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| Thursday March 8 2018 |
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By Matt Chorley
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Good morning,
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It has been a bad year for acronyms. First Ukip spiralled into trouble, now NME has bitten the dust.
While others have spoken of starting their careers on the music mag, my only claim to fame is that I once helped out a mate who had been commissioned to write for them. It was a report on a Mendip council planning meeting about the licensing of Glastonbury. Rock and, indeed, roll.
My only concern is where will Jeremy Corbyn promise to "deal with" student debt now?
- Red Box is a must-read in No 10, and across Westminster. Know someone who is missing out? Get them signed up today thetimes.co.uk/redbox
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Must reads
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- A former Russian spy and his daughter were the victims of a targeted attack with a nerve agent, increasing the likelihood that it was a Kremlin-sponsored assassination attempt.
- Lady Judge, chairwoman of the Institute of Directors, bullied her staff and made racist comments about them, according to preliminary findings of a legal investigation seen by The Times.
- Parents of “boomerang” children who move back into the family home are more likely to be miserable than “empty nesters”.
- Praise be: Avocado hand, the peculiarly middle-class knife injury caused while removing the stone of the fruit, could be a thing of the past thanks to a group of schoolchildren.
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Er... well that's clear
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Something strange is happening in Westminster. Or, to be more precise, nothing is happening in Westminster.
No votes for a week, no big rebellions or new plots or explosive rows. All is becalmed.
Brexit has fallen over over everything else like a blanket of snow, both leaders apparently having convinced their own sides that, for the time being at least, they know what they are doing.
Voters are less sure. In the past fortnight we have had the Big Speeches from Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn on their plans for Brexit.
The prime minister gave a dose of honesty that actually maybe things wouldn't be exactly the same when we leave the EU after all.
The Labour leader said that we should stay in a customs union after months of being told to do just that by his bitter enemies in the Labour party.
Since then, the proportion of voters who are clear about Labour's policy has . . . gone down, according to the latest YouGov poll for The Times.
Just before Corbyn's speech last month 22 per cent of people said that Labour's Brexit policy was "clear". That has fallen four points to 18 per cent, while those saying that it is "confusing" has risen by four points to 59 per cent. Even Labour voters are split 42/40 on clear/confusing.
At the same time the proportion of people who say that the Tory policy is clear has risen by four points from 25 to 29 per cent. Overall 36 per cent of people, including one in ten Labour voters, support May's approach. Only 21 per cent of all voters back Corbyn.
It is a wonder that anyone even claims to have a view. In Westminster, people are, well, a bit bored. At PMQs yesterday, once the box office smash of the parliamentary week, I counted space for at least a dozen Tories on the backbenches. More if they all squeezed up a bit.
Corbyn was fine, segueing oddly from Saudi Arabia to rough sleeping without either issue catching light. May was better, explaining why we have allies like the Saudis and cruelly responding to a bland observation from Corbyn about International Women's Day with: "I think that is what is called mansplaining."
Everything is sort of fine. May, who a few short weeks ago seemed to be on the edge of being ousted and may yet be again, has settled her party for now. Sunday papers had been poised for the Brexitremist vs Remoaner fallout of the Mansion House speech but it never came.
The EU published its draft negotiating guidelines for the post-Brexit deal and it was met mostly with a shrug and mutterings of: "Well they would say that, wouldn't they?"
Philip Hammond gave a speech on his vision for Brexit yesterday, and nobody really even noticed, never mind complained about it (apart from fishermen).
Most astonishingly Nick Timothy, who was Hammond's former nemesis when he was the PM's chief of staff, tweeted: "I agree with the chancellor."
Remember that the pair have history, after someone on Team Hammond briefed that Timothy was "economically illiterate" while in No10. This is like Liam tweeting: "I agree with Noel."
Things in the Labour party are just as strange. Corbyn goes on. Getting no better but getting no worse. Playing by his own rules, punting social media videos to the converted while picking up the political baggage that a leader does over time.
“It’s all alright,” one shadow minister says. “It’s fine. He’s leader. That’s it. Where’s it all going? Who knows.”
A government-in-waiting? Or just waiting for this government to fold? The latest YouGov poll has only 29 per cent thinking that Corbyn would make the best prime minister, with May on 36 per cent.
