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| Thursday February 21 2019 |
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By Matt Chorley
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Good morning,
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It's been a hell of a week. Wait, what, it's only Thursday morning? How is that possible?
What else could possibly happen this week?
There's only one way to find out...
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The briefing
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- David Cameron begged Tory defectors to stay in the party hours before the self-styled “three amigos” quit.
- President Putin has vowed to target the United States if American missiles are deployed to Europe after the collapse of a key arms treaty between Moscow and Washington.
- Jeremy Wright, the culture secretary, meets Facebook boss Mark Zuckerberg to challenge him over the damaging impact of social media.
- Sajid Javid, the home secretary, appears to have softened his stance on stripping Shamima Begum of her British citizenship, telling ITV's Peston he would never make someone stateless. Anthony Loyd, The Times' war correspondent who found Begum, says taking away her British citizenship is “opportunistic”.
- Like Shamima Begum, Tania Joya grew up in London’s Bengali community and ended up as a jihadi bride in Syria. She tells Times2 how she got out.
- Jamie Driscoll, Labour's candidate to be the new North of Tyne Mayor, is absolutely totally clear on his position on Brexit in this brilliant interview with ITV’s Joe Pike. The best 57 seconds you’ll spend today.
- Today's trivia: What was the name of the only Conservative to defect to the SDP? Answer at the bottom of today's email
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Soubry: Unplugged
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Now they've got enough for a football team. And it looks like they could give the Lib Dems a run for their money.
Three Tory MPs – Anna Soubry, Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston – quit the Tory party to join The Independent Group, accusing Theresa May of losing control to a hard-right group of Brexiteers.
After a press conference in Westminster, I caught up with Soubry as she was being sneaked out of a back door to avoid the waiting media.
During a very pleasant, if bizarre, stroll through sunny central London, she described her feelings at resigning, her anger at Remain MPs who have let her take a stand against Brexit, took several gratuitous (and funny) swipes at former colleagues, and used the phrase "I should tell you this but ... ” several times.
There were lots of wellwishers who waved and stopped for a chat. And there were the hints of trouble ahead for the party which doesn't even exist yet: defending George Osborne's austerity and arguing for shrinking the state is not quite what the ex-Labour MPs have signed up for.
To enjoy it in all its glory, listen to this special episode of the Red Box podcast (online, iTunes, Spotify)
Already having a reputation for straight-talking, the former minister is outspoken, outrageous and out of the Tory party. These are the highlights of Soubry: Unplugged.
How does it feel to quit?
“I was quite surprised at how emotional I was because it’s not dear friends in the party here that troubles me actually it's the people that you’ve been working for in Broxtowe for, gosh, how many years it it now? 12, nearly 13 years."
When she knew it was over
"Last week when I sat in PMQs I thought could this be my last PMQs over in the naughty corner. And I looked over and thought will I be over there next week? I just didn't know."
Waiting for Labour to jump
"It always makes sense for them to go first because of the power of the appaling situation they have found themselves in. People like Luciana had to tell that terrible story and that spotlight had to be on them. Today is about us, them and us."
Who tried to stop her?
"A member of the cabinet sent me a text to say don’t go. It’s not actually someone I know terribly well. One or two I do know terribly well it's as if they thought ‘nah this is right, this has got to happen’. They themselves are absolutely struggling with the huge changes that have taken place in the Tory party.
"David Cameron sent me a text. And he asked me to stay. It was a bit late. He’s a very busy man ... he is writing his book. I thought ‘hey DC sent me a text, pretty cool‘. And Sarah goes ‘Cameron's just sent me one' and Heidi said ‘he’s sent me one’. It was the same one to all three, as if we wouldn’t compare. It didn’t make a scrap of difference."
Cameron's text read: "Hate going on rumours but is it too late to persuade you to stay? Love and best wishes DC." Soubry adds: "I do love him. I do actually. I’m terribly nostalgic for that brilliant coalition government."
Has Theresa May been in touch?
