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| Monday May 20 2019 |
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By Matt Chorley
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Good morning,
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It’s the long-running saga that began with high drama but has since become repetitive, confusing and dogged by silly characters.
At least it has finally come to an end, with the last episode of Game of Thrones broadcast in the US.
The Brexit boxset, meanwhile, shows no sign of reaching its finale. Stay tuned.
LISTEN: Catch me every weekday morning giving a sneak preview of what's coming up in Red Box at 7.30am with Julia Hartley-Brewer at breakfast on TalkRadio. Listen here
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The briefing
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- Theresa May is to start briefing aides and ministers on her latest Brexit gambit. Matt Hancock, the health secretary, told LBC this morning: "The Conservative party is straining every sinew to deliver Brexit." Hmm.
- The government has been accused of developing a secret policy on torture that allows ministers to sign off intelligence-sharing that could lead to the abuse of detainees.
- Penny Mordaunt, the new defence secretary, makes her debut at defence questions in the Commons. Expect a lot of questions about prosecuting veterans.
- Nicola Sturgeon has suggested that she would still push for a second independence referendum even if the UK remained in the European Union.
- Lord Dobbs, creator of House of Cards and Brexiteer, will make a call in the Lords later for a royal commission or equivalent inquiry to “examine any lessons to be learnt from the 2016 European Union referendum and subsequent events".
- Is this really what the Queen thinks (or thought) about Europe?
- It has taken a while, but tonight we finally have a definitive (five-part) series on the career of Margaret Thatcher. Love her or hate her, this is essential viewing.
- Today’s trivia question: In which year and which region did the governing party receive the lowest percentage of votes ever in a European election? Answer at the bottom of today's email.
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The next Tory manifesto
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It is a strange quirk of British politics that our next prime minister will be chosen by perhaps as few as 60,000 people.
There are thought to be around 125,000 members of the Conservative Party who will get to vote on the final two candidates chosen by Tory MPs. Whoever gets more than half the votes wins.
Becoming leader, and therefore prime minister, depends on winning over this small, exclusive electorate.
Promises will have to be made to win their support, which will not be easily dropped.
So what the Tory members do or don’t like will become key to the leadership contest, and the promises the candidates make, and then later the contents of a future Conservative manifesto.
If only we had some way of knowing what Tory members think.
Oh look, we’re in luck. A YouGov poll for The Times of Conservative Party members made waves at the weekend when it revealed that Boris Johnson is easily the frontrunner, with 39 per cent making him their first choice, and the former foreign secretary winning every run-off with eight named opponents.
Although, as David Davis told me for Radio 4’s The Week in Westminster: “The risk of being the frontrunner, particularly if you’re the long-time frontrunner, is that you become the target of everybody. I don’t think there has been a leadership contest where the frontrunner has won. That systemic opposition the frontrunner from everybody else, the system and so on, is a real handicap.”
So how can Johnson overcome this? What does he need to promise the Tory members? Today, in the second part of the poll, we reveal where the members stand on key issues.
The first, and perhaps least surprising, is that they want Theresa May to go. Patience has run out. Just 16 per cent want her to stay. Just 2 per cent think she has been a “great prime minister”. With friends like these...
On Brexit, 81 per cent think Britain was right to vote to leave, while 64 per cent oppose May’s deal, which she will try to resurrect again this week.
Two-thirds (66 per cent) of Tory members think Britain should leave the EU without a deal. Expect this to become a key battleground. The leadership candidate who makes the straightforward case for no-deal is likely to hoover up votes.
A new cabinet split has emerged too: Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, went on TV yesterday and called for no-deal planning to be stepped up, but only minutes later Rory Stewart, the new international development secretary (and leadership contender), said that it should be ruled out in law.
Barclay refused to rule out running, telling Sky News’ Sophy Ridge on Sunday: “The good thing about my job is I have so much to do I don’t need to be posing in kitchens,” he said in a reference to his predecessor Dominic Raab’s domestic photoshoot.
Amber Rudd, who famously said Johnson was “not the man you want driving you home at the end of the evening” is relaunching the so-called One Nation Caucus to block a candidate who backs no-deal.
Last month a YouGov poll of the wider public found that half of voters thought no-deal was a “bad outcome” and just a quarter thought it was a good idea. But they are not who gets to choose the next Tory leader.
Among those that do, just 13 per cent think the government should have another go at negotiating a new deal which Tory and DUP MPs can support, and only 6 per cent want to rely on Labour votes.