She has had an average of a six-point lead since the start of the year, compared with a four-point lead between the election and Christmas. Surely the sheen isn't coming off Corbynmania?
Labour still has a two-point lead on voting intention (43 to 41). Even after Brexit and the snow and the NHS crisis and rough sleeping and everything else, the two parties remain neck and neck.
As one Tory MP puts it: “Neck and neck is fine. I’ll take that all the way to the election. I never want to see a f***ing 20-point lead ever again.”
I don't think he needs to worry too much about that.
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Do you do voodoo?
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Is this what has becalmed the Tory and Labour MPs previously agitating against their leaders?
Apparently sticking pins into a virtual effigy of an unpopular boss quenches the thirst for revenge without any of the bloodstains and litigation associated with physical assault, scientists claim.
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Read the full story
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YESTERDAY'S QUESTION: I asked you how seriously Russia takes Britain's threats. Not all all, said 90 per cent of you. Full results here
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Today's cartoon from The Times by Peter Brookes
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Colluding in war crimes
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Jeremy Corbyn has accused the government of colluding in war crimes committed by Saudi forces in Yemen in an intervention that prompted a furious response from Downing Street.
As Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, began a three-day visit to the UK, the Labour leader used prime minister’s questions to attack Theresa May for co-operating with the regime, claiming that British forces personnel were “directing” the conflict in Yemen. Downing Street hit back, saying that Corbyn’s allegation was “simply not true”.
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Something fishy
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The EU's negotiating guidelines warn Britain to expect “negative economic consequences” from Brexit, saying that the new relationship would be “complicated and costly” and “inevitably lead to frictions”. But it raised eyebrows in London for demanding that the UK continue to allow access to European fishing fleets while apparently ruling out a bespoke deal for the City of London.
I understand that Theresa May has privately vowed not to “do a Heath” by "selling out the fishing industry". Edward Heath was accused of causing lasting damage to the UK industry in 1970 when he signed up to the Common Fisheries Policy as the price of joining the Common Market.
The PM is under pressure to secure a deal to exempt the fishing industry from the transition deal after Britain leaves the European Union in March 2019.
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| Quote of the day |
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"A pick-and-mix approach for a non-member state is out of the question."
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Donald Tusk, president of the European Council
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Russian retaliation
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Theresa May has been urged by Nick Boles, the former minister, to retaliate over the Sergei Skripal case. "“I do not see how we can maintain diplomatic relations with a country that tries to murder people on British soil and puts the lives of British citizens at risk," he said.
The story still dominates the front pages: "Nerve agent used on Sergei Skripal leaves policeman critical," says The Times. "Russia 'could cripple' UK," says the Daily Mail. "Cop poisoned by nerve gas assassins" is the Mirror splash. "Policeman poisoned by Russian spy nerve agent," says the Telegraph. While the Express goes with "Corrie star Bill: my heartbreak."
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Ones to watch today
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- Amber Rudd, the home secretary, makes an urgent Commons statement updating MPs on the poisoned spy investigation. She told ITV's Good Morning Britain that the police had to be "absolutely meticulous" about collecting the evidence, "not responding to rumour but to fact" and "keeping a cool head". She also added: "Of course I can guarantee public safety."
- Energy drink consumption by children is to be investigated by the science and technology committee after it was found that 18 per cent of children aged three to ten drank them regularly.
- Andrea Leadsom, the Commons leader, sets out the business for next week. There is not a lot. With various bills held up by "consultation with colleagues" there is a two-day debate on Brexit. Oh good.
- One thing that will be voted on: Labour has blocked the government from slipping through cuts to free school meals and childcare without a Commons vote. The Mirror has the story here.
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Tea and charm
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John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, continues his tea charm offensive with a speech to the British Chambers of Commerce conference today. He may need an extra cuppa.
Adam Marshall, the BCC director general, comes out swinging in a piece for Red Box, condemning the “wrong-headed, breezy, facile” push for nationalisation from the “hard-left” and urging firms to speak out against it. He also takes a swipe at the "Brexit fantasy world inhabited by some on the hard right" and warns that Brexit has allowed Westminster and Whitehall to "ignore the rudderlessness of recent years, sucking up resource and attention to the detriment of a long-term vision for the future". Tin hats on.
Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, and Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, are also due to speak.
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Read the full story
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Phil yer boots
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Some good news for Philip Hammond: The public finances could be on track for a boost of up to £11 billion when the Office for Budget Responsibility updates its forecasts at the spring statement on Tuesday. A report by the Resolution Foundation think tank claims that things are looking much more upbeat since gloomy OBR forecasts in November.
Normally chancellors have to come up with shiny baubles to distract from the OBR numbers but this time Hammond is happy for them to take centre stage.
Nick Timothy, Hammond's new BFF, writes in The Daily Telegraph on how "the age of austerity can now end".
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Read the full story
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Councils in crisis
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The cash crisis faced by local government is laid bare by a damning report from the National Audit Office, revealing that one in ten councils faces running out of money in the next three years after having their central government funding cut in half since 2010.
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Read the full story
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Tweet of the day
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The Sketch
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Searching hard for a cause célèbre
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Patrick Kidd
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The Commons chamber was full of causes yesterday. As well as all those badges that MPs feel obliged to wear these days, we heard plugs for International Women’s Day, National Apprentice Week and Brain Tumour Awareness Month as well, of course, as Brexit Talks Eternity. “Who decides how much time a cause gets?” I wondered as I celebrated Pie and Pint Admiration Hour in my own way afterwards.
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Read the full sketch
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It's a woman's world
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I won't tell you it's International Women's Day because that would be mansplaining but the papers are full of stories on equality.
The government publishes details of new powers to tackle domestic abuse, including new rules on tagging. Read the story
Theresa May writes in The Guardian and The Sun on her new domestic violence bill. The Guardian reports that Labour will pledge today to fine employers who do not close their gender pay gaps.
Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, writes for The Independent: "As a proud feminist I'm unveiling plans to help women in London who live in fear."
In The Daily Telegraph there is a letter from 200 business leaders, MPs and academics, including Samantha Cameron, Mary Portas, Alexa Chung and Karren Brady calling on the government to boost female entrepreneurship in Britain.
Sophie Walker has been elected as the Leader of the Women’s Equality Party, winning 90.1 per cent of the vote in the first leadership election ballot of members and supporters.
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Labouring the point
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It's all kicking off in the People's Front of Judea. Christine Shawcroft, a senior Momentum official and a member of Labour’s national executive committee, has called for Labour to cut its links to trade unions.
She is backing Jon Lansman, the Corbyn-backing Momentum founder, to be general secretary. He is up against Jennie Formby, the Corbyn-backing Unite official. The excitement never ends.
Professor Tim Bale writes for HuffPost on the numbers that show why it's wrong to suggest that Labour should disaffiliate from the unions.
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Read the full story
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Facing the sack
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The Scottish parliament is facing calls to bring in new laws that would allow disgraced politicians to be removed from office after the SNP’s former childcare minister, Mark McDonald, refused to quit despite resigning from his party following an investigation into claims that he behaved inappropriately towards women.
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Read the full story
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Jail First
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Bad news for Donald Trump: he won't be able to retweet any racist nonsense from his old friends at Britain First for a while after the leader and deputy leader of the far-right group were jailed.
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Read the full story
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Around the world
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USA: President Trump and the EU exchanged warning shots yesterday as world markets braced themselves for a bruising trade war. Read the full story
IRELAND: The country is set to vote on the possibility of liberalising the state’s abortion laws for the first time this May after a Supreme Court judgment. Read the full story
SOUTH KOREA: Improving relations with North Korea have brought the peninsula to a decisive point, according President Moon of South Korea, although he said that it was too early to be optimistic about the prospects for peace. Read the full story
PAKISTAN: As an “untouchable” Hindu child in Pakistan, Krishna Kumari was used as slave labour and her prospects looked bleak. Now, at 39, she has been elected to the Pakistani senate in what is seen as a breakthrough in the conservative, mainly Muslim country. Read the full story
GERMANY: Germany’s anti-immigrant party has held talks with Steve Bannon, former chief strategist to President Trump, to help prepare a 24-hour newsroom to pump out its own version of events on social media. Read the full story
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Also in the news
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- LIVING LONGER: Health can last 30 years longer in well-off areas (The Times)
- FAKING IT: Young told to ‘fake mental health crisis’ to get care (The Times)
- PAYBACK TIME: Delayed rail passengers can claim for taxis and hotels (The Times)
- TELLING TAILS: ‘Pay farmers for not cutting off pig tails’ (The Times)
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| TMS |
| From the diary |
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By Patrick Kidd
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Paxo is still playing tough
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Laura Kuenssberg is sadly used to being heckled at public events but it is a bit rotten to have to put up with it from fellow broadcasters. The BBC’s political editor gave a lecture in Oxford on Tuesday night and afterwards the floor was opened up for questions. “Who’s your least favourite prime minister?” barked a grumpy old man at the back. It turned out to be Jeremy Paxman, who has nothing better to do these days. Kuenssberg started to explain about BBC impartiality rules but Paxo was having none of it. “Answer the bloody question,” he snapped. Kuenssberg saw him off, though, with the ideal hack’s reply. “Find me in the bar later — and buy me a drink— and I’ll tell you,” she said.
