Red Box - Friday March 22 2019

PLUS: Morten Morland on May’s nightmare

View in your browser

Friday March 22 2019

By Matt Chorley

Good morning,

Cancel the disco. If and when we leave the EU, the celebrations could be costly. Copyright holders have announced a 130 per cent increase in the cost of DJs playing recorded music at events.

Which is one way to stop Theresa May dancing.

Join us to try to make sense of it all at Brexit Tamed LIVE on Tuesday night, with a stellar panel of Times and Sunday Times experts explaining what is going to happen. Or just sitting with our heads in our hands. Book tickets here

Matt Chorley

Red Box Editor

@MattChorley

The briefing

Theresa May is facing a fresh backlash from Tory MPs after agreeing to extend Brexit to May 22. Or maybe April 12.
Donald Tusk, the European Council president, faces a backlash of his own after responding to a question about whether he thinks there is still a special place in hell for Brexiteers without a plan “According to our pope, hell is still empty,” Tusk said. “It means there are a lot of spaces.”
The fallout from the PM’s blame-game speech attacking MPs on Wednesday night continues, with Julian Smith, the chief whip, branding it “appalling” and one cabinet minister telling The Times: “Yesterday must go down as the most inept performance of a Downing Street of all time.” The Telegraph says Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee, has told the PM that MPs want her to go.
Paula Sherriff, a Labour MP who was sent a message saying her head should be chopped off, revealed she had cornered the prime minister and urged her to “dial down the hate”.
Today's trivia: At 8am, which Leave seat has the highest percentage of constituents to sign the Revoke Article 50 petition? Answer at the bottom of today's email

Week, week, week

One week. That’s all. A week today we were going to leave the European Union, with or without a deal, unless someone came up with an alternative.

That alternative is another two weeks. The end never quite arriving, like a taxi which the operator says is just coming round the end of your road now. Be there in a minute, a week, three weeks, perhaps a year.

If MPs approve Theresa May’s deal this week (stop sniggering) Britain will have until May 22 to pass the necessary legislation for a smooth exit. If not, the cliff edge has been put back until April 12 to come up with that magic something which has so far eluded everyone. It would mean no-deal, or a much longer extension, European elections, and then who knows what?

The picture in Westminster could only be bleaker if Lyse Doucet turned up in a flak jacket and a Red Cross food truck full of rice.

That awful “it’s exciting isn’t it?” childishness has given way to the realisation that there is no good way out of this. Nothing is going to turn up. It won’t be alright in the end. It is now a question of how not alright.

That this prime minister, this government, this parliament has squandered a global reputation for steadiness, competence, pragmatism, moderation and civility so utterly is a matter of huge regret. That so many still seem oblivious to either its effects, or their role in it, is enough to make you scream or weep or both.

This is not to say it is any one person or group’s fault. This is a collective failure: a political class in which each player believed they would eventually outfox the rest, some biding their time waiting for a moment that never comes, others charging into every battle having long forgotten whatever logic there might have been to their fight.

You have Brexiteers who once put their name to Vote Leave leaflets that promised to negotiate a new trade deal with the EU before even triggering Article 50 now claiming that crashing/frolicking out onto WTO rules will not only be just dandy, but was actually what 17 million people voted for all along.

Remainers who claimed they wanted to honour the referendum while winking and blowing kisses to those trying to overturn it.

MPs who claim they really were about to vote for May’s deal honest until she was a bit rude about them on the telly.

A prime minister who believed in nothing, trying to pretend she believed in the most extreme form of Brexit to placate the wolves at the door. The problem with throwing red meat to angry wolves is that they are never sated, but will bare their teeth and just demand more red meat.

A leader of the opposition who would be widely viewed as a secret Brexiteer had he not spent so much time convincing us he was a closet antisemite. Whose “jobs-first Brexit” was as hollow, if less memorable, than the red, white and blue varieties promised by the prime minister.

“Brexit means Brexit, and we are going to make a success of it.” Remember that? Three years on nobody can even agree what Brexit means, and the idea of it being a success is some whimsical luxury that we don’t have time for right now.

