Red Box - Thursday March 14 2019

What's going on? Not a clue

View in your browser

Thursday March 14 2019

By Matt Chorley

Good morning,

Are you struggling to work out what is going on? Join the club. In fact, you can join us for an evening of insightful political analysis/group therapy on March 26, a couple of days before we all say "this was the day we were supposed to be leaving".

Brexit, Tamed is one of the biggest events Times+ has done on Britain leaving the European Union, with a bumper line-up of Times and Sunday Times writers trying to make sense of it all.

The line-up includes Sarah Baxter, Philip Collins, Daniel Finkelstein, Quentin Letts, Lucy Fisher, Katie Perrior, Hugo Rifkind, Sathnam Sanghera, and Henry Zeffman with his flowchart. Join us on Tuesday, March 26. I promise it will be fun, or your money back.* Book tickets here

*No refunds for lack of fun.

LISTEN: Catch me every weekday morning giving a sneak preview of what's coming up in Red Box at 7.30am with Julia Hartley-Brewer at breakfast on TalkRadio. Listen here

Matt Chorley

Red Box Editor

@MattChorley

The briefing

Theresa May is still prime minister, which is something I suppose.
Asked if the PM was now impotent, Philip Hammond only responded on the Today programme: “These are very challenging times.”
MPs will tonight vote on the idea of extending Article 50. Bad news if you've already ordered your March 29 Brexit Day commemorative plate.
Keep an eye on... well, everyone. With collective responsibility apparently now dead, and No10 at war with the whips office, anyone could do anything. And probably will.
The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg has a new catchphrase. She'll be hearing from our lawyers. (Do we have lawyers?)
Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, has said that if the UK changed its mind about Brexit it would be welcomed back “like the Prodigal Son”.
Today's trivia: What was the last issue on which the government held a free vote? Answer at the bottom of today's email

Not funny any more

Some politicians manage to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. The unlucky ones snatch defeat from victory.

Theresa May has a unique skill of being able to reach deep into the jaws of defeat, over the tongue of confusion, down the oesophagus of farce, past the lungs of hubris, through the stomach of incompetence and on into the large intestine of humiliation and the colon of chaos, where she can catch hold of whatever faecal matter she can before dragging it all the way back through the body politic and holding it aloft like a trophy and declaring: “And this is why you should all vote for my deal.”

I am duty bound to try to explain to you what the hell happened in Westminster last night. It is literally my job. But I warn you now, when we get to the end of it, it will make no sense, and I take no responsibility for that. All cars are left at owners' risk. The value of your investments can fall as well as rise. This ride is not recommended for those with heart conditions, pregnancy, back/neck injuries or anyone with the vague idea that the people running the country have the faintest clue what they are doing.

So, the day began with the prime minister OD-ing on Strepsils and telling everyone who could hear that she was having a free vote on the idea of Britain leaving the EU without a deal — an idea she thought to be bad.

So the government, the thing she leads, tabled a motion saying that the Commons “declines to approve leaving” the EU without a deal, but it also added “that leaving without a deal remains the default in UK and EU law unless this House and the EU ratify an agreement”.

At 6.10pm there was a mini-cabinet meeting, where ministers were told what was going on. All clear, until Greg Clark asked about the whipping arrangements. A government source told Sam Coates of The Times: "Julian Smith [the Tory chief whip] didn't know what was going on and the PM didn't understand what was going on." Which doesn't sound remotely plausible, does it?

So, to the meat of the matter. There was an amendment to the motion, pushed by Tory Dame Caroline Spelman, which would rule out leaving without a deal under any circumstances, essentially lopping off from the government motion the fact that if we have no deal we leave without one.

Mid-afternoon Spelman announced that she would not push her own amendment to a vote, to which John Bercow replied that it was too late and other supporters could move it instead. Which Labour's Yvette Cooper duly did. And then all hell broke loose.

In the 7pm vote on the nothing-to-do-with-me Spelman amendment, MPs voted 312 to 308 in favour of ruling out leaving with no deal in any circumstances. Nine Tories rebelled to back the amendment. May lost by a majority of four.

There was a second amendment, on the so-called Malthouse compromise (so-called despite not really involving Kit Malthouse any more), which was a plan to go back to the EU and rip up the backstop, promising the EU billions in return for a two-year transition. In a free vote this was voted defeated by 374 to 164 but was backed by six Brexiteer (and wannabe Brexiteer) cabinet ministers — Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Gavin Williamson, Penny Mordaunt, Andrea Leadsom and Alun Cairns. The only thing we can safely learn from this list is Alun Cairns must also be preparing a leadership bid.

Then came the vote on the final motion, as amended. The motion that opposed leaving without a deal. Which May herself had said was a bad idea but would give her MPs a free vote on.

As the vote was called at 7.33pm, texts were fired off by the Tory whips telling MPs there was now three-line whip to oppose the motion. They were to vote against the idea of ruling out leaving with no deal. They were, in effect, now being told to vote to keep no-deal on the table. Uproar.

