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| Monday February 26 2018 |
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By Matt Chorley
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Good morning,
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Michelle Obama is to release her memoirs, chronicling her eight years in the White House, in November.
Expect Melania Trump to release her memoirs, chronicling her eight years in the White House, soon after, once she's changed all the references from Barack to Donald.
Oh and it's cold. Really cold. And my Dark Sky weather app tells me that on Thursday there could be up to 10cm of snow in Westminster. And as we all know, snow in London is the only snow that matters.
- Red Box is a must-read in No 10, and across Westminster. Know someone who is missing out? Get them signed up today thetimes.co.uk/redbox
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Must reads
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- Universities will be forced to act on high pay, grade inflation and support for disadvantaged students under regulations that will challenge their fiercely guarded independence for the first time.
- Millennials are on course to be the most overweight generation in history, with more than seven in ten carrying extra pounds before they hit middle age.
- Shoppers will not be able to buy their hot cross buns for anywhere near one or two a penny this Easter as crop shortages drive up the cost of dried fruit.
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Bad news for Barry
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The genius of Labour's constructive ambiguity on Brexit is that it managed to please all of the Labour people, but you can't do that all of the time, forever.
When Jeremy Corbyn gives his Big Speech in Coventry today (exactly 170 years to the day since Karl Marx published the Communist Manifesto, incidentally), some of the people will not be pleased. One of them is Barry Gardiner.
I have written before about how the shadow international trade secretary (aka the Constant Gardiner, Badass Baz and The Gardinator) has carved out a mini-cult of his own for his audacious media appearances, notably during the election campaign and since.
Well last summer he was a busy boy, popping up to give a grateful nation his thoughts on Brexit in general and the customs union in particular. He wrote a piece for The Guardian in which he said that as an "end point" for Brexit it is "deeply unattractive". He later gave an interview in which he said it would be a "disaster".
Fast forward seven months and this is now Labour policy, and Corbyn will announce plans to stay in a customs union, to avoid a hard border and customs checks in Northern Ireland . So what happened?
Sir Keir Starmer, Labour's shadow Brexit secretary, made clear on The Andrew Marr Show that he has won the argument, and Gardiner lost. "Barry Gardiner said that ... in midsummer last year." Oh, so it was ages ago. "Speaking very much for himself." Right, so it wasn't party policy then either. "A lot of water’s gone under the bridge since then." Barry's ideas sank. "We reached unanimous agreement on Monday as to our position on a customs union, and that means unanimous." Barry has been told he agrees with Keir.
On Marr, Sir Keir was at pains to say several times that the new policy meant staying in "a customs union", as if to make sure that Corbyn actually says it today.
The phrase was not in the extracts released overnight, which said Corbyn will argue that the EU is “not the root of all our problems” nor “the source of all enlightenment”. Brexit, he will say, “is what we make of it together”. Corbyn will explicitly call for a “new and strong relationship with the single market” as part of a "jobs-first Brexit". It means negotiating opt-outs from EU rules on things like state aid.
Somebody with a sense of humour in Labour HQ sent Gardiner out for a full media round explaining the party’s new policy. Confronted with his Guardian quotes on BBC Breakfast, Gardiner insisted people should read the other paragraphs in the piece. So Louise Minchin read out the one claiming that if Britain stayed in the customs union “the 52 per cent would almost certainly consider this a con”.
Ah, but this is a totally different customs union, a customs union not the customs union. Britain would not be like Turkey, we would get a much better deal, apparently. “We don’t want to be taking the rules of Europe, we want to be co-creating the rules,” Gardiner said. There is no evidence that Brussels would allow this.
Corbyn needs this speech to land properly. The latest YouGov poll for The Times finds that only half of people who say they would vote Labour think it is the best party to deal with Brexit. Only a quarter of Labour voters think the vote to leave was the right thing to do. On who would be the best PM, Theresa May leads Corbyn by 36 per cent to 29.
