October 31 deadline can be met anyway now that the bill has been paused in the Commons."
There is a school of thought which says that Johnson will be damaged by going back on the "do or die" stuff, though he caved on the promise to ask for an extension at the weekend and is not, as far as I'm aware, now dead in a ditch.
In this limbo dance he has shown himself to be remarkably flexible. No matter how low the opposition bar has been set, he manages to survive in the game. Or maybe most people have made up their minds about him already, and don't care if he knocks the bar off anyway.
Voters must now be looking on and wondering if this spectacle will ever end. Nevermind the legislation being in limbo, that goes for the rest of us too.
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MPs reject timetable
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The Sketch
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The neighs have it after yet more horseplay
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Quentin Letts
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Another tricksy tank trap, another delay. Boris Johnson, part-successful, part-scuppered, took Hamlet’s attitude: “If it be not now, yet it will come.” The Commons supported his deal — big Tory cheers — but not his short timetable — equal cheers from the opposition. The horse is halfway into the box but she’s still kicking.
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Read the full sketch
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What the papers say
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The Times: "While Mr Johnson may fancy his chances against a deeply unpopular Labour leader, voter sentiment can swing wildly in an election, as Theresa May discovered in 2017. The time for an election is once Brexit has been delivered, a moment which now looks tantalising within reach."
The Daily Telegraph: "If there is to be an election, the country will see how hard [Mr Johnson] tried, only to be thwarted by a Parliament that should vote itself out of existence when the opportunity comes. Let the people decide this matter, once again, at the ballot box."
The Guardian: "Pursuing a whirlwind Brexit and caricaturing all opposition as a remain plot, the prime minister and his allies hoped that enough MPs would be sufficiently cowed and weary to rush through a deal significantly harder than that proposed by Mrs May. The plan failed. Now parliamentarians opposing Mr Johnson’s vision of a deregulated Britain, cut loose from its major trading partners, have a little more time. They must use it."
The Sun: "We didn’t think this rancid Remainer Parliament could get worse. But MPs topped it all with last night’s pantomime... Labour must agree an election now. Corbyn’s cowards cannot cripple the country any longer."
Daily Mirror: "This is too important to decide on the hoof and force through in three days.The future of our country, our economy and our communities are at stake.We deserve more than a desperate plan scribbled on the back of cigarette packet."
Daily Mail: "The public are baffled and angry that a Brexit compromise was within touching distance, then wilfully spurned by arrogant MPs. And what do they give in return? Nothing but more absurd posturing, obfuscation and delay."
Daily Express: "If the deal cannot go through Parliament, then MPs must put themselves up for election and allow the voters to decide whether they are consigned to the abyss they deserve."
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I asked if you had become too obsessed with Brexit, and six in 10 of you said yes. (It is not clear if the rest are not obsessed at all, or simply think it is not possible to be too obsessed.) Full result here
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Have your say
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Yesterday I asked what MPs should do to stay awake during late-night sittings (which are now not happening).
Michael O'Hagan said: "MPs should take it in turns to have power naps in Andrew Percy’s 'hidey spot'."
Enda Cullen said: "Impossible especially if Rees-Mogg is pontificating."
Roger Baker said: "Don’t bother. It will be the same old nightmare awake or asleep."
Will Hart said: "My suggestion to MPs would be to have a good supply of Pro Plus and coffee, or as I call it, the students’ all-nighter method..."
David Reed said: "For those members in the very north of England they can dream of the A1 being fully dual carriageway before Brexit is complete."
Jim Harbord said: "Give a bigger megaphone to that man who does a Monty Python rant when anyone is interviewed on TV outside parliament."
TODAY: What should Boris Johnson do now? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best tomorrow.