In fact there is no good way out of this. May’s deal will come back this week, probably Tuesday or Wednesday, and even if it does pass will simply lay new mines to explode later. Each day of extension provides new, exciting ways for wreckers to wreck.

May spent two hours being grilled by baffled and furious EU leaders yesterday over what she would do if MPs vote her deal down a third time. By the end, one prime minister said: “The only thing that came through with clarity was her lack of a plan.” No wonder Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said no-deal was “inevitable”.

No-deal will wreak economic, social and political havoc. When Brextremists say things like there might be “some disruption” remember it is always the poorest who pay the price for the games of the wealthy.

All the other forms of Brexit are a mirage: Norway, Canada, Common Market 2.0. Each one as contradictory, and both as politically and practically unlikely as the deal May has got.

An election would likely solve nothing, and might split both main parties once and for all, while failing to deliver a definitive result to resolve the Brexit question.

A new prime minister could be installed, but who really thinks that Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt or Sajid Javid or Penny Mordaunt or Jacob Rees-Mogg or Amber Rudd or any of them could untangle the mess and unite even their own party around anything else. In fact, a divisive new Tory leader could make matters worse.

A petition to revoke Article 50 and just stay in the EU has been signed by 2 million people, who presumably also have a plan to dust the nation with a cloud of memory-wiping serum so the entire country forgets that Brexit was ever a thing. Pressed on whether he would back revocation, Jeremy Corbyn provided the leadership and clarity we need: “These are hypotheticals.”

A second referendum would achieve what? According to John Curtice’s What UK Thinks, the last six polls before the June 2016 vote put Remain on 52 per cent, before they lost with 48 per cent.

Right now, the last six polls on a second referendum puts Remain on 53 per cent. So what would another one do? Narrowly overturn the result, setting us up for a third? Or confirm Leave; and then what? Never mind the answer, nobody knows what the question is.

Thousands will march on London tomorrow demanding a People’s Vote. We will be told there was more than a million. They will travel from far and wide because the man from Star Trek and Delia Smith paid for their buses. They will have witty placards and exotic packed lunches and make fabulous new friends, and then go home feeling really good about themselves. And that will be that.

It is as futile as the bedraggled mud-splattered few dozen Leavers walking from Sunderland to London to cry betrayal. Both marches are as easy to mock as to ignore. Not a single person will have their mind changed by either.

Nobody has changed their mind. Not really. Many Leave voters in their hearts will know this is not what they were promised or hoped for. Many Remainers privately now wonder if we aren’t now better to leave, too far out the door to take our coat off again and slip sheepishly back into the EU’s party.

I’ve been doing this job for more than three years, back when David Cameron was battling for Blighty in his renegotiation. Remember that? Now I don’t really know what to tell you. Or even how to see the funny side.

A week used to be a long time in politics.

It turns out it was nowhere near long enough.

Red Box: Comment

We are not powerless to stop Brexit. We must fill the streets

Dan Snow – TV historian

Battle for Brexit

Not worrying at all: Military planners have taken to a nuclear bunker under Whitehall as they step up no-deal Brexit preparations.

Brexit is creating unlikely allies: The CBI and the TUC warned in a highly unusual joint intervention yesterday that Britain faced a national emergency, demanding that Theresa May produce a “Plan B” to prevent a no-deal departure.

The Bank of England says four in five British companies are as ready as they can be for a disorderly no-deal Brexit.

Rain means Nigel Farage has ducked out of the Leave Means Leave march, but Patrick Kidd joined them instead. He writes: “The legs were tiring, the feet starting to throb and when someone called out ‘woddawewant?’ for the ten thousandth time it was hard not to reply: ‘A beer, for the love of God.’”

Red Box: Comment

We must now sort out the constitutional mess exposed by Brexit

John Kampfner – commentator

Tweet of the day

This letter tweeted by Amber Rudd, the cabinet minister, is just about Hastings pier and is definitely, definitely not an extended metaphor for her anger at Theresa May’s handing of Brexit and poor communication skills.