Pro-Leave Labour MPs such as Frank Field condemned the speech for treating voters as though they were “thick”. Pro-Remain Labour MPs like Chuka Umunna want him to go further and pledge to stay in the single market too. The new policy has been welcomed by unions, who have been pushing for this for months.
The Lib Dems can't quite decide how to react, declaring Labour's "jobs-first Brexit" soundbite simultaneously "dangerous, meaningless and totally undeliverable". The Daily Mail splashes on "Corbyn's Brexit betrayal" while The Sun calls him the "EU dirty rat", and has given him ears and whiskers to hammer it home.
According to the Labour spin, “Corbyn will present Labour’s consistent approach to Brexit since the EU referendum”. If you’ve got to say it’s “consistent” it’s possible it isn’t.
The Tories are working hard to dismiss the speech before Corbyn has even opened his mouth. It's almost like it might be popular with some voters. Since the referendum, Labour have "flip-flopped on Brexit 97 times", according to the Conservatives, who have of course been totally 100 per cent consistent since June 23, 2016.
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, writes in the Telegraph: "They may think they have stumbled across a simple solution to Brexit but there is a lesson they are yet to learn: if it looks like snake oil, and it smells like snake oil, don't expect it to make you feel better."
A source at Davis's DExEU department tells me: "It looks like cake and eat it. Only the cake is soggy and there is no icing."
The problem for the government is that a band of Tory Remain rebels thinks Labour's plan is more agreeable than the hard Brexit they fear the PM is trying to make them swallow.
Would Conservatives really join Labour in voting down the central plank of their own government's policy? We will have to wait – panicked whips have delayed the vote.
The problem with Labour's customs union plan is that it leaves Britain unable to negotiate its own international trade deals. Sir Keir said he had not seen convincing evidence suggesting that Britain would fare better on its own striking trade deals than it would negotiating deals with the EU.
And if you don't have international trade deals, you don't need an international trade secretary (sorry Liam) and you definitely don't need a shadow international trade secretary. Sorry Barry, your job might have been washed away with all that water under the bridge.
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| Quote of the day |
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"I was a massive Remainer. But if you vote to leave, you vote to leave the whole shebang."
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Robert Buckland, the solicitor-general, on BBC's Westminster Hour
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Chart of the day
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No excuse for Scottish independence
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There is another Big Speech today: David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, gives Brexit number four of six in the government's mini-series. Speaking in Wales he will say Brexit must not be used as an excuse to break up the United Kingdom. Liam Fox speaks on trade tomorrow, before Theresa May wraps it all up on Friday. Read the full story
Tom Tugendhat, the Tory MP and chairman of the foreign affairs committee, is no fan of Boris Johnson. He uses an interview with BuzzFeed to really stick the boot in: "One of the things I notice is that the Foreign Office seems to have somewhat lost its way – and certainly there is a failure of leadership from the top, I don’t question that."
Border farce
The Financial Times reports that the EU’s draft withdrawal agreement legal text, due to be published this week, makes no mention of preventing a hard border in Ireland. The omission will infuriate the DUP, which demanded it be inserted in December.
Tory away-day
After the success of the Chequers away day for the Brexit war cabinet, every Tory MP is going to get the same treatment. The Sun reports that No 10 is planning an away-day “bonding session” for every single MP in a desperate bid to reunite a party divided by Brexit.
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FRIDAY'S QUESTION: I asked where you thought Red Box stands on Brexit. Four in 10 thought "anti", one in 10 "pro", two in 10 "neither" and three in 10 said "bored". See the full result here
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Today's cartoon from The Times by Morten Morland
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Corbyn 1, Bradley 0
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The recent shake-up in Conservative HQ was supposed to improve the party's social media game, to get more of their content going viral. At least in that Ben Bradley has been successful.