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The cartoon
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Today's cartoon from The Times is by Peter Brookes
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Need to know
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GIVING NOTHING AWAY: Remember Boris Johnson's big leadership campaign promises of tax cuts? Forget it. Sajid Javid has warned that there are unlikely to be significant tax cuts in his first budget next month amid mounting concern about the public finances. (The Times)
TURNING DOWN THE SPEAKER: The Speaker should no longer be chairman of the body responsible for running the House of Commons, a former senior clerk has said. (The Times)
FOR FRACK'S SAKE: Fracking sites could become a permanent blot on the landscape because of a weakness in decommissioning rules, according to the public spending watchdog. (The Times)
DESPERATE NEEDS: Parents of children with special educational needs (SEND) have attempted suicide amid a battle to secure school places and adequate support for their offspring, a report from a cross-party group of MPs has found. (The Independent)
TAKING THE MICK: The financial benefit of a degree has halved in 20 years as critics blame 'Mickey Mouse' courses for 'devaluing' university. (Daily Mail)
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Now read this
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Gordon Browne obituary
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When the Profumo affair broke in 1963 there was panic that Britain’s secrets had been betrayed to the Russians. John Profumo, the secretary of state for war, was having an affair with Christine Keeler, who was also sleeping with Yevgeny Ivanov, the naval attaché at the Soviet embassy. Had she been passing on to him intelligence she had learnt from a key cabinet minister? The embattled Harold Macmillan government knew she had not, largely because Gordon Browne, deputy head of MI5, had done a thorough job as a special investigator for Britain’s intelligence agency. As soon as the scandal broke, he had been seconded to Roger Hollis, the MI5 director-general, to look at another potentially devastating leak, only months after the defection of Kim Philby.
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Read the full story
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| TMS |
| From the diary |
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By Jack Blackburn
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No crowning glory
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One week after the state opening, the Queen’s speech debate has risked being sidelined (although it will be debated again today). Pete Wishart, the SNP’s chief terrier, snarled at Jacob Rees-Mogg about this on Monday, accusing the government of making the Queen “put on her best crown and read out the Conservative’s election manifesto”. He barked: “Was all that just a supreme waste of time?”. The Mogg saw this false accusation and swiftly dismissed it: “Her Majesty’s best crown is probably the Crown of King Edward the Confessor, which is used only at the coronation,” he said. “The Imperial State Crown is probably Her Majesty’s second best crown.”
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Read more from the TMS diary
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The agenda
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Today
- Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, hosts an International Clean Air Summit.
- A radical change is needed in the approach to UK drugs policy, according to a report by the health and social care committee.
- Progress on fracking has been slower than expected, according to a National Audit Office report.
- 8.50am Robert Jenrick, the housing secretary, gives a speech at the Policy Exchange think tank.
- 9.30am Julian Smith, the Northern Ireland secretary, gives evidence to the Northern Ireland affairs committee.
- 9.30am Representatives of the British Veterinary Association and animal charities give evidence to the environment, food and rural affairs committee on puppy smuggling.
- 10am-1pm Election to replace Nicky Morgan as chair of the Treasury committee. Candidates are Harriett Baldwin, Mark Garnier, Kevin Hollinrake and Mel Stride.
- 10am Brandon Lewis, the security minister, gives evidence to the exiting the EU committee.
- 10am Nadine Dorries, minister for suicide prevention, and Nick Gibb, schools minister, give evidence to the women and equalities committee on men's mental health.
- 10am The British International Freight Association, the Institute for Government, the CBI, HMRC, and the Department for International Trade give evidence on post-Brexit trade to the international trade committee.
- 10am Thomas Cook former CEOs give evidence to the business, energy and industrial strategy committee.
- 10.15am Kit Malthouse, policing minister, gives evidence on problem drug use in Scotland to the Scottish affairs committee.
- 2pm Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, gives evidence to the defence committee.
- 2.15pm Priti Patel, the home secretary, gives evidence to the home affairs committee.
- 2.30pm England and Wales Cricket Board executives give evidence to the digital, culture, media and sport committee.
- 7.30pm Rory Stewart, former Conservative minister, speaks at a How to Academy event.
House of Commons
- 11.30am Cabinet Office questions.
- Midday Prime Minister's Questions
- Continuation of the Queen's Speech debate.
- Adjournment debate on the PSNI's policy on data obtained from warrants in the case of the Loughinisland journalists.
House of Lords
- 3pm Questions on Islamic marriages which are not civilly registered, the EU Settlement Scheme, the Yazidi people of Northern Iraq, and British people who joined ISIS and are now being held in custody by the Kurds.
- Third reading of the Birmingham Commonwealth Games Bill.
- Regulations relating to freedom of movement of services after Brexit and a Labour motion to regret.
- Regulations on electricity supplier obligations.
- Regulations on waste and environmental protection in Northern Ireland, plant health, and European parliamentary elections in Gibraltar after Brexit.
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Today's trivia answer
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Esther Webber's trivia question: When was the last time MPs backed a bill at second reading but voted against the programme motion?
Answer: 2012, when they backed the House of Lords Reform Bill but withheld approval for the timetable. The bill was later withdrawn.
Send your trivia to redbox@thetimes.co.uk
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@MattChorley