The Sketch

A hostile environment of the PM’s own making

Quentin Letts

Great Umbrage in the Deepings. MPs quivered with crossness at Theresa May for saying on Wednesday night that the public had “had enough” of parliamentary ruses. Criticise the Commons? How very dare she? Valerie Vaz, shadow leader of the House, complained that Mrs May had created a “hostile environment”. Ms Vaz was certainly pretty aggressive to her opponent, Andrea Leadsom, and spat angry words at her for “laughing”. All Mrs Leadsom had done was smile in gratitude at her neighbour, Andrew Stephenson, for helping her with her folder.

Read the full sketch

Chart of the day

Front page of the day

While almost every paper splashes on the news from Brussels, the Daily Star takes a rather different line. The paper’s unpolitical editor Antony Thrower writes: “Today your fun-loving Daily Star urges the country to stand together and scream: We’ve had enough of Brexit – its time for a Break-Xit! Our self-styled Unpolitical Editor Antony Thrower is spearheading our campaign to give the nation a total rest from any EU exit talk for one whole day. Or in other words: SHUT IT!”

I asked how happy you were. More of you are as happy as Theresa than happy as Larry. Full result here

Have your say

What do you think the EU should have said to Theresa May yesterday?

Jonathan Bell: "Three strikes and you're out. If your deal is not passed tomorrow, we give you nine months in which to hold a second referendum for the people to decide on your deal or no Brexit - take it or leave it."

Linda Smith: "There’s the door, Mrs May, make sure you close it on your way out as you won’t be let back in!"

Ian Orlebar: "Act in the national interest for once. Go back, revoke your premature Art. 50(2) notice to leave and arrange the first ever UK definitive plebiscite to make the decision."

Eric Prescott: "They should say non, non, non. Go back and smell the coffee, we are as exhausted as your electorate. So fin."

Steven Deller: "Very simply the EU should say no delay, no more votes, no deal, get lost next Friday."

TODAY: What do you think is going to happen next week? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best tomorrow.

The best comment

MPs are as much to blame for this Brexit mess as May

Philip Collins – The Times

Macron’s harsh words make no deal more likely

Iain Martin – The Times

The brutal business of reality TV

Caitlin Moran – The Times

Apocalypse it is, then. Not now, but probably next week

Marina Hyde - The Guardian

History ought to take a more balanced view of Blair’s record as PM

Jon Davis & John Rentoul - The Independent

The cartoon

Today's cartoon from The Times by Peter Brookes

Need to know

FOLLOW THE MONEY I: Boris Johnson has received another £15,000 donation from JCB, the construction company, as he prepares for a potential Conservative Party leadership contest. (The Times)

FOLLOW THE MONEY II: Lord Myners, a former minister in Gordon Brown’s government, has made a “significant” donation to the Independent Group. (The Times)

ASSISTED DYING: One of the country’s most influential medical bodies has ended its opposition to assisted dying after a poll that opponents branded “absurd”. (The Times)

COUNCIL CONTESTS: Cuts to local government funding are hitting the most deprived areas of the UK the hardest, the Labour party has said at the launch of its local elections campaign in Stoke-on-Trent. (The Guardian)

WAITING TIMES: Charities have blasted the government after it emerged disabled people are waiting three and a half months to get vital benefits. (Daily Mirror)

ENEMY WITHIN: Countdown star Rachel Riley yesterday warned that some Labour members see Jews as “the enemy”. (The Sun)

Red Box: Comment

Today dozens of worthy causes will be consigned to the dustbin

Christine Jardine – Lib Dem MP

School exclusions are too often a one-way ticket to the scrap-heap

Robert Halfon – Conservative MP

Now read this

Her composed, compassionate and dignified response to the massacre of Muslim worshippers has been the making of Jacinda Ardern, completing a journey from policy nerd to international stateswoman.

Bernard Lagan reports on how the New Zealand PM became the world’s favourite liberal.

TMS

From the diary

By Patrick Kidd

Strong on stables

Amid the tumult on Parliament Square as pro and anti-Brexit protesters fight for pavement space and tourists ask “Hey, where’s the clock gone?”, one man is doing his bit for classical learning. Robert Wright has spent weeks parading a sign that reads “Clean out the Augean Stables”. He says that he had to explain this reference to the fifth labour of Hercules to some passing Americans the other day. “You mean ‘Drain the swamp’?” they asked. When Wright concurred, one replied: “You Brits are so classy.”