Red Box - Thursday April 4 2019

PLUS: 7% say government handling Brexit well

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Thursday April 4 2019

By Matt Chorley

Good morning,

There have been a lot of warnings about about the risks of a no-deal Brexit.

But this might the one to finally turn the public mood: Britons would be banned from taking bacon, pork pies, Scotch eggs, Cornish pasties or cheddar cheese on their travels to Europe.

Hang on, what? Who takes a pork pie on holiday? No wonder this country is f*****.

Matt Chorley

Red Box Editor

@MattChorley

The briefing

Talks between the government and Labour continue to see if they, or their MPs, can agree on anything. Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn won’t actually meet today. This might increase the chances of a breakthrough.
MPs are on a one-line whip today and the Commons isn’t sitting tomorrow, so nothing will happen on Brexit until Monday at the earliest. No rush.
The House of Lords the Cooper-Letwin bill, ruling out no-deal, which passed the Commons last night with a majority of just one.
A reminder: Britain is due to leave the European Union without a deal next Friday. Unless Britain can agree an extension to Article 50 at next Wednesday’s EU summit.
The by-election in Newport West, triggered by the death of Paul Flynn, takes place today. Labour is defending a majority of 5,658.
Today's trivia: When the war cabinet was formed in 1940 it included Clement Attlee, Neville Chamberlain and Winston Churchill. Who were the two other initial members? Answer at the bottom of today's email

Breaking: Everything

Of course Britain has been tested before: the financial crash, Iraq, Black Wednesday, three-day weeks, Suez.

Each time politics has responded, adapted, moved on. This time the crisis is politics. Politicians, and parliament, cannot respond because they are the problem. Brexit could break everything.

There has been no single majority government for almost decade. Party loyalty has been eroded inside and outside parliament. And a combination of the expenses scandal, social media abuse, media scrutiny and unexpected electoral results has left us with some of the least impressive politicians at a time when we could do with the best.

And so it comes to this: Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn sitting in a room trying to negotiate a Brexit that actually the pair of them pretty much agree on, while outside the door their respective parties are falling to pieces. A Remainer too keen to win over her Leavers, a Leaver held hostage by his Remain party.

The talks were, we're told, “constructive” which in political jargon means that nothing happened — no chairs thrown, no tears shed, no decisions made.

And now a choice: do they break the deadlock but in the process break their parties and politics as we know it, or kick the can down the road, hoping that something else turns up?

May spent two years convinced that, because her deal had been so hard fought, in the end reasonable people would be reasonable and they would come round to it. But her colleagues are in no longer reasonable people. Some of them have gone totally mad.

She ran down the clock and has now run out of time. So, exasperated with her own side, she turns to the Labour leader, apparently in the sincere hope of finding a way through.

But this merely exposes the long-hidden divisions in the Labour party, and Corbyn is no more capable of delivering a united front in favour of one Brexit proposition than she is.

May wants to get her withdrawal agreement through, with the vague non-specific political declaration, and then she will stand down. With Tory Brexiteers giddy on sovereignty and TV airtime, they are refusing to fall in line.

Two more ministers (Chris Heaton Harris and Nigel Adams) resigned yesterday, not even worth mentioning until the eleventh paragraph, as May overtook the tally of resignations Tony Blair racked up in ten years in less than three. The PM was shredded by half a dozen of her own MPs at PMQs, wondering why she was now asking a Marxist to help run the country.

There is talk of submitting letters demanding a no confidence vote, but this is spoken only by idiots who have forgotten that May cannot be ousted by that route until December, a year after she won the last one. There is also talk of Tories going on a “vote strike” on other legislation but there is no other legislation, there is only Brexit. This is it.

As one colleague put it this week: “There is shitshow as far as the eye can see.”

Corbyn could help, but at what price? A customs union? May’s manifesto opposed it, she could live with it, but too many Tory MPs won’t. Perhaps as many as 100. They could be outweighed by Labour MPs but Corbyn cannot deliver them without a promise of a second referendum, which he gives the impression of not supporting. There are perhaps 80 Labour MPs who have made clear that they will not support any deal that does not include a people’s vote.

Right now the pair of them could agree on leaving the European Union, with a two-year transition, followed by “ambitious customs arrangements” (in May’s words) or a “permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union” (in Corbyn’s), with a commitment to end freedom of movement and to stick to EU standards on environmental and workers' rights.

