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| Tuesday December 31 2019 |
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By Matt Chorley
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Good morning,
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Having spent the Christmas break discussing it with family, friends and people in the pub, I can confirm that friends of Matt Chorley will confirm that I am seriously considering telling friends to confirm that I am at this stage weighing up whether to consider running to be Labour leader.
Well, everybody else is.
In the meantime we've got a special New Year's Eve podcast, with Francis Elliott, Steven Swinford and Lucy Fisher peering into their crystal balls to see what 2020 might hold.
I have also rounded up the best writers, columnists and reporters to ask them what we might expect.
And we count down the top 10 most read Red Box comment pieces from the whole of this year. It's an eclectic bunch.
A very Happy New Year to all of our readers. Red Box returns on Monday.
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The briefing
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- “2019 has been quite the year”, says Jeremy Corbyn in his New Year message. He doesn't actually mention the big thing that happened to him this year, instead claiming: "We are the resistance to Boris Johnson." Although the Tories have so far managed to resist quite well. Lib Dem interim co-leader Sir Ed Davey used his New Year message to... oh for goodness sake, go and have another Quality Street instead.
- Social media executives will face fines and the threat of criminal prosecution for failing to protect people who use their services under plans to regulate tech giants in Britain for the first time.
- Allies of Angela Rayner are warning the leading Labour MP not to endorse the leadership campaign of Rebecca Long Bailey — despite the pair being tipped to run on a joint ticket.
- The number of migrants could rise sharply under Boris Johnson’s plans for an Australian points-based system unless he imposes a cap on the number of skilled workers allowed to come to the UK, campaigners have warned.
- Trivia question: Of the full cabinet in office on January 1, 2010, how many are still MPs? Answer at the bottom of today's email
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2020 vision
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Politics has been so unpredictable in recent years that I’d have to be a fool to make any prediction about what 2020 might hold in store.
So I asked some of my finest colleagues to gaze into their crystal balls instead and offer some clues about what the next 12 months might look like.
Steven Swinford, deputy political editor
“A spectacular year of politics lies ahead. In February Boris Johnson will wield the axe to his Cabinet, sacking up to a third of his ministers. Officials will find themselves caught up in one of the biggest Whitehall restructurings in history. There will be a series of explosive rows with the European Union over a post-Brexit trade deal, while the cordial relations between Mr Johnson andDonald Trump will be strained by rows over chlorinated chicken and ‘geographic indicators’ such as Scottish whisky and Melton Mowbray pork pies. For journalists, it will be another vintage year.”
David Charter, US editor
“Democrats are likely to pin their hopes on someone from the ‘B’ team to take on Donald Trump in November. Joe Biden is defying predictions to lead the pack and may well have the resilience to go the whole way to the nomination which will be decided at the party convention in July. Hard at his heels will be two other Bs: Bernie Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont who ran Hillary Clinton close in 2016, and Pete Buttigieg, the young mayor of South Bend, Indiana. Then there is the curve ball B candidate, Michael Bloomberg, who is trying to do what no Democratic candidate has ever done and ignore the early primaries, using his billions in an ‘air war’ advertising campaign to try and storm the 14 Super Tuesday states.”
Rachel Sylvester, Times columnist
“Keen to demonstrate Boris Johnson has ‘Got Brexit Done’, Downing Street will try and stop people using the B-word and politics will still be dominated by rows about Brexit.”
Politics has been so unpredictable in recent years that I’d have to be a fool to make any prediction about what 2020 might hold in store."
Henry Zeffman, political correspondent
“Michael Gove will be appointed deputy prime minister, or to a sinecure post allowing journalists to describe him as the ‘de facto deputy prime minister’.”
Oliver Wright, policy editor
“Labour will be ten points ahead of the Tories in opinion polls by Christmas next year.”
Chris Smyth, Whitehall editor
“Dominic Cummings to be fired and reinvent himself, like his vanquished rival Nigel Farage, as a talk show host.”
Esther Webber, Red Box reporter
“Sir Lindsay Hoyle to renege on his promise to introduce cats.”
Oliver Kamm, Times columnist
“I predict that Labour’s support will further contract under a new leader unprepared to tell the party that its policy stances and ideological trajectory were electorally toxic and need to be reversed.”
Philip Collins, Times columnist
“My prediction for 2020 is that Mark Francois will explode.”
