|
| Thursday November 28 2019 |
|
|
|
By Matt Chorley
|
|
Good morning,
|
There is now "just" two weeks to go until polling day, and it is getting interesting.
Jeremy Corbyn has had a pretty terrible week, but is trying to reboot his campaign with an aggressive defence of the NHS, while Boris Johnson goes into hiding. Anything, as they say, could happen.
As we gear up for the final push, I am having a long weekend in Copenhagen, so Esther Webber will be with you tomorrow.
Provided I don't seek asylum in Denmark I will be back on Monday, just in time for Donald Trump's arrival...
- If you haven't already booked for This. Is. Not. A. Normal. Quiz. on Monday night, there are only a couple of tables left, so book today.
|
|
|
|
Is this the election result?
|
|
As YouGov publishes its MRP poll forecasting a Tory majority, Matt Chorley speaks to pollster Chris Curtis about what it does, and doesn't, mean.
LISTEN
|
|
The briefing
|
- The big election talking point is the YouGov MRP polling model, published by The Times last night, suggesting a Conservative majority of 68. See all the numbers, maps and what might happen in your seat here
- Boris Johnson campaigns in Devon, including a visit to a school.
- Jeremy Corbyn goes green, announcing a plan to plant 2 billion trees by 2040. The BBC's Chris Mason has crunched the numbers to work out that this means planting roughly 100 million trees a year, or 8.3 million a month, or 2 million a week, or 300,000 a day, or 12,400 an hour, every hour, 24 hours a day. Which means planting 200 trees every minute, around the clock, for 20 years.
- Jo Swinson uses a speech in London to accuse Johnson of repeatedly telling lies and dragging the office of prime minister "through the mud".
- Barry Gardiner, Labour’s shadow international trade secretary, really calmed the whole Labour antisemitism thing this morning, telling ITV’s Good Morning Britain: “One apology doesn’t seem to be enough for people.”
- Channel 4 hosts a TV debate on climate change, though both Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are giving it a miss.
- Joe Biden’s campaign to become US president suffered a blow with the claim that Barack Obama told a rival for the Democratic nomination that the former vice-president “really doesn’t have it”.
- On this day 100 years ago, Nancy Astor was announced as the winner of the Plymouth Sutton by-election. On December 1, 1919 the viscountess became the first female MP to take a seat in the House of Commons.
- Esther Webber's trivia question: At which general election were candidates first allowed to state their political party or other short description on the ballot paper? Answer at the bottom of today's email.
|
|
Party like it’s 2005
|
|
I first started covering politics in 2005. I was 12 at the time. Rude. Back in 2005 Tony Blair had just won his third landslide election victory and for about a year the biggest story in British politics was that David Cameron didn't have a tie on.
Looking back at what was in the news this week 14 years ago gives you a flavour: Gordon Brown preparing to put new limits on public spending, Tessa Jowell having her eye on becoming foreign secretary, a low-level row about new nuclear power plants. Oh for the days of such steadiness.
Could this be where we are heading? Let's park the politics for a moment but one of the most striking things about the YouGov MRP polling model, published by The Times overnight, is what it could mean in terms of returning to a period of stable, majority government.
It projects that were an election held now, Boris Johnson’s Conservatives would gain more than 50 seats to have a majority of 68.
This would be three more than Blair in 2005, and significantly more than John Major's 21 in 1992 or David Cameron’s 11 in 2015.
In fact it would be the biggest Tory majority since Margaret Thatcher's majority of 101 in 1987. With Labour forecast to slump to just 211 – worse than Ed Miliband in 2015, worse than Gordon Brown in 2010, it would be their worst result since Michael Foot's 209 MPs in 1983.
A prime minister who didn’t wake up in the morning and wonder if they could do anything. A prime minister whose ability to do anything lay not in the hands of Mark Francois or Dominic Grieve. It would be bad news for BBC Parliament, who might struggle to generate public interest in watching Commons votes which are a foregone conclusion.
