Red Box - Wednesday May 29 2019

PLUS: Bercow clings on, obviously

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Wednesday May 29 2019

By Esther Webber

Good morning,

Bloomberg reported yesterday that officials close to Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, believe she is reconsidering her appointed departure date because her prospective successor "is not up to the job".

For the sake of the 4 per cent of Tory MPs who have so far stated their wish to replace Theresa May, let's just hope the current resident of No 10 doesn't get any ideas.

Esther Webber

Red Box reporter

@estwebber

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The briefing

Jeremy Hunt appears to be losing ground in the leadership race as a result of not being able to make up his mind as to whether no-deal would be absolutely fine or disastrous - with Michael Gove the main beneficiary of his faltering. Hunt is on Peston tonight, so maybe he can clarify his views.

In news that will shock literally no one, John Bercow has told The Guardian he won't be stepping down this summer as expected but hanging around while Brexit is sorted out. So, indefinitely, then.

James Cleverly, the Brexit minister, becomes the 11th Tory MP to put himself forward for leader, saying no deal would not be his preference.

Lord Heseltine, the former deputy PM and provider of viral content for the Remain-inclined, delivers a speech in Westminster today to mark his appointment as the new president of the European Movement.

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, announces a new report to be produced by Professor Dame Sally Davies, the chief medical officer for England, on measures to meet childhood obesity targets. His previous suggestions for tackling obesity include solving Brexit, as it would reduce stress-eating.

Today’s trivia question: Which MEP elected last week was also one of the first 81 directly elected UK MEPs in 1979? Answer at the bottom of today's email.

Labour's Spartacus moment

Yesterday afternoon in the newsroom I heard a colleague remark soberly on the phone to someone: "People are turning away from Jeremy." As it happens, he was talking about Hunt but I assumed it was the other Jeremy because everyone else was at it on a truly dire day for Labour.

Tuesday had all the hallmarks of the first day back after a bank holiday - you oversleep, miss your train, get to the office to discover you've got toothpaste in your hair - except the misfortunes befalling Labour are of course far more serious.

The day began bright and early with Diane Abbott on the Today programme. Fresh from admitting that Labour had not been clear enough on its Brexit policy after last week's disastrous performance at the European elections, she informed listeners the party was "foregrounding" support for a second referendum. I had to text someone in the party to ask what she meant but I am still not sure I understand.

Mid-morning we learnt the grim news that the Equalities and Human Rights Commission will investigate Labour for its handling of antisemitism allegations after being referred by the Jewish Labour Movement (JLM).

Not long after it emerged that Alastair Campbell, the former communications chief synonymous with Labour's time in power under Blair, had been expelled from the party for revealing that he did not lend his vote to Labour last week.

In Red Box today Mike Katz, the JLM chairman, draws a link between the two, writing: "Many people wondered why the party that never got around to expelling Ken Livingstone took just a matter of days to chuck out Alastair Campbell."

Others were quick to point out that Campbell could not have expected any other outcome: support for another party triggers automatic expulsion under Labour rules, whereas investigation for alleged racism does not. (Except there is some disagreement over whether Campbell's actions meet this threshhold.)

Last night the former cabinet minister Clare Short told BBC Newsnight: "If you’re in the Brownies and you say I don’t think people should join the Brownies, you’ll probably be thrown out of the Brownies." If that's true, the Brownies certainly seems to have taken on a more ideological hue since I was a child.

But arguing over the rule book does nothing to address the anger which some members justifiably feel at the way the party's disciplinary procedures work.

Another problem for Labour is that Campbell took his vote elsewhere in protest at a policy position which senior shadow cabinet ministers have since admitted is not the right one - and he's not the only one to have done so. Bob Ainsworth, the former defence secretary, put his head above the parapet to inform the BBC he voted Green, while Charles Clarke, the former home secretary, said he had voted Lib Dem.

The ex-minister Fiona Mactaggart asked if it was time for everyone to declare "I am Spartacus" in solidarity. Kate Hoey, who has openly defended the Brexit Party, has been conspicuous by her silence.

