Red Box - Friday September 21 2018

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Friday September 21 2018

By Matt Chorley

Good morning from Edinburgh,

Come on you lot, last orders at the bar, last orders please.

Today is the last Red Box email before it becomes exclusive to Times subscribers. If you have been putting it off all week, now is the time: subscribe for a special offer of only £3 for three months

There are also special discount packages for students and international readers.

For the thousands who have already signed up, I'll be back in your inbox on Monday with all of the latest shenanigans from Labour conference in Liverpool, including exclusive comment and analysis, and our live podcast recorded on Sunday night: Have we reached peak Corbyn? (Book tickets here)

And if your Red Box email does not arrive as expected on Monday, let us know at redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we will get it sorted.

Thank you to everyone who has helped to make all the early starts worthwhile so far, and for all of your lovely (and not so lovely) messages this week.

For now, Matt Chorley clings on, obviously.

Matt Chorley

Red Box Editor

@MattChorley

The briefing

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. So much for "de-dramatising" the Irish border issue. Theresa May is now battling to salvage her Brexit strategy and is facing a fresh Tory revolt after being humiliated by European leaders.
The Ukip conference starts in Birmingham. No, I'm not going.
Labour gears up for its party conference in Liverpool, kicking off tomorrow night with Jeremy Corbyn addressing a rally near the docks, though sadly not from the old This Morning weather map.
The Newsnight host Evan Davis is swapping television for radio after being appointed presenter of the PM programme.
Today's trivia: Which Conservative Prime Minister had as a young backbencher burned an effigy of a predecessor on the bonfire on November 5, and who was the PM on the pyre? Answer at the bottom of today's email

‘Shut up for a bit’

On a truly crappy day for the prime minister, it was probably good to have someone on side.

Hours after Theresa May returned from Salzburg to headlines telling of humiliation and disaster, Ruth Davidson was ready to fight the PM's corner.

“I would really like my colleagues in Westminster just to shut up for a bit,’ Davidson told me at a Times+ event in Edinburgh last night to promote her new book, Yes She Can. “Put their sharp elbows and personal ambition away and just let the prime minister do her job and go in to bat for the country and bring back a deal.

“We are sending the prime minister in, sitting across the table from 27 other nations... we’re asking her to bring something back for the country. I don’t care what you want your next job to be, your job now is to get behind her and let her deliver for the country.”

And yes, she does mean you, Boris, and Jacob, and David, and everyone else piling in at the moment. Davidson may also have wanted EU leaders to shut up too — little of what they said yesterday hadn't been said before, but it was their decision to repeat themselves that took everyone aback.

Despite the Salzburg summit being very much a two-steps-back affair, Davidson remains strangely optimistic that there will be a deal, although she admitted that it was “concerning we are still in a place where it is not clear to everybody what is going to happen and when and how it is going to happen”.

The arch-Remainer who took the fight to the Brexiteers during the campaign in 2016 refused to say that any deal that May came home with would be as good as staying in the EU but she insisted that the referendum had to be respected. After also fighting the bruising, bitterly divisive Scottish independence vote four years ago, she says that she would “happily never fight a binary constitutional referendum again in my lifetime, because it’s poisoned politics”.

The book is not, she stresses, a memoir: it is a collection of interviews with successful women from business, sport, entertainment, science and the military. But it also includes her own story, including her preparations to become a mother for the first time, in just a couple of weeks.

Of course, I asked her about her own ambitions, and of course she again said that she did not want to be prime minister. That question has taken on a more personal dimension since she revealed in her book that she suffered from depression while at university and suggested that concern for her mental health was one reason why she would never want to be PM.

In Scotland she's faced criticism for implying that she could not cope with being prime minister but being first minister was just fine. She tackled this head on: “I was saying I don’t want to build my home, my family, have my children here, then spend my working week 450 miles away. My family is more important to me than personal ambition. I don’t think that’s an odd thing. Lots of people make decisions that are right for them. I live three and a half miles from Bute House, I’m the MSP for Bute House. I want to be the MSP in Bute House.”

Davidson is a straight-talker when she wants to be: discussing the way that successful people are viewed as being able to "eat sunshine and s*** rainbows" but that behind the image there will be personal setbacks and struggles.

And then there are times when she carefully avoids answering a question, such as whether the shenanigans of the Tories in Westminster, particularly those on the right of the party pushing for a hard Brexit, risk reversing the gains she has made in seven years as leader in Scotland. Instead, she said that the debate over the outcome of the referendum would not end on Brexit day. “People in Scotland know better than anyone that there isn’t a full-stop to this.”

These days it can be hard to get someone to enthuse about Theresa May. But if Davidson was faking it, she did a good job. “Today she has had a setback. But she will get up tomorrow morning and she will keep going.

“I think the reserves that she has — she never talks about being type 1 diabetic, she never talks about now being over 60 or any of that sort of stuff — but the resilience she is showing under the most extreme pressure we haven't seen in politics since the financial crash of 2008 and before then for a couple of decades before that. It is genuinely remarkable and astonishing."

