PLUS: Gove jaunt under fire
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The Times and Sunday Times
Friday April 16 2021
Red Box
Patrick Maguire
By Patrick Maguire
Good morning,
Have a lovely weekend, wherever you intend to spend it, but please do continue to exercise caution if you're meeting friends. Mask up, wash your hands and if you're offered a loan to settle your bill by a sunburnt gentleman calling himself Dave, please contact Eric Pickles.

Trivia question: Which MP, until 2015 the youngest woman ever to be returned to the Commons, was elected 52 years ago this weekend? Answer at the bottom of today's email
Patrick Maguire
Red Box Editor
Twitter icon @patrickkmaguire
 
The briefing
  • Britain and America have accused Russia of carrying out the biggest cyberattack on the West, with foreign secretary Dominic Raab condemning Moscow for a "malign" assault on democracies.
  • Exclusive in this morning's Times: as Whitehall's influence scandal rumbles on, growing anger at the access lobbyists have to government has prompted ministers to consider updating the ministerial code and producing tough new rules for contractors.
  • Meanwhile in Scotland: Nicola Sturgeon promised an independence referendum by 2023 and a multi-billion pound spending spree as she launched the SNP's Holyrood manifesto.
  • In the House: MPs return on Monday. In the Lords, debates on bills on drug testing in prisons, cosmetic fillers, animal welfare sentencing and school uniforms.
Five things you need to know this morning
1. Neverending Tory
Yes, it is only one poll. And, yes, it was taken in the week lockdown ended in England. But nonetheless it is the kind of result that will make Westminster sit bolt upright: the Conservatives have extended their lead over Labour to 14 points in YouGov's latest poll of voting intention for The Times, their biggest since last spring.

Having doubled their lead in a week, the Conservatives are up two on 43 points, with Labour down five on 29. The Liberal Democrats and Greens, meanwhile, are both up two on eight points, with Reform UK holding steady on three.

That is not only YouGov's clearest Tory lead of the year, the 50th in a row recorded by all pollsters, but it pegs Labour as less popular than they were under Jeremy Corbyn.

Some in Keir Starmer's team will inevitably say: "So what?" The Labour leader, after all, has been the one talking up the prospect of a vaccine bounce for the government.

And, of course, it is so far only one poll, not to mention one whose fieldwork was mostly taken before lobbying hit the headlines (not that most normal voters have noticed). Nonetheless the trend is as clear as it is unflattering to Labour, and it is neither where he hoped nor expected to be with less than a month until the local elections.

Particularly worrying, too, is the fact that the slippage in support is not confined to its right flank, and both the Greens and Liberal Democrats are making ground at Labour's expense. If borne out over the weeks until polling day, Labour MPs might start conducting their conversations about Starmer's leadership at a higher volume.
    2. Who are you?
    Restless Labour MPs are bound to seize on the results of another YouGov poll released yesterday, this one of party members a year into Starmer's leadership. The verdict on his shadow cabinet: something of a shrug.

    While 74 per cent are still enamoured with Starmer, three in ten members have still yet to make up their minds about Anneliese Dodds, the shadow chancellor, and two-thirds do not have an opinion about Nick Thomas-Symonds, the shadow home secretary.

    Some 84 per cent of members, meanwhile, believe Boris Johnson will win the next election.

    As much as Labour sources sought to play these numbers down yesterday, Red Box is going to stick its neck out and suggest these aren't the kind of numbers that'll put to bed fevered speculation and briefing about a reshuffle – and particularly Dodds's sacking.

    And, if anything, they will only encourage the chatty "cowards" Starmer blew his top at during a shadow cabinet earlier this week to keep insulting his aides and allies within earshot of journalists.
     
    3. Israeli bad idea
    After a febrile week on Whitehall, it's difficult to blame any minister for wanting to escape it all. Nonetheless, an ... er ... interestingly timed getaway awaits Michael Gove.

    Red Box understands that the Cabinet Office minister's rumoured fact-finding mission to Israel has been tentatively gridded for three days early next week. Whitehall sources grumble to Red Box that Gove's time might be more productively spent getting to grips on that lobbying scandal you might have read about.