And these are just identifiable big names - the number of ordinary members who did not vote Labour is probably much higher. Is the party going to expel everyone who makes these kinds of statements? Luckily, they may not need to.

Just in case the bad news had been in danger of abating, the fallout from Labour's especially dismal showing in Scotland last Thursday began to kick in. First, the staunch Corbynite Neil Findlay resigned from the shadow front bench over "eternal internal infighting" (ie people being nasty about his boss). Then another Labour MSP, Daniel Johnson, quit his justice spokesperson post over the party's equivocal support for Remain. At this rate we may need to repurpose the panda-based slurs that used to be aimed at the Tories in Scotland.

Amid this enormous bin fire, I have some sympathy for the Labour leadership - on the Brexit point at least. Their dilemma is handily exemplified by two pieces in Red Box today. James Frith, the Labour MP for Bury North, argues that Leave voters have already deserted Labour for the Brexit Party and the time is right to embrace Remain. Dave Ward, general secretary of the Communication Workers Union, says the opposite: if it abandons Leave-voting, working-class communities it is turning its back on those it most needs to help.

The momentum seems to be with the second referendum side right now, but even if it could boost their immediate electoral fortunes it is unlikely to be much comfort to those who see it as a betrayal of the party's founding principles. I'll let you know if there's anyone left in the party by the end of the week to fight over it.

RED BOX: COMMENT

Becoming a Remain party would drive Labour away from the people who need it most

Dave Ward – Communication Workers Union

Committing to a people's vote might be the only way to avert a no-deal Brexit

James Frith – Labour MP

Labour must be investigated before it can call itself an anti-racist party

Mike Katz – Jewish Labour Movement

In yesterday's poll, 42 per cent of you preferred Michael Gove for leader, followed by Boris Johnson on 14 per cent and Jeremy Hunt on 13 per cent.

Have your say

Yesterday Matt asked what would happen in the event of no-deal.

Mark Simpson predicted: "Not much. There would be some short-term hiccups and some minor annoyances (eg longer immigration queues at EU destinations) for a while. In the medium term, once the EU got over its pique, we could negotiate sensible outcomes."

Alison Neave said: "There would be no more UK either as Scotland would leave the UK."

David Altaner said: "If we crashed out with no-deal, England would become Donald Trump's 51st state."

Shamir Patel said: "Farage finds himself obsolete and with his usual consistency becomes a Remainer (he was one of them all the time, honest), decrying those pesky Brexit extremists for their folly. He runs (again) for parliament in the Maidenhead by-election - he loses his deposit but finds solace at the Maidenhead Beer Festival."

TODAY: Who would make a good Tory leader who hasn't entered the race so far? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best tomorrow.

The best comment

There's no avoiding an election or a second vote

Daniel Finkelstein – The Times

Tiananmen Square showed regime's true nature

Roger Boyes – The Times

Students need better teaching, not lower fees

Alice Thomson – The Times

The refreshing ridiculousness of Rory Stewart

Alex Massie - Spectator

Our peculiar urge to describe Brexit as mental illness

Anoosh Chakelian - New Statesman

The cartoon

Today's cartoon from The Times is by Peter Brookes.

Need to know

TV DRAMA: The Conservative leadership contenders will face a gruelling series of televised interrogations from the country’s leading political interviewers under plans announced last night. (The Times)

NO SWEAT: Rory Stewart has dismissed Jeremy Hunt’s Brexit policy as nonsensical after his Tory leadership rival refused to rule out no-deal despite admitting it was “political suicide”. (The Times)

RACE TO THE TOP: Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron clashed yesterday over who should get the European Commission’s top job, with Mrs Merkel backing Manfred Weber to replace Jean-Claude Juncker as commission president when his term ends in November. (The Times)

WAB GOODBYE: Theresa May has given up on bringing her Brexit withdrawal bill back before MPs in the weeks she has remaining as prime minister. (The Times)

Leadershipwatch

RUNNING

James Cleverly, the Brexit minister and former deputy party chairman, enters the race with a promise to offer the Conservative Party "a complete refresh". He gets Brownie points (if Clare Short will allow) for announcing this via his local paper. The big question for him and fellow graduate of the London Assembly Kit Malthouse is whether they can be induced to attack their former boss, Boris Johnson, or whether they ultimately just want a plum job in his cabinet. Odds on Cleverly are currently 50/1.