She revealed that after speaking at the weekend about not wanting to be prime minister, and her mental health battle, she had received a text from May wishing her well.

As May gets up this morning for another day of keeping going, she may not expect her critics to follow Davidson's advice to “shut up” but she might just send another text thanking her for saying it.

I want Holyrood job and not the prime minister’s, says Davidson

YESTERDAY’S QUESTION: I asked which side would budge first, and half of you expect Britain to concede before the EU. Full result here

Have your say

I asked if there should be a second EU referendum:

YES
Mike Woolnough: “If the referendum campaign was subject to The Sale of Goods Act, Trading Standards would be all over it!” Michael Doane: “Whether or not the EU eventually agree with the Chequers plan there should be a second referendum to strengthen and support the Governments position rather than a general election that will I fear lead to a change of government and a continuation of the turmoil we have lived through for the last two years.”

Erica Owden: “Despite the shortcomings of a referendum, which are many, we should be able to vote again before the leave date, hopefully once we know the final deal, but at least with a better idea of the real consequences of leaving. If Leave still wins, I as a Remainer, will find it easier to accept.” Adrian Webster: “If you voted to abolish the army, but later learned that as a result marauding Goths would soon murder you in your bed, you might very well wish to change your mind.” Tom Chalmers: “Yes. otherwise we’re going to have to go back to talking about the weather.”

NO
P Judson: “It would negate the point of any referendum. Carry on long enough to wear people down they think. I would not vote again - stupid idea by stupid people.” Geoff Walsh: “The very suggestion shows contempt for the electorate. I would dearly have loved Tony Blair not to have won his elections but the idea of having another vote each time just because of my sour grapes would have been anathema to democracy.” Chrstine Hanley: “If a racehorse wins a race by a short neck, that’s that. If you’ve backed the horse that came second you cannot ask for the race to be rerun. Simple.”

And Rob Garnett had this terrifying suggestion for a vote “with the question ‘should there be another referendum on Brexit?’. Repeat monthly until a clear answer is given”.

TODAY: Which party is having more impact: Ukip or the Lib Dems? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best on Monday.

The best comment

All that Labour wants to talk about is itself

Philip Collins – The Times

“Now that the witching hour is almost upon us the cynicism of Labour’s tactics is clear. The Labour leadership isn’t interested in Europe. All it has ever wanted is to take back control of the Labour Party.”

Read the full article

Absurd Salzburg show proves we’re right to go

Iain Martin – The Times

Haunted by Trump’s lump

Caitlin Moran – The Times

May shows her ace card: the naming rights for Brexit

Henry Mance - Financial Times

The EU has brutally killed Chequers, and the UK must now brace itself for a 'blind Brexit'

Fraser Nelson - The Daily Telegraph

The cartoon

Today's cartoon from The Times by Peter Brookes

Battle for Brexit

SUMMIT'S UP: It was almost as bad as the "nothing has changed" moment, when she tried to perform a U-turn while insisting that she wasn't. Yesterday Theresa May tried to insist that it was all going according to plan when anyone could see that it wasn't. The press conference was one to watch through your fingers.

Yes, EU negotiations are always full of ups and downs, and yes they go down to the wire with a breakthrough in the small hours, but this has been more downs than ups. In an ambush that blindsided British officials, both Donald Tusk, the European Council president, and France's President Macron stuck the boot in.

Apparently things went wrong at the dinner on Wednesday night when May started just reading out an article she'd written in a German newspaper that day. Then she dismissed a compromise plan for Ireland before seeing it. Bruno Waterfield has a compelling account of how a series of miscalculations by Britain led to the wheels coming off.

The Times reports that cabinet ministers including Sajid Javid, Andrea Leadsom, Penny Mordaunt, and Esther McVey think that the deal should be closer to Canada. Pro-Remain Tories also want to chuck Chequers.

Chris Grayling told Newsnight that there were no planned changes to Chequers "on the table at the moment". David Davis tells HuffPost that there is a "rock solid" group of about 40 Tory rebels and dismisses Treasury forecasts as "bollocks".

Quote of the day

“Brexit has shown us one thing — and I fully respect British sovereignty in saying this — it has demonstrated that those who said you can easily do without Europe, that it will all go very well, that it is easy and there will be lots of money, are liars.”

President Macron

Red Box: Comment

Hardliners move fast to exploit PM’s weakness

Oliver Wright – The Times

The Sketch

Sound of so long, farewell, auf wiedersehen, adieu . . .

Patrick Kidd

Theresa May had hoped to flee Salzburg last night, like the Von Trapps so many years earlier, to a land of peace and freedom. The hills were alive with the sound of Brexit. She had even prepared a little tune to impress the leaders of the 27 other EU countries.

Read the full sketch

Picture of the day

Have you cake and eat it? Cherry-picking? Is Donald Tusk just trolling Theresa May?