"No she hasn’t. I think she’s in a bad place. That’s the truth of it, I really do. I don't mean this in a cruel way but I think she is absolutely delusional about the situation that she and this country is in. The idea that she is going to go off to Brussels and she is going to get ... I don't think she is a bad person. I just don't think she is awfully good at the job to be honest. I thought she would be a really good safe pair of hands on the tiller. I think we now know that she had these two, pretty ghastly, special advisers who basically were the hands on the tiller. Without them she is absolutely all at sea."
On support in the street
"You get this a lot you know. Ken Clarke says in all his time in politics he has never had complete strangers that come up, and they often need to touch you and they say 'I just want to say thank you for everything you are doing'. I was in a taxi and there were people on the pavement, and they looked in, and they were sticking their thumbs up. Quite extraordinary. Ken says he has never seen anything like it. We have never had such a dreadful divide of this magnitude."
What is The Independent Group?
"It’s a bunch of people with shared values and principles. You know about the people in the Labour Party and why they have left. And the simple truth of it is I have more in common with them than I have with the Conservative Party as it has shifted to the right."
It will become a party, at some point
"We are not going to sit in rooms and discuss the constitution because we have got this ruddy Brexit crisis to try and sort out. And the thing that is even more important than the people’s vote, and god knows that's incredibly important to Chuka and I, but even more important is stopping the no-deal Brexit."
Would she become its leader?
"I wouldn't have thought so. God we’ve had enough of 62-year-old women leading political parties. I don't know, good god. We’ve only just left the party."
Two-thirds of the new group are women
"Marvellous isn’t it? I think it's brilliant. Quite refreshing."
On Remain ministers keeping quiet
"Put the country first. End of. For Christ's sake. It has been so difficult, the number of really senior members of this government who after crucial votes in the face of all the stuff, all the threats and everything else, they come up to you and go, ‘well done’ and slap you on the back. I did have a meeting with a senior cabinet minister and he said ‘you have been so brave, you have been remarkable’. And I thought when the frigging hell are you going to be remarkable? Stop this madness."
On the party she left
"The Tory party is beggered. It's defunct. Theresa is tolerated as leader because sensible conservative members of parliament fear that they will have an even worse alternative foisted upon them by the membership because the membership has changed."
Who would be your worse fear? Boris Johnson? Jacob Rees-Mogg?
"Keep going. Michael Gove ... it's just awful. I think the quality is pitiful as well. This inability to show courage."
On Chris Grayling
"Now I can really be rude about people. Really to god. A man who has made a whole career… who has advanced on pitiful failure after failure. And it's like he’s going to screw it up, and he’ll get something else. It’s like the BBC - if you're useless they promote you across the way. They don't say ‘I’m awfully sorry you’re crap you're going’."
On austerity
The end of a Labour government they always leave unemployment higher and a load of economic mess and there was no money. We can argue and squabble about why that was but that was the reality, we were spending far more than we were earning, we had this terrible deficit, we had to do something about. If Labour had won that election they would have done exactly the same darn thing." She argues it might have been better to have "short, sharp" cuts instead of have it dragged out over years.
"I don't have a problem with reducing the state by the way. I don’t like big government, I never have done. It’s one of my worries about the old Blairite machine, it was far too statist, didn't trust individuals enough, it always troubled me."
On being a health minister
"I didn't come into politics to tell people how much salt to put on their chips. I really wasn't happy at health."
On Cameron's gang
"They were like Young Turks weren’t they? Young cocks actually. And I was a lot older than them. I wasn't in their gang. It was at the end they realised I was in their gang."
Being sacked by May in 2016
"She didn’t rate me, or Fiona Hill and whatever. I was quite upset actually. We were crossing off all the jobs, and there was nothing left. Nobody had the decency to say you're not going to be in the cabinet anymore, you're not going to have a job.
"The chief whip said ‘don’t resign she's going to offer you a lovely job’ and I said 'no she isn’t they've all gone'. She offered me the number two job at justice to Liz Truss. [She turns and bangs her head on a brick wall] I screamed silently... I think they did it on a back of a … it wouldn't be a fag packet because obviously Theresa wouldn’t smoke.” A jam label? “Yes on the back of a jam label, with mould scraped off.”
On the Lib Dems
"Obviously we want more people to join us. It would be lovely to get some Libs. I really enjoyed working with Norman Lamb, Jo Swinson, ah she's a great lady. Really like Jo. Smashing woman.