Alice Thomson, Times columnist
“Theresa May back in the Cabinet as leader of the house and minister for women and equalities.”
Giles Coren, Times columnist
“My prediction for next year is Owen Jones getting a peerage in Corbyn’s resignation honours (does he get a go at that?) and becoming a fat old lord getting smashed on madeira in the morning and chasing young researchers with tight bottoms up and down the corridors all afternoon.”
Kieran Andrews, Scottish political editor
“A political prediction? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha. Make them at your peril.”
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Read the full story
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Read all about it
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Every month for Red Box, Will Clothier Populus rounds up the stories that voters mentioned unprompted to pollsters.
To end the year he has cast an eye back over 2019 to see which stories cut through, and how the Tories used them to their electoral advantage.
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Read the full story
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Last week I asked you why you were reading Red Box on Christmas Day. 70 per cent said you love it, while 13 per cent said you were getting away from relatives. Happy to help. Full result here
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Have your say
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I asked for your predictions for 2020.
Deborah King: “My prediction is that whoever gets elected as leader of the Labour Party, John McDonnell becomes shadow environment minister, goes to COP26 and tells the world why we don’t need Heathrow airport expansion.”
Chris Holmwood: “Nigel Farage to campaign for electoral reform from the House of Lords.”
Wendy Booth: "Dan Jarvis will become leader of the Labour Party, win ‘Strictly’, swim the Channel and be guest conductor on the Last Night of the Proms."
Bill Giles: “The Lib Dems overtake Labour in the opinion polls when they decide that each of their MPs should lead the party for a month every year. Boris Johnson goes bald, starts smoking cigars and begins making speeches about fighting them on the beaches.”
Stuart Hogan: “Politics will be dominated by Brexit and Scottish independence. Current and former MPs will therefore be as bored as the electorate and concentrate on developing their media profile. Boris Johnson will appear on Would I lie to you?, Jacob Rees-Mogg on Celebrity Antiques Road Trip, John Bercow on Strictly Come Dancing, Jo Swinson on I’m a Celebrity, and Jeremy Corbyn on The Alternative Christmas Message.”
Patricia Judson: “Not having Brexit and the election rammed down our throats every time you turn on the TV???”
And from Times readers posting predictions online here
Londoner: "The government will spend all year trying to argue that the poor economic figures (bankruptcies up, unemployment up, GDP not growing, the City contracting, consumer confidence down) are nothing at all to do with Brexit, but attributable to world economic conditions and a British lack of optimism."
Lionel Pettrick: "Sad Remainers will carry on wailing about 'crashing out'."
Lady P: "Emily Thornberry will become leader of the opposition thus ensuring a Tory government to 2029. Boris will do a good job and this will create a spike in mental illness in London."
Yossarian: "We will all learn a great deal about fishing."
TODAY: What new year's resolution would you choose for which politician? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best next week.
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The cartoon
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Today's Times cartoon by Morten Morland
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Now read this
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New York has JFK, named after the assassinated 35th president of the United States. Paris has Charles de Gaulle airport, in honour of the president who led the Free French Forces during the Second World War; and Israel has Ben Gurion airport, named after the country’s first prime minister.
But the best that Britain can manage is Liverpool’s John Lennon airport, named after the murdered Beatle in 2002.
Now it has emerged that John Major considered renaming Heathrow as Winston Churchill airport in tribute to the wartime prime minister.
It is among a raft of stories revealed by the National Archives today.
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| TMS |
| From the diary |
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By Jack Blackburn
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When Tutu let it all hang out
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Even the safest guest can prove perilous on breakfast television. TVAM’s erstwhile queen of the sofa, Anne Diamond, tells Iain Dale’s All Talk podcast of her telephone interview with Archbishop Desmond Tutu on the day Nelson Mandela’s release was announced. In light of the breaking news, a producer hastily called the priest, and Tutu said he was delighted to stay on the line and gave his ebullient response. At the end of the interview Tutu asked if he could go and Diamond said he could. Not realising he was still on air, Tutu said “Good, because I was in the shower and I am standing here stark bollock naked.”
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Read more from the TMS diary
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Today's trivia answer
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Of the full cabinet in office on January 1, 2010, how many are still MPs?
Six: Harriet Harman, Hilary Benn, Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Liam Byrne and Ben Bradshaw.
Send your trivia to redbox@thetimes.co.uk
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@MattChorley