The headlines

DIGITAL WARRIORS: An offensive cyberforce to combat hostile states, terrorist groups and domestic gangs will be set up by the Ministry of Defence and GCHQ. (The Times)

FAILING GRAYLING: Chris Grayling should bear personal responsibility for Britain’s rail chaos, MPs said yesterday after an inquiry into the meltdown in summer timetables reported its findings. (The Times)

OFF TRACK: Furious commuters have been blocked from forming a new party to unseat the transport secretary after calling it “Chris Grayling is a moron”. (The Sun)

DEPUTY'S DEPUTY: Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters are backing a move to elect a second deputy Labour leader in a move that could undermine Tom Watson. (The Times)

DAY IN COURT: A courtroom battle between Alex Salmond and the Scottish government over the handling of sexual harassment allegations will go ahead after Nicola Sturgeon’s officials told the court that they would challenge his claims. (The Times)

WEB WATCHDOG: The UK government is preparing to establish a new internet regulator that would make tech firms liable for content published on their platforms. (BuzzFeed News)

BANNON'S BACKING: Donald Trump's former chief strategist Steve Bannon has backed Boris Johnson to be the next Tory party leader as he voiced doubts that Britain would ever leave the EU. (MailOnline)

Also in the news:

Westminster terrorist sent wife blowing kiss emoji before killing PC (The Times)
Ian Paisley survives recall vote over undeclared £50,000 holiday (The Times)
Change ‘outdated’ views of technical training (The Times)
Government pledges £2m in aid spending to help save Sumatran tiger (The Independent)
Prisons chief asked to resign amid failure to solve Britain’s chaotic jails (The Sun)
Labour considers breaking up big four accounting firms (Financial Times)

What makes a centrist?

Big new centrist party news: Renewal has merged with Advance Together. (No, me neither.)

Back in the real world, there is still much talk of how everyone's a centrist but there is no party for them, while the Lib Dems scratch their noggins trying to work out why they are not at 50 per cent in the polls, what with all that "open space in the centre of politics". But is any of it true?

Nick Barlow, a PhD student at Queen Mary University London, has been looking at actual data from the British Election Study and it is fascinating (if, like me, you're a sucker for political polling geekery).

It turns out that while lots of people say that they are centrist (putting themselves around 5 on a scale of 0-10, when asked about their actual views it paints a different picture. On a libertarian-authoritarian scale, self-defining centrists are actually marginally more authoritarian than the electorate as a whole. They also tend to be marginally more left-wing.

Which might seem contradictory, but people are. As The Economist's Duncan Robinson puts it, this is the "Fund the NHS Hang the Paedos" thesis of public opinion.

If you've got five minutes and want to know what people really think and what this means for political parties, it is well worth a read.

Red Box: Comment

Politicians are like houses: either fun or dull, the best rarely come on to the market

Jane Merrick – Red Box columnist

“Very occasionally, a politician comes along who is the equivalent of a 10/10 forever home, with both the charisma and the intellectual weight to save their party, an 80ft garden with room for a trampoline and a fire pit, bifold doors, the lot: Blair (double-fronted, high-spec kitchen); Cameron (expensive but in the right place at the right time); and Clegg (great kerb appeal, although lacking in square footage once you’re inside).”

Read the full article

In young people’s hands social media can be a force for good

Alex Krasodomski-Jones – Demos think tank

Tories against austerity

The number of voters who say that they want increased levels of tax and public spending has more than doubled since the Tories entered government in 2010.

Even a majority of Conservative voters want to see more cash spent on health, education and benefits, according to the National Centre for Social Research.

Read the full story

Red Box: Comment

Most Tory voters now oppose austerity — but will not join Corbyn on a march any time soon

Roger Harding – National Centre for Social Research

Around the world

USA: The woman accusing President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee of sexual harassment must submit a written statement by 10am today and confirm her appearance at a Senate hearing on Monday or lose her chance of testifying. (The Times)

AUSTRALIA: Australia is to reopen a vast Pacific military base used by the US in the Second World War as it seeks to counter Chinese expansionism in the region. Read the full story

GERMANY: Angela Merkel's German coalition government is poised to disintegrate amid open revolt over the promotion of a spymaster accused of spreading conspiracy theories and sympathising with the hard right. Read the full story

RUSSIA: Russian officials have ordered a re-run of an election in the country’s far east after protesters took to the streets over massive vote-rigging to ensure an unlikely victory for a candidate from President Putin’s ruling party. Read the full story

Red Box: Comment

Producers must innovate to stop us drowning in single-use plastics

Samantha Harding – Campaign to Protect Rural England

TMS

From the diary

By Patrick Kidd

Any Blair will do

Have I Got News For You, the BBC One news quiz, returns for a 56th series on October 5, just in time to sop up the blood from conference season. Promoting the new series, the team captains were asked for their dream host. “I’d like Blair, he would be terrific,” said Ian Hislop. “Yes, Lionel Blair is an excellent choice,” agreed Paul Merton. They decided to invite the former PM and the charades-playing tap-dancer to host the same programme, swapping them halfway through to see if anyone noticed. Hislop then noticed the obvious flaw. Tony Blair, he said, will probably be too busy hosting the Kazakhstani toilet industry federation’s gala evening. “I did wonder who got that gig,” Merton replied. “They said there was one guy ahead of me.”