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Read more from the TMS diary
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What the papers say
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The Times
"Mohammed bin Salman . . . has arrived in London to seek British engagement in the modernisation of what will soon be his kingdom. It is, despite loud protests about the Saudi bombardment of Yemen, an offer that should be grasped." Read the full article
The Guardian
"Other governments are capable of calculating their own interests. They do not need Mrs May to advise them on that score. The missing element in her strategy is investment in the diplomacy that would have persuaded them that Britain is sincere in seeing its interests and those of the EU as truly aligned." Read the full article
Financial Times
"Selected divergence from EU rules, as opposed to a “race to the bottom”, could make Britain a more appealing place for non-EU clients to do business. The government should fight for a robust, mutually beneficial equivalence regime. But not at any cost." Read the full article
The Daily Telegraph
"As more evidence emerges, it is hard to look any further than the Kremlin, or the Russian state apparatus, given its track record in overseas assassinations." Read the full article
The Sun
"The EU’s response to Theresa May’s generous Brexit speech is just as negative and obstinate as we predicted. How much more time can we waste on this ridiculous dance?" Read the full article
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Agenda
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Today
- Theresa May hosts meeting with EU business leaders in Downing Street.
- She also hosts reception to mark International Women’s Day in Downing Street.
- Robin Walker, minister for exiting the European Union, chairs a meeting of the joint ministerial council on Brexit, with ministers from the devolved administrations.
- David Lammy, Labour MP, discusses diversity and inclusion in the legal profession at the Westminster Legal Policy Forum.
- Local authorities are struggling to survive financially, according to a report by the National Audit Office.
- Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, continues his visit to the UK.
- The election of a Jeremy Corbyn-led government would present an opportunity to "renew and reform" the EU, according to a report from the campaign group Another Europe is Possible.
- Ipsa publishes MPs’ expenses claims.
- 10am: Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, addresses the BCC annual conference. Also due to speak are: John McDonnell, shadow chancellor (12.10pm); Arlene Foster, DUP leader (12.30pm); Rebecca Long-Bailey, shadow business secretary (10.20am).
- Noon Sir Keir Starmer, shadow Brexit secretary, and Barry Gardiner, shadow international trade secretary, speak on Brexit and industrial strategy at a TUC conference.
- Noon Nicola Sturgeon, takes first minister’s questions in Holyrood.
House of Commons
- 9.30am Environment, food, rural affairs questions
- 10.10am Church commissioners, the House of Commons commission, the public accounts commission and the Speaker's committee on the Electoral Commission
- Andrea Leadsom, leader of the House of Commons, makes a statement on forthcoming Commons business.
- Debate on Vote 100 and International Women’s Day
- Adjournment debate on river authorities (David Warburton)
Westminster Hall
- 1.30pm Energy efficiency and the clean growth strategy (Antoinette Sandbach)
Select committees
- 10am Lords EU external affairs: Lord Ricketts, former British ambassador to France on Brexit: common security and defence policy missions.
House of Lords
- 11am Oral questions on domestic violence; employment protections for women after Brexit; undersea cables, and Russian threat to foreign nationals in the UK.
- Finance Bill, second reading (Lord Bates)
- Debate on International Women’s Day (Baroness Williams of Trafford)
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@MattChorley