The party vice-chairman was forced to post a grovelling apology for accusing Jeremy Corbyn of selling British secrets to communist spies. Unfortunately it was at 10.30pm on a Saturday night so risked being lost. Instead it has been spread widely, retweeted more than 45,000 times. And Bradley has made a donation of several thousand pounds to charity.
As a result you'd think that Tories would be careful with what they said about Corbyn and the communists. Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, told The Andrew Marr Show that the Labour left were “the Soviets’ useful idiots” during the Cold War, but distanced himself from Gavin Williamson, the defence secretary, who claimed Corbyn had "betrayed" the nation.
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The end of council tax?
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Much has been written in recent weeks on the parlous state of local government, and the risk of more authorities following Northamptonshire county council in going bust.
It is a different story in East Hampshire, where the Tory leader Ferris Cowper predicts that local services such as rubbish collection could be delivered free by 2022. Those of us living in neighbouring North East Hampshire hope the idea spreads...
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Read the full story
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Ones to watch today
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- New legislation is introduced to parliament to cap energy bills after the business select committee found that 12 million customers are overpaying by as much as £300 a year. Theresa May says the Domestic Gas and Electricity (Tariff Cap) Bill will "force energy companies to change their ways". Read the full story
- Amber Rudd, the home secretary, announces that victims of domestic violence will be spared having to come face to face with their abusers in court. Read the full story
- The parliamentary Labour Party meets at 6pm for the first time since Iain McNicol quit as general secretary.
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Leadsom's depression
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Andrea Leadsom has disclosed she suffered with postnatal depression after the birth of her eldest son. The Commons leader said she felt so “helpless” after her first-born child Freddie arrived that she was reduced to tears by the thought of simple tasks.
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Read the full story
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Student refunds
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University lecturers are on strike, meaning they are not being paid. Students are missing out on lectures they have paid for. The solution? According to Sam Gyimah, the higher education minister, students should receive compensation from the money saved on the salaries of staff on strike. Walkouts continue until Wednesday.
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Read the full story
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Charity extremists
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Islamic charities vulnerable to extremists receive £6 million a year from taxpayers in gift aid, according to a report by the Henry Jackson Society.
It accuses charities of supporting “the spread of harmful nonviolent extremist views that are not illegal; by providing platforms, credibility and support to a network of extremists operating in the UK”.
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Read the full story
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Don't bet on it
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A maximum stake of £2 on betting machines that have been described as “the crack cocaine of gambling” would all but eliminate losses of more than £100 per session, according to research seen by The Times.
Matt Hancock, the new-ish culture secretary, is due to announce the government's plans on reducing the maximum stake from £100 soon.
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Read the full story
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Around the world
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SOUTH KOREA: Ivanka Trump smiled as President Moon of South Korea greeted a blacklisted North Korean general at the closing ceremony of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, where diplomacy has attracted as much attention as the ice skaters and skiers. Read the full story
CHINA: Xi Jinping could rule China until his death after the governing Communist Party said it intended to scrap a clause in the constitution that limits presidents to two five-year terms. Read the full story
SYRIA: Syrian regime forces have defied a UN ceasefire resolution by launching an alleged chemical attack and bombing rebel positions in the besieged Damascus suburb of eastern Ghouta. Read the full story
RUSSIA: A former TV presenter and socialite who is running against Vladimir Putin for the presidency of Russia next month says she could act as an intermediary in his “bloodless” exit from power. Speaking to The Times, Kseniya Sobchak, 36, pitched herself as a compromise figure. Read the full story