The problem is that it will split the two main parties, who have dominated politics for a century, down the middle.

On May’s side, from the cabinet down there is opposition to a customs union. Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, is unsurprisingly opposed as it leaves him unable to conduct any international trade talks and he will have to leave his wheelie suitcase at home.

Others agree with him, somehow now claiming that an independent trade policy is what the people voted for in June 2016. You can make up your own mind about whether a trade deal with Narnia will outweigh the economic impact of new trade barriers with the EU. Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, is less bothered, saying he is more concerned that Britain leaves at all.

On Corbyn’s side, pressure for a second referendum is at boiling point. Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, wrote a letter to all Labour MPs saying that “any deal agreed by parliament must be subject to a confirmatory public vote and, yes, the other option on the ballot must be Remain.” Ian Lavery, the Labour chairman, told the shadow cabinet that the party “could be finished” by another referendum. For his part, Corbyn merely “raised the option of a public vote” in yesterday's talks.

Apparently keener on the idea is Philip Hammond, the chancellor, who told ITV’s Peston last night: “Many people will disagree with it, I’m not sure there’s a majority in parliament for it, but it’s a perfectly credible proposition and it deserves to be tested.”

Britain was supposed to have left the EU six days ago. Instead we don't know when, how or even if we will.

This is not a crisis to be solved in parliament. It is a crisis made in parliament. Parties split from top to bottom. Backbenchers passing laws. A majority against everything, nobody for anything.

“I have never seen a bigger shambles,” Ken Clarke told the Today programme this morning. It will get bigger yet.

Red Box: Comment

Don’t fear for the future, students are already learning from Brexit mistakes

Max Jeffery – Student

A people’s vote is not a Brexit option, it is a solution

Jenna Norman – Women's Campaign for a People's Vote

Poll of the day

The Sketch

The PM, as we must still call her, was numb — perhaps past caring

Quentin Letts

Around Theresa May now, emptiness. Arriving for PMQs, she made her way, alone, hunched, to her perch. Not one Conservative cheered or smiled. Backbenchers looked away, down at the floor, up at the ceiling, anywhere but at the porcelain nape of a leader who had said that she could do business with Jeremy Corbyn and his customs union notions.

Read the full sketch

Division, clear the lobbies

Last night the Commons attempt to build consensus, with MPs taking control of the order paper, showed again how deep the divisions go. A vote ended in a tie, a dead heat. 310 to 310. Precedent meant that John Bercow used his casting vote to knock it down.

What were they voting on? An amendment to a business motion to allow a third round of indicative votes on Monday.

The business motion passed unamended, allowing time to debate a bill forcing May to request another extension to Article 50 instead of leaving with no deal. This finally passed late last night by 312 to 311. Yes, that consensus is really coming together.

Read the full story

Tweets of the day

Battle for Brexit

More than 10,000 riot police are on standby in case of disorder and looting following a no-deal Brexit.

Martin Hewitt, the new head of the National Police Chiefs’ Council, warned politicians and campaigners not to inflame the “incredibly febrile” atmosphere surrounding the Brexit deadlock.

Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, tells Sky News that the risk of a no-deal Brexit is now "alarmingly high", branding suggestions that such a scenario could be managed as "absolute nonsense".

A fascinating splash from The Guardian: A series of hugely influential Facebook advertising campaigns that appear to be separate grassroots movements for a no-deal Brexit are secretly overseen by employees of Sir Lynton Crosby’s lobbying company and a former adviser to Boris Johnson.

And the BBC reports that civil servants have been offered specialised support to deal with the stress of preparing for a no-deal Brexit.

Red Box: Comment

MPs can reach Leave voters by taking further education seriously

James Kirkup – The Times

Leadershipwatch

Two brilliant interviews with a couple of the names often described as outsiders for the Tory leadership.

The New Statesman’s Patrick Maguire sat down with Steve Baker, the hardline Brexiteer, for what turned into a slightly strange conversation. Lots of gems, including the phrase: “I’ve known the taste of surrender. And I’m never tasting it again.”

But the standout moment comes when he talks up his own chances of become leader (“I can perform at the dispatch box, I can do media well”) before concluding: “I would rather be able to go to work scruffy and unshaven, in shorts and flip-flops, programming computers and leading software start-ups… Rather that than [have] all the nightmare of being prime minister.” Well worth a read.