    So if you want a measure of whether Downing Street is putting its money where its mouth is on sleaze, just check whether Gove is in the country.
    Read the full story >
     
    4. Health warning
    Not the best day for Nicola Sturgeon yesterday.

    Speaking from her conservatory – by now one of the most famous locations in Scottish political history – the SNP leader announced a manifesto full of giveaways so generous as to make Jeremy Corbyn look parsimonious: income tax freezes, free laptops and bikes for children, an end to dentists’ fees, and a “transformational” 20 per cent rise in the frontline NHS budget.

    What’s not to like? The fact that it’s less generous than what Boris Johnson is promising in England, for one. Analysis by the IFS warns that her £2.5 billion spree amounts to less in real terms (2.1 per cent a year above inflation) than the 3.4 per cent a year NHS England is in line to receive.

    It also questions whether the SNP’s promise not to raise taxes can really survive that level of largesse. Still, here’s something to distract you from those niggling questions: an independence referendum by 2023! Probably.
    Read the full story >
     
    5. Bar none
    Much excitement among thirsty MPs at reports that they might soon be able to order a beer on the parliamentary estate, but Red Box suspects they’re about to be disappointed.

    Last night boozehounds briefed the Guardian about plans to set up a makeshift outdoor bar for MPs and hacks, not in the best beer garden in London – the riverside Commons terrace – but in a glorified car park between Portcullis House and Derby Gate.

    Keep your masks on for now: it isn’t yet a fait accompli and senior Commons sources were keen to dampen speculation last night.

    MPs and officials on the House of Commons commission will vote on the proposals on Monday and Speaker Hoyle, never one for propping up the bar, will need some convincing before agreeing to start the party before pubs can fully reopen in the country.

    That probably explains why officials stressed to Red Box that parliament’s pop-up pub will live and die on its location.So why stick it in an unloved nook of the estate best known for writing off MPs’ cars with falling masonry?

    One well-placed boozer confesses: “Presumably it’ll be harder for long lenses to get a decent shot of us drinking.” Chin chin.
     
    Red Box: Comment
    Mary Robinson
    Suspending vaccine patents can help end the pandemic
    Mary Robinson – Former Irish president

    "That President Biden is now considering supporting a patent waiver on vaccines to help confront this crisis gives us great hope. But World Trade Organisation rules mean that countries like the UK, and members of the EU, must change their position too if this is to become a reality. I ask President von der Leyen, the German chancellor Angela Merkel, President Macron, Boris Johnson and all of Europe’s leaders to put the collective right to safety for all ahead of everything else — and come together to end this pandemic."

    Read the full article >
    John Kampfner
    Cameron scandal shows folly of professional politics
    John Kampfner – commentator
    Mhari Aurora
    Social media firms are failing their young users
    Mhari Aurora – Red Box Reporter
    Iain Anderson
    Time to shine sunlight on all lobbying
    Iain Anderson – executive chairman of Cicero Group
    Mike Clancy
    Right to disconnect is vital for future health of home workers
    Mike Clancy – General Secretary of Prospect
    The cartoon
    Today's cartoon in The Times is by Peter Brookes
    Worth your time
    • Paul Goodman's guest appearances on the Times comment pages always result in columns to savour: today's, on how the lobbying scandal might give Dominic Cummings' reform of Whitehall new life, is no exception.
    • It's been a long time since Westminster set its collective alarm for an Eric Pickles committee appearance, as it did for his testimony on sleaze yesterday. Quentin Letts is very funny indeed on this week's unlikely Commons blockbuster.
    • Forget the clichés about fading coalfield towns, boarded-up high streets and Brexit voters: read Steve Akehurst's blog on the neglected electoral battleground Keir Starmer should be paying attention to instead, and bookmark it to return to in May 2024.
    • Red Box missed this good read on the prime minister's green agenda from Katy Balls in The Spectator yesterday. Worth it for the revelation that Coldplay's Chris Martin is playing heavily on No 10's minds alone.
    78 per cent of you said civil servants should be banned from taking up outside jobs in yesterday's poll; 20 per cent plumped for "sometimes", a nuance Red Box suspects won't survive the next couple of weeks, and two per cent of you said they should be allowed to moonlight. Good to know Lex Greensill is reading.
    Today's trivia answer
    Trivia question: Which MP, until 2015 the youngest woman ever to be returned to the Commons, was elected 52 years ago this weekend?

    Answer: Bernadette Devlin, the Irish civil rights leader and Unity MP for Mid-Ulster.

    Send your trivia to redbox@thetimes.co.uk
     
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