She said 'oh well done’, and I said 'I’‘d love you to join us. I’d love to have a chat.’"
Why not take over the Lib Dems?
"One of the things you don't want to do is get subsumed by another political party. It was one of the things that did blight the SDP actually, the negotiations and machinations. This is something entirely new. Just come and join us gang. And it would be good for them."
What about an election?
“God no, the last thing we want is a general election. It wouldn't solve anything anyway.”
Will she run for parliament again when it comes?
“Good God I do not know. I will be 65. It's very tying. You love it, and it's a great honour, I love my constituents but it is not really your own life. I had very little time off when I had my daughters, I just found I had to run away from them. That's a joke ...”
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Listen and subscribe to the Red Box podcast
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Trouble ahead?
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It's not just austerity where there might be differences of opinion in the new Independent Group. Esther Webber has cast an eye over the voting record of the 11 MPs and found that on the big issues, there is nothing they all agree on. Who will be the first to quit and form a rival group?
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What happens now?
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Both main parties are on resignation watch. All the chatter in parliament's coffee shops and bars (yes I had a drink last night) suggests more MPs will follow in the coming days.
If there is a plan, the Independent Group are doing a great job of pretending there isn't. Francis Elliott has a great read on the meetings behind the scenes, the donations they've received, and how they only plan to meet on Monday to decide whether to have a leader, nevermind who it should be.
Gary Lineker is on board. So to, it seems, is Professor Brian Cox here.
In the Tory party cabinet ministers are pressuring Theresa May to limit the damage from three defections and prevent any more MPs deserting the Conservatives. Philip Hammond, the chancellor, told Today he hoped the splitters would one day rejoin.
Brussels is watching the whole farrago with growing despair.
Over in Labour things are getting worse: Barry Gardiner, the shadow international trade secretary, used a speech at the despatch in the Commons to announce he had "lodged a formal complaint" about Derek Hatton being allowed back into the party. Hatton was suspended yesterday over a tweet which sparked allegations of antisemitism.
HuffPost reports Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle telling an event in Westminster “those scabs that left will suddenly regret the day that they ever left the Labour Party”.
The i newspaper says Corbyn-backing Momentum is to hold mass canvassing events in the constituencies of splinter group MPs.
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Poll of the day
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One in seven people say they would vote for the new Independent Group in a general election, according to a shock poll.
The YouGov survey suggests 14 per cent of voters would support the breakaway group if it stood candidates. It suggests Labour would suffer the heaviest losses.
In YouGov’s regular voting intention poll, the Conservatives have an eight-point lead on 41 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent and the Lib Dem’s on 10 per cent. However when asked about the Independent Group standing candidates, Labour drops seven points to only 26 per cent. The Tories are down three points to 38 per cent, and the Lib Dems drop to seven per cent.
One in five people who voted for Labour in 2017 say they would switch to the Independent Group. Interestingly the Independent Group appears to have widespread appeal, attracting support of 18 per cent of Remain voters and 11 per cent of Leavers. Levels of support are consistent across age groups and parts of the country.
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The Sketch
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The only resignation was the look on Jezza’s face
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Patrick Kidd
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And so the seven became eleven. The Independent Group of politicians who feel abandoned by their parties (also known as TIG of the Dumped) had gained as many new MPs in 13 hours as Tim Farron did with the Lib Dems in two years. At this rate they will be in government by Easter.
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Read the full sketch
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I asked how many MPs would join the Independent Group. A striking number of you settled on 19. Full results here
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Have your say
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Yesterday I asked whether you vote for the party or the person. Opinion was split, with David Walton saying: "I usually vote for the person, not the party or PM. This was especially so in 2017 when I held my nose (along with others I understand) and voted for Michael Fabricant based on his record representing the best interests of his constituents. I certainly would not have done so had I realised how far the Conservative Party had been polluted by extreme right-wing nationalists. I certainly will not vote for a Conservative next time if the ERG has not been expelled."
But Chez thought: "The party always takes the priority vote hence the need for by-elections. The breakaway group should demonstrate the courage of their convictions," and John Winter said: "In our system a vote should be for a particular party unless the leader is intolerable - as some might say currently applies to both major parties."