Some MPs and ministers seemed genuinely confused. Some almost went into the wrong lobby by accident. Others did it very deliberately. Sarah Newton, minister for disabled people, knew what she was doing when she walked through the aye lobby. She was taking no-deal off the table and putting her resignation letter on the table instead.

I'm not sure if there has ever been a competition for perfectly pleasant MPs but Newton would be one of the frontrunners. Not one of life's boatrockers, it will have been a huge wrench to defy the government. But defy she did.

Also in the mood for defiance were 11 ministers who abstained, including four cabinet ministers — Amber Rudd, David Gauke, David Mundell, Greg Clark — plus Claire Perry, who attends cabinet. Told to vote against taking no-deal off the table, they sat on their hands.

In fact, some of them just sat in the Commons. One senior minister told me: “There is fury in the whips’ office. It is a shambles. What’s the point of whipping anything ever again? It is not a free-for-all. The worse thing was [the Remain-supporting ministers] sitting in the chamber, bold as brass, and then swanning off in their chauffeur-driven cars, but if you are protected by No 10 it’s all fine.”

Who told the ministers that they could abstain is the big question of the day. To have No 10 and the whips office briefing against each other is a very bad place for any PM, but especially one so lacking in grip as this one.

Overall, MPs voted 321 to 278 in favour of taking no-deal off the table, a majority of 43. That's more than ten times bigger than before the three-line whip was imposed.

In normal times ministers who ignore a whip would be sacked. As I think someone once said: This. Is. Not. Normal.

There is no collective responsibility. Which means, in essence, that there is no government. Or, as a Tory MP tells PoliticsHome: “That’s it. We’re done. There is no government. Just people occupying offices, sipping lattes and pretending. And it’s all her fault.”

I suppose we should address the small question of what this might actually mean for Brexit? In theory, not a lot. Last night's votes are non-binding. They are just a suggestion to the government, which though hard to ignore does not actually rewrite the EU Withdrawal Act 2018, which states we are leaving at 11pm on March 29.

Today we move on to the matter of extending Article 50. May has tabled a motion stating that the government will ask EU leaders to delay Brexit Day until June 30 if MPs have endorsed her Brexit deal by next Wednesday. A so-called technical extension would give time for parliament to pass the necessary legislation to put it into effect. The European Council summit a week today will demand a “clear purpose” to any extension and, if it goes beyond June 30, that Britain take part in European elections. The EU is playing hardball, insisting that it will only agree to an extension if it is clear what the point of it is.

The government is giving Tory MPs a free vote on its motion today. Quelle surprise.

Apparently yesterday was the easy bit. A parliamentary insider lets us in on a secret: "I think today will be quite complicated. It will get messy."

Reading between the lines, this really means only one thing: May plans to bring back her deal again in Meaningful Vote 3, which, following the Police Academy model, should be called Back In Training, followed by Citizens on Patrol, Assignment Miami Beach, City Under Siege and finally Meaningful Vote 7: Mission to Moscow.

I know some of you will be thinking: does all this confusion mean we might get a second referendum? Bluntly, no. There is still no majority for it in the Commons, and last night Jeremy Corbyn made no mention of it as he ever-so-slightly shifted position to say that Labour would now seek a cross-party consensus on the way forward.

With the rising prospect of Britain never leaving the EU, or at least the prospect of talking endlessly about leaving, some thought that the hardline Brexiteers might start falling into line to back May's deal. It emerged yesterday that talks were back on with the DUP and ERG. But don't count on it.

Steve Baker, deputy Rees-Mogg on the ERG, rushed into the Commons to declare that he had “taken the opportunity to canvass the external Brexit campaign groups” and found that “unanimously” everyone thinks that May’s deal was “so rotten that we were absolutely right to vote it down and that come what may we should continue to do so”. He promised “to keep voting this down however many times it is brought back, whatever pressure we are put under, and come what may”.

Come What May: The Theresa May Story. The prime minister who lost her majority, her voice, control and now the plot.

Nick Timothy, the PM's former chief of staff, pops up on the front page of the Telegraph to point the finger of blame squarely at his old boss. “Ultimate responsibility must lie with her.” Although he does admit his own part in landing her in this mess: ”The manifesto I co-wrote blew up when its answer to the social care crisis proved unpopular.” Which is one way of putting it.

Here's a fun game. See if you can repeat a popular phrase without a smile spreading across your face. "Strong and stable. Strong and stable. Strong and stable. Strong and stable."

You can't do it. Well, I can't. Speaking to one Tory MP last night, as part of what now appears to be a Red Box Helpline for despairing members of the government, I kept being asked: "Why are you laughing?"

It's a good question. Because whatever you think of Remain or Leave or second referendums or whatever the Malthouse thing is, this really is not very f***ing funny any more.

Read Matt Chorley's analysis online and share HERE

Quote of the day

To the day I die, I shall curse myself for ever thinking a referendum was a good idea. I’m an idiot. I’m happy to admit to your listeners, I’m an idiot."