GERMANY: Angela Merkel promoted the most prominent critic within her party to the cabinet yesterday as she bowed to internal pressure to include younger, more right-wing politicians. Read the full story
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Also in the news
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- RELIGIOUS BATTLE: Doctors under pressure to support ban on ritual circumcision of boys (The Times)
- UNWARRANTED WARRANTS: Metropolitan Police review will let fugitives go free (The Times)
- CONFLICT OF INTEREST: Save the Children boss forced to quit misconduct inquiry (The Times)
- LORDS' LUNCHES: Fed-up peers bellyache at bad meals (The Times)
- GOT MOMENTUM: Anti-Corbyn rightwing press attacks 'boost Momentum support' (The Guardian)
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What the papers say
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The Times
"Business enterprise is vital to a healthy democracy and the process needs to be seen to be legitimate. There is a risk that the debate descends to the point that high pay is thought automatically to be bad. The truth is that it always, from vice-chancellors to FTSE boards, needs to be justified." Read the full article
The Guardian
"There is no one grouping, whether nation, family, or global village, that should command all our loyalties; they must all negotiate and compromise with each other, just as we must negotiate and compromise within them. This is not just morally better than universal selfishness. It is more realistic, too." Read the full article
Financial Times
The 30-day ceasefire which the UN Security Council agreed to on Saturday, is welcome. But it is little more than a sticking plaster, if it sticks at all. It might provide brief respite for civilians caught in the crossfire and pause the accumulation of atrocities carried out by the Assad regime and its backers in Moscow and Tehran." Read the full article
The Daily Telegraph
"Britain must be free to negotiate new trade deals or to vary its tariffs as it sees fit – on goods, services, agriculture, whatever we wish, as long as we are compliant with World Trade Organisation rules." Read the full article
The Sun
"Leaving the EU but staying in a customs union isn’t leaving the EU at all. So the veteran Labour MP Frank Field is right to say his Party is “ratting” on the referendum result by pushing just that plan." Read the full article
Daily Mail
"It's often said by his supporters that Jeremy Corbyn is a true conviction politician - a man who stands by his principles no matter what. But the Labour leader's Damascene conversion to the idea of Britain staying in a customs union after Brexit - still shackled by EU trade rules - shows him to be just another cynical opportunist."
Daily Mirror
"The Brexit establishment may be prepared to crash out of Europe without a deal. So Corbyn's latest move means that clear blue water now exists between Labour and the Tories."
Daily Express
"While Islamic State falls apart in Syria as many as 1,000 women who went there to marry jihadis are likely to begin returning to Europe."
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Agenda
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Today
- David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, sets out what Brexit means for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in a speech in Wales.
- David Gauke, the justice secretary, presides over Queen’s Counsel appointments ceremony.
- 10.30am Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, delivers a major speech on his party’s position on Brexit in Coventry.
- 12.30pm Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the foreign affairs committee, speaks at the launch of a report on the "three foreign and security policy tests" after Brexit at an event hosted by the UK in a Changing Europe think tank.
- 6.00pm The parliamentary Labour Party holds a meeting in parliament following Corbyn’s Brexit speech.
- 6.30pm Mark Rowley, assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, speaks on extremism and terrorism at the Policy Exchange think tank.
House of Commons
- 2.30pm Home Office questions
- Estimates day: Ministry of Defence and Department for Exiting the European Union
- Adjournment debate on the future of diabetes care, treatment and prevention (Liz McInnes)
Westminster Hall
- 4.30pm Debate on an e-petition on ending the export of live farm animals after the UK leaves the European Union (Steve Double)
Select Committee
- 4.00pm Public accounts: Mark Carne, chief executive of Network Rail, Martin Griffiths, CEO of Stagecoach Group, and Bernadette Kelly, permanent secretary at the Department for Transport. On rail franchising in the UK.
- 4.00pm Communities and local government: Heather Wheeler, the housing minister, on the private rented sector and draft tenants' fees Bill.
- 4.45pm Transport: Malcolm Brown, the chief executive of Angel Trains Ltd, and rail sector executives on rail infrastructure investment.
House of Lords
- 2.30pm Oral questions on national child obesity strategy; electrical safety checks in the private rented sector; NHS waiting lists, and the northern forest.
- European Union (Withdrawal) Bill - committee stage - Lord Callanan
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@MattChorley