Opposition to a second referendum is strong: 80 per cent oppose a vote with May’s deal, remain and no-deal on the ballot, rising to 84 per cent against a vote on May’s deal or remain.
Away from Brexit, there is the outline of a manifesto emerging. More than half of Tory members (52 per cent) want to cancel the HS2 high-speed rail between London, Birmingham and the north of England.
Perhaps sensing which way this is going, leading business and political leaders have joined forces to warn that failure to build HS2 would be a “disaster” for the economy in the Midlands and north of England. It includes Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, Judith Blake, the Labour leader of Leeds city council, and Sir Richard Leese, the Labour leader of Manchester city council.
In September Johnson came out against HS2: “There are projects we should have on transport in the north of the country that ought to take precedence over HS2.” Since then Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom have come out against, while Liz Truss wants to review it.
Three quarters of Tory members want to drop the 0.7 per cent foreign aid target (which Johnson came out against in February).
Some 43 per cent want to keep tax and spending at their current levels, while 34 per cent want to perform the classic magic trick of simultaneously cutting spending, borrowing and taxes, something Johnson pledged at the Tory conference in September: “We should be constantly aiming not to increase but to cut taxes. It is the conservative approach that gets things done so let's follow our conservative instincts.”
Johnson reaches for another classic Tory issues – law and order – today, using his Telegraph column to claim that letting drug dealers out of prison to go on spa breaks is “criminally stupid”.
So far, so predictable for the Tory membership. Two surprises: 59 per cent think it was right to allow same-sex marriage (a long way from the grassroots revolt which supposedly threatened David Cameron’s early days).
And 36 per cent want more emphasis on the environment and climate change, with only 19 per cent wanting less. We might not witness any huskies being hugged but expect candidates to present themselves as a friend of Sir David Attenborough.
Not that we will be seeing this Tory election manifesto anytime soon: three quarters want whoever becomes PM to govern right through until 2022 without going to the country. Which, like most demands from party members, might be easier said than done.
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Read the full story
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Poll of the day
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Go bold or go home
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We have had the hard Brexit, soft Brexit, green Brexit, grey Brexit, red, white and blue Brexit.
Now, as Theresa May’s final flourish, we get the Bold Brexit. The PM is preparing to make a “bold new offer” to MPs in a fourth attempt to pass her deal. No details have been publicised and she is expected to begin canvassing opinion from senior ministers today before cabinet tomorrow.
There is a risk it is already dead: David Davis, the former Brexit secretary who switched to back May’s deal on the second meaningful vote, told LBC he would not vote for the withdrawal agreement bill next month.
A bold new move by Jeremy Corbyn too, as he suggested that free movement of people from the EU to Britain could continue even after the UK leaves. Reminder: Labour’s 2017 manifesto said: “Freedom of movement will end when we leave the European Union.”
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On Friday I asked how you would feel if Boris Johnson became prime minister. In one of the biggest turnouts we’ve seen for a while, you made clear you would really not be happy. Full result here
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Have your say
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I asked who you would like to have as next prime minister:
Christine Gregg: “Margaret Thatcher. Even from beyond the grave she’s got more backbone than any of today’s self-serving lot!”
Francesca Ralph: “Rory Stewart is my choice. He has actually lived outside the Westminster bubble and has been successful at most things he has tackled.“
Deborah King: “I would like Rory Stewart to win. He had the humility to say he would resign as prisons minister if he didn’t meet his own targets. He has also got experience in managing war-torn areas, which is a bit like the UK at the moment. He is thoughtful, patient with interviewers and intelligent.”
Graham Young: “Tracey Crouch. A lady of principle (that probably ruins her chances).”
Ian Orlebar: “Philip Hammond.” Barry Power: “Jeremy Hunt.” William Dickson: “Chris Grayling obviously.”
Ian Makepeace: “Michael Grove - intelligent, personable , full of energy, great orator or anyone but Boris.”
Valerie Fairbank: “If there is still a cat at No 10 I would ask it.”
And John Duncan, Carolyn McCrae, Simon Evers, Peter Cooper, Neil Reed and several others all said: “Anyone but Boris!”
TODAY: How could his opponents “stop Boris”? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best tomorrow.