Teresa Mozley concluded: "Person, party, leader, in that order, although since the party elects its leader, those two tend to merge into one. I have a friend, a committed local activist and volunteer for many excellent causes, who stood for the Monster Raving Loonies last time (and at several previous elections). I was sorely tempted, but did eventually vote for the sitting MP, as she works hard over the issues that matter locally. It’s irrelevant to me - at the moment - which party she belongs to."
TODAY: Who should lead the new party? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best tomorrow.
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The cartoon
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Today's cartoon from The Times by Peter Brookes
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Need to know
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NOT COOKING WITH GAS: Gas boilers and cookers should be banned in new homes within six years to meet Britain’s legally binding emissions targets, the government’s climate change advisory body recommends today. (The Times)
DRONE RANGER: The drone attack that brought Gatwick to a standstill before Christmas is believed to have been an “inside job”, according to Whitehall sources. (The Times)
SECURITY COSTS: The security orders used to keep the public safe from former jihadists are so expensive that experts fear most of those returning from Syria are being allowed to roam free. (The Times)
COURT OUT: David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, is poised to spend the final few days before Brexit in court after being cited as a witness in a defamation case between the former Scottish Labour leader and a pro-independence blogger. (The Times)
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Battle for Brexit
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Get ready for the Deal in the Desert. Definitely. Maybe.
Theresa May is to meet EU leaders at a summit in Sharm el-Sheikh on Sunday but her allies insist she won’t bring back a new deal. They might have to make do with a pyramid fridge magnet and a toy camel.
Philip Hammond, the chancellor, told Today: "It's very uncomfortable that we are as close to the wire as we are."
An EU source tells BuzzFeed News that there was no chance of a “deal in the desert”. “It’s rather a ‘mirage’ or [a] ‘hallucination,’” said the source.
May met Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, yesterday. A statement afterwards said they had "constructive" talks. Quelle surprise.
Politico says the more significant sentence in the statement was: “The prime minister acknowledged the EU’s position and notably the letter sent by President [Donald] Tusk and President Juncker on 14 January.” That letter said the Withdrawal Agreement was not renegotiable.
Spain has derailed emergency European Union plans to enable Britons to travel to the EU without a visa in the event of a no-deal Brexit next month.
And one for the “every story is about Brexit” files: Academics say the government should use Brexit to limit the supply of sugar to reduce consumption.
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The agenda
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Today
- Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, and Geoffrey Cox, the attorney-general are expected to meet again with Michel Barnier, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator. Labour's Jeremy Corbyn, Keir Starmer, Shami Chakrabarti and Rebecca Long-Bailey are also in Brussels.
- Greg Clark, the business secretary, and Jeremy Wright, culture secretary, announce £110m of investment to drive up skills in the AI sector.
- David Mundell, the Scotland secretary, makes a speech in Edinburgh marking 20 years of Scottish devolution.
- Reforms are needed on high streets to reflect changing consumer behaviour, a report by the housing, communities and local government committee finds.
- Steps should be taken to strengthen bonds between UK and overseas territories, according to a report by the foreign affairs committee.
- Older and disabled adults are £2bn worse off since the care cost cap was scrapped, according to new analysis by Labour of Department of Health and Social Care data.
- 10am Anna Soubry, who resigned from the Conservatives yesterday to join the Independent Group of MPs, hosts an LBC phone-in.
House of Commons
- 9.30am Environment questions, followed by commissioners' questions.
- Business questions to the leader of the House.
- General debate on potential future free trade agreements.
- Adjournment debate on the Northern Ireland backstop.
House of Lords
- 11am Questions on subordinate legislation, the GP partnership review, free school meals, and the prosecution of returning jihadists.
- Committee stage of the Healthcare (International Arrangements) Bill (day two).
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Today's trivia answer
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Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler, who crossed the floor during a budget debate in 1981, saying: “Red v Blue and Left v Right are like an external wrestling match which is fixed through the ‘usual channels’, with no real winners except the promoters in the respective Whips’ offices. The country, industry and the public at large want and deserve a new deal.”
Thanks to Henry Zeffman's terrific analysis piece for this piece of trivia.
Send your trivia to redbox@thetimes.co.uk
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@MattChorley