Rory Stewart (16/1) was the talk of the (Westminster) town yesterday for his novel approach to campaigning, which so far consists of popping up in random parts of the UK and asking people to come and chat to him. Spoilsports have pointed out that his verve is not exactly matched by parliamentary support but it's definitely producing all the best jokes so far.

Dominic Raab (5/1) was on the receiving end of Twitter's outright mockery yesterday as he released a campaign video which begins with him performing a completely bizarre turn-to-camera. He's unlikely to be too upset - it's got everyone talking, and the rest of the film is not bad.

Matt Hancock (33/1) puts himself firmly in the running for best quote of the race as he set out his stall in an interview with the FT. Pitching himself as the pro-business candidate, he took aim at the man to beat, Boris Johnson, and told the paper: "F**k f**k business." In so doing, he takes on Jeremy Hunt (12/1) on the "I used to run a business" turf.

Michael Gove (4/1) may be less worried about securing column inches as his wife, Sarah Vine, uses her Daily Mail column to make the case for the environment secretary - by, er, warning us that he can't load the dishwasher and failed his driving test six times. She says his commitment to Brexit should recommend him.

Sajid Javid (25/1), meanwhile, is taking a rather unorthodox approach by talking about what he would actually do as prime minister, promising in The Sun that he would recruit an extra 20,000 police officers. The admission that the police are under-staffed by a sitting home secretary, contradicting statements by the sitting home secretary, is of course par for the course these days.

Esther McVey (50/1) puts herself out there as tougher than the rest, framing herself as the no-deal candidate with a column in The Telegraph. She warns that the only "political suicide" would be not leaving with a clean break.

Also running: Boris Johnson (6/4), Andrea Leadsom (12/1) and Kit Malthouse (100/1).

NOT YET DECLARED

Priti Patel, the former international development secretary, is keeping ominously quiet at the moment.

Jesse Norman, the Treasury minister, is still taking soundings after teasing us with an inconclusive 33-tweet thread.

Penny Mordaunt, Mark Harper, Sir Graham Brady and Steve Baker are all still lurking in the wings.

NOT RUNNING

Michael Fabricant, the Lichfield MP, told his Twitter followers: "I am about to declare that following the encouragement of colleagues and donors, I am one of the select few Conservative MPs who will NOT be standing for the leadership of our Party."

Paul Masterton, the East Renfrewshire MP, announced: "I will vote for whoever gets furthest round the Ninja Warrior course."

Tweet of the day

Rory Stewart is in your kitchen for the next hour if you want to chat about Brexit

@Gilofthepeople

RED BOX: COMMENT

We must do more to help women into the rail industry

Nusrat Ghani – Transport minister

Technology partnerships are essential for improving healthcare in the NHS

Sir John Bell – Life Sciences Champion

Now read this

She’s the sleek-haired Brussels expert who can expound on anything from trade deals to Danish porn, although her husband has asked her to stop talking about her specialist subject — and our national obsession — at home. The BBC’s Europe editor Katya Adler is known as the Kim Kardashian of Brexit, in part for her carefully contoured make-up and penchant for an all-white ensemble, but mainly because of her sheer ubiquity across the airwaves.

In years gone by, Adler would have been just another of the corporation’s many officers in the field, but in the age of 11th-hour negotiations and 24-hour news cycles she has become primetime telly’s breakout star, clocking up more time on screen than a Strictly Come Dancing winner. She spoke to Times2's Harriet Walker.

Read the full story

TMS

From the diary

By Jack Blackburn

Game of dethrones

With his favourite TV show having finished, Michael Gove has decided to keep it going by acting out Game of Thrones in real life. The environment secretary loved the fantasy show because of the way it would suddenly wipe out established characters in feasts of treacherous backstabbing. In an interview with the journalist Nick Robinson, he said: “It makes it more like real life.” This put Gove on thin ice and the BBC man replied: “You mean like how one minute you’re friends with someone, and the next they’re running the Leave campaign?”