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The cartoon
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Today's cartoon from The Times by Morten Morland
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Need to know
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COME HOME: Sajid Javid is to give British citizens in northern Syria 28 days to leave or face up to ten years in prison when they return to the UK. (The Times)
COLONIAL PAST: Jeremy Corbyn has suggested that Britain should consider paying reparations to its former colonies. (The Times)
SPY CLAIMS: Geoffrey Robinson, a veteran Labour MP, has denied claims that he was a spy for communist Czechoslovakia during the Cold War. (The Times)
MONEY TALKS: The Electoral Commission is under mounting pressure to launch an investigation into the funding of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party. Gordon Brown has written to the Electoral Commission calling on it to urgently examine whether the party has sufficient safeguards on its website to prevent the contribution of “dirty money”. (The Guardian)
BUILDING BLOCK: Housing developers would be forced to train a British worker for every foreign employee hired under plans being considered by Labour. (The Independent)
ANGER MANAGEMENT: Misbehaving MPs could be sent on anger management courses, barred from restaurants and banned from foreign junkets. (The Sun)
LAST POST: Up to 2,500 small post offices will close or downsize in the next 12 months because of financial hardship, says the National Federation of Sub-Postmasters. (Daily Mail)
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Chart of the day
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A new mega-poll gives us some idea of what might happen on Thursday. A YouGov survey, funded by the pro-Remain campaign group Best for Britain, shows once again that the Brexit Party is miles out in front.
But the survey is so big it is able to give regional results, and from that project how many MEPs each party will get.
It suggests the Lib Dems could get the second highest share of the vote, but came third behind Labour in terms of seats.
And bad news for both Change UK and Ukip, who could be left with no MEPs at all.
The Conservative grandee Lord Heseltine faced calls to be expelled from the party after he revealed that he would vote for the Liberal Democrats in Thursday’s European elections. This morning Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said that Heseltine was a "big figure" in the Tory party who had been at odds with the frontbench for years. Asked if Heseltine should be “biffed out” of the party for voting Lib Dem, Hancock told LBC radio: "I don't think so. I very much hope that we can bring the party back together after all of these rows. I think it would help to have the party in one piece."
Meanwhile Dame Margaret Hodge, a Labour veteran, reportedly told people at an event organised by a think tank that they should vote for pro- Remain candidates on Thursday even if that means not supporting Labour.
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Now read this
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Review: Al Murray the Pub Landlord
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★★★☆☆
Dominic Maxwell writes: “If there is one comedian who can sort out this whole dog’s dinner of a Brexit for us, it should be the Pub Landlord. No, not Al Murray, the Oxford history graduate who has been performing as this saloon-bar Socrates for more than 25 years. Murray knows better than many of us just how flaming knotty this whole farrago is. Yet his creation, a man of the people with such brilliantly binary views on the French, the Germans, people who eat quinoa and those jokers who voted Remain, must have some gigantic views on where we are.”
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Read the full story
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The agenda
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Today
- Damian Hinds, the education secretary, announces £2.5 million funding for 20 new "careers hubs".
- Chris Skidmore, the universities minister, attends a Reform event on advanced technology and economic growth.
- Andrew Stephenson, the industry minister, attends a meeting of the all-party parliamentary group on steel and metal-related industries.
- 4pm David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, gives evidence to the public administration and constitutional affairs committee on the UK constitution: the use of military force.
- 6pm Meeting of the parliamentary Labour Party.
House of Commons
- 2.30pm Defence questions.
- Non-Domestic Rating (Preparation for Digital Services) Bill: committee and remaining stages
- Backbench business: motion on medical cannabis under prescription.
- Adjournment: contribution of Billy McNeill MBE to Scotland, UK and European football (Brendan O'Hara)
House of Lords
- 2.30pm Questions on establishing a royal commission or equivalent inquiry into the EU referendum; preventing fraud perpetrated on bank customers; intergenerational fairness in the Spending Review; and passenger assumptions for HS2 for the number of passengers and the average fare between London and Birmingham.
- Criminal Injuries Compensation Scheme 2012 (Amendment) Instrument 2019.
- Rehabilitation of Offenders Act 1974 (Exceptions) Order 1975 (Amendment) (England and Wales) Order 2019
- Higher Education (Monetary Penalties and Refusal to Renew an Access and Participation Plan) (England) Regulations 2019.
- International Road Passenger Transport (Amendment) (Northern Ireland) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019.
- Connecting Europe Facility (Revocation) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019.
- Buckinghamshire (Structural Changes) Order 2019.
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Today's trivia answer
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In the 2009 European parliament elections Labour got 7.7 per cent of the vote in the South West.
Send your trivia to redbox@thetimes.co.uk
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@MattChorley