Meanwhile The Spectator’s Katy Balls has interviewed another backbencher with pretensions for greatness, Johnny Mercer. He declares that in a snap election “the party will get wiped out”, he doesn’t think you need any cabinet experience to run the country and he insists that having once stripped off for a Dove soap advert doesn’t mean that he couldn’t be PM: “I am too good-looking to be prime minister? Well, that sums up the ridiculous nature of the debate.” Read it here

I asked if Jeremy Corbyn should help Theresa May. 70 per cent said yes. Full result here

Have your say

How should Jeremy Corbyn respond to Theresa May's offer?

George Fairhurst said: "Corbyn should meet the PM, tweet that he’s trying for a customs union with wiggle room for a people's vote, get a lovely photo of him outside No 10 and that’s all he need do. After spending four years decrying Corbyn as an out-of-control threat to national security that should be nowhere near power, Theresa May has legitimised Corbyn and his position in politics. This is nearly as bad as when she accidentally proved he isn’t totally unelectable."

David Greenwood said: "Corbyn should respond constructively and in the national interest, setting aside narrow party interests."

Michael Smith said: "By being constructive and offering to back something like a customs union tacked on to the May deal. But he won’t. The last thing he wants to do is facilitate her deal, however modified. He’ll argue for things he doesn’t really want, like membership of the single market and a second referendum, to force her to reject them so he can blame the mess on her. Not of course that he’s wrong to do that but the failure of the PM’s approach here will be down to him alone."

TODAY: What will you do this weekend to take your mind off Brexit? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best tomorrow.

The best comment

Two-party cartel would regret an election now

David Aaronovitch – The Times

We’re all paying the price for May’s little lie

Jenni Russell – The Times

Old photos are worth a thousand iPhone shots

Janice Turner – The Times

My friends are crying in the toilets — Brexit is affecting the mental health of everyone in Westminster

Tara O'Reilly - the i

The value of the customs union to the UK is overrated

Larry Elliott - The Guardian

The cartoon

Today's cartoon from The Times by Peter Brookes

Need to know

TARGET PRACTICE: A shocking video of British paratroopers opening fire on a picture of Jeremy Corbyn has prompted an investigation by the army. (The Times)

MOGG’s STRUGGLE: Jacob Rees-Mogg has criticised the BBC for having a “lefty obsession” after he was accused of supporting a party of the German far right. (The Times)

WINDRUSH PAYOUTS: The cost of the Windrush scandal was laid bare yesterday as the home secretary said that the government would pay victims hundreds of millions of pounds in compensation. (The Times)

OFF TRACK: Chris Grayling’s department has a “laissez-faire attitude” to Crossrail and it is likely to open more than two years late and £3 billion over budget, according to a Commons report. (The Times)

CHINESE TAKEAWAY: Communist China is being given too easy a ride by the UK government, it is warned today. (The Sun)

TAKE NOTE: An MP said that the new £50 note should recognise the contribution made by Britain’s black, Asian or minority-ethnic communities. (the i)

Red Box: Comment

Settled status scheme for EU citizens risks being next Windrush

Charlotte O'Brien – Migration law professor

‘Our democracy is under threat’

An extraordinary moment in the House of Commons yesterday: a speech by Rosie Cooper, the Labour MP who was the focus of a terrorist plot in which a former member of a far-right group planned to kill her with a machete designed to look like a Roman sword.

“I was to be murdered to send a message to the state, to send a message to this place,” she said. “Members of this House are regularly abused and attacked. Our freedoms, our way of life, our democracy is under threat and we must do our utmost to defend it.”

Read the full story

TMS

From the diary

By Patrick Kidd

Going underground

Is the London Underground being used to send subtle messages to MPs as they go to work? On the travel information whiteboard by Westminster Tube station’s ticket barriers a motivational message appeared yesterday that read: “Perfection is not attainable. But if we chase perfection we can catch excellence.” The wisdom of Vince Lombardi, an American football coach, but Theresa May could have written it herself. Some other Lombardi quotes, however, may seem more relevant to the PM’s handling of Brexit, such as “Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing” or “We didn’t lose the game. We just ran out of time.”