Charles Walker, Conservative MP, speaking to the BBC World Service's Newshour

Red Box: Comment

The history exam question of the future: where did May go wrong

John Kampfner – commentator

The Sketch

Gove’s charm fails to mollify mutineers

Quentin Letts

Theresa May’s voicebox having been hauled off by the knackers after PMQs, we had Michael Gove open yesterday’s no-deal Brexit debate. Alleluia. After all that froggy croaking from Mrs May and a stupendously prosaic spring statement from Philip Hammond, shafts of eloquence briefly shone down from above.

Read the full sketch

Votes of the day

Red Box: Comment

Sooner or later, MPs will have to stop saying no

Maddy Thimont-Jack – Institute for Government

I asked what you thought would happen. You responded: Not a clue. Full result here

Have your say

So, what will happen when we wake up on March 29?

George Fairhurst said: "The only thing I can say with certainty is that the sun will rise in the east and set in the west. Given May's deal is now being scrapped from the Commons floor, it’s probable that we will get an extension of Article 50 until July. Meaning that March 29th might be a day of campaigning in this election that Charles Walker has been talking up, possibly with a few more tweets by Nigel Farage screaming Brexit betrayal..."

Guy Clapperton predicted: "There will be cries of 'there will be unrest, we must do as they ask' but when did this country ever give in to violence? What happens after that will be, I hope, an acceptance that Brexit as a process is complex and very different from Brexit as a campaigning slogan. My own preference is that there will then be a fresh referendum based on what's realistically achievable rather than on uncosted, untested and unrealistic aspirations. I could accept losing a referendum on that basis."

Deborah King said: " Boris Johnson will be seen in a very expensive London restaurant quaffing champagne with a hedge fund owner and Jacob Rees-Mogg."

Peter Hartas said: "Mrs May will resign and use her newfound comedy voice to take up a new career as a Bernard Manning impersonator!"

TODAY: Do we have a government? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best tomorrow.

The best comment

Theresa May thinks like a head prefect, not a PM

David Aaronovitch – The Times

The wealthy get A-star for gaming the system

Jenni Russell – The Times

Time has run out for Biden to be president

Gerard Baker – The Times

My campaign to Make Hancock Great Again

George Osborne - The Spectator

When should you give up? What Theresa May and David Bowie have taught me

Adrian Chiles - The Guardian

The cartoon

Today's cartoon from The Times by Morten Morland

Need to know

BLOODY SUNDAY: The Public Prosecution Service of Northern Ireland will reveal today whether it is to prosecute any of the 17 veterans under investigation for the deaths of 13 civilians on Bloody Sunday 47 years ago. Writing for Red Box, the Tory MP Leo Docherty insisted that the government had a “duty of care to our veterans who kept the peace” and said: “A line must be drawn.” (The Times)

WRONG GONG: David Steel, the former Liberal Party leader, never told a committee checking Cyril Smith’s nomination for a knighthood that the MP had admitted to him that child abuse allegations against him were true. (The Times)

TACKLING TECH: The competition watchdog is to study Britain’s online advertising industry, which is dominated by Google and Facebook. (The Times)

ABUSE COSTS: Boris Johnson has said that police spending on child sexual abuse investigations was "spaffed up a wall". Yes, he used to be our foreign secretary. (Daily Mirror)

POOR NIGEL: Remember when Nigel Farage complained that he was “skint”? It turns out what he meant was ”rolling in it”. He added nearly £400,000 last year to the coffers of a company that has acted as a repository for the former Ukip leader’s earnings from media appearances and the lecture circuit. (The Guardian)

MIKE DROP: A Labour shadow minister called Mike Amesbury (no, me neither) has issued a grovelling apology after being exposed for sharing an antisemitic image on Facebook. (The Sun)

Red Box: Comment

Prosecuting soldiers for Bloody Sunday would be a shameful turn of events

Leo Docherty – Conservative MP

Stop. Hammond time

In the end Philip Hammond got what he claimed he always wanted: a low-key spring statement. Suspecting that attention might have been diverted elsewhere, he put in as much as effort as a teenager who knows that the essay is going to be marked by the supply teacher.

The key bits: more money for tackling knife crime; house prices are about to start falling; gas boilers will be banned in new homes from 2025; and, as the Resolution Foundation's Torsten Bell writes for Red Box, it is going to be a while yet before wages pass the pre-crash peak.

Red Box: Comment

Hammond’s plans rest on a Brexit that may be undeliverable

Torsten Bell – Resolution Foundation

TMS

From the diary

By Patrick Kidd

Not-so-unlikely

Geoffrey Cox, the attorney-general armed with a voice as rich as treacle, failed to reassure MPs on Tuesday that an eternal backstop in Northern Ireland, though legally possible, was “highly unlikely”. Labour’s Chris Bryant, 57, reminded him that an awful lot of things thought to be highly unlikely five years ago have since come to pass. Indeed, Bryant recalled a friendly conversation he once had in the members’ lobby with Cox when he had told the Tory, then just a humble QC scraping by on £800,000 a year, that he should be attorney-general. “Oh no,” Cox had told him, jowls all a-quiver. “That’s highly unlikely.” David Cameron, then still the PM, was not a fan of Cox, 58, after the barrister had grandly let it be known as a new MP in 2005 that he expected Cameron to beg for his vote in the Tory leadership contest in person.