Of all the causes for the political turbulence in the past decade, which has delivered us four elections, three referendums, three prime ministers, three Labour leaders, countless reshuffles, rebellions and resignations, the inability of any one party to command a solid majority in the Commons has got to be a key factor.
A whole generation has not seen what it is like when the government quietly gets on with its business.
So will Johnson actually get such a majority? The YouGov multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model – which uses polling of 100,000 over the past week to model how different types of people in different types of seats might vote – suggests so.
Remember that this was the model which correctly predicted a hung parliament in 2017, when other standard voting intention polls, including those by YouGov, were showing a strong Tory lead.
It shows that the Tories are on course to break through the "red wall" in the Midlands and north of England, making gains in precisely the Leave-voting Labour seats that the Tories have been coveting. Bolsover, home to Dennis Skinner, turns blue on these numbers. So do Don Valley, Wakefield and West Bromwich East, the seat vacated by the outgoing Labour deputy leader Tom Watson which was last Tory in 1931.
The big concern of Conservative strategists had been that chasing those Brexit-backing constituencies might mean losing Remain-voting seats out the other side. The decision by the Brexit Party to pull out of 317 Tory-held seats has put paid to that.
If this were to be the final result it would be a devastating and convincing rejection of Jeremy Corbyn and his brand of socialism. He has bet the house, the garden and the allotment on his unapologetically radical and expensive pitch to the nation.
Defeat on this scale would prompt dramatic soul-searching about why and how the party will have been locked out of power for almost 20 years. It would raise serious questions about whether anyone else, literally anyone else, leading Labour could have beaten this utterly beatable Tory party.
No wonder the BBC is reporting that the Labour Party is to “re-shape their general election campaign strategy - particularly in Leave-voting areas - to try to turn around a stubborn Conservative opinion poll lead”.
The SNP make decent gains in Scotland, up eight seats to 43. It is worth remembering that four and a half years ago they had just six seats.
The Lib Dems, who dreamt of making sweeping gains in London, commuter-belt areas and university towns, are forecast to make a net gain of just one seat. High-profile defectors like Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna and Sam Gyimah are all forecast to lose, although allies of Berger believe the strong Jewish vote in Finchley and Golders Green could yet deliver it for her.
As for the rash of independents, like Dominic Grieve, David Gauke, Frank Field and Anna Soubry: nothing. Only Sir Lindsay Hoyle survives as an independent, and that's because as Speaker he is not challenged by the main parties.
Behind the headline figures there is a an awful lot of churn. There are 44 seats which go from Labour to Conservative. Three go from Conservative to Lib Dem while two go the other way. The Lib Dems take one seat from Labour but lose one to the SNP. The SNP gain five from Labour and two from the Conservatives.
It is worth pointing out that the projected margins of victory are below 5 per cent in at least 30 seats predicted to be Conservative. It doesn't take much of a swing away from the Tories to slash this majority. It means the estimates range from 328-385 for the Tories; 187-238 for Labour; 9-20 for the Lib Dems and 29-54 for the SNP. (This is a Great Britain-only poll, so Northern Ireland's 18 seats are not included.)
It is also worth pointing out that this is based on asking people how they would vote now. There are still two weeks left in this campaign. (The MRP in 2017 came a week before polling day.)
It is possible that something could change the narrative: Johnson’s refusal to be interviewed by Andrew Neil could knock him like May’s refusal to do TV debates. Or he could appear and get shredded like Corbyn did.
Corbyn’s warnings about the NHS being sold off lack evidence but make up for it in passion and political vibrancy and could take off.
And the very MRP itself could affect how people vote. As Francis Elliott writes in The Times, the last thing the Tories want is talk of a big majority.
With everyone diverted by Christmas and the cold weather, Tory voters (and those who think Johnson is the least-worst option but don't actually want to dirty their hands to vote for him) might give this election a miss.
It could also have the effect of galvanising Labour and Lib Dem voters into action.
No wonder Dominic Cummings used the day of the MRP's release to post one of his famous blogs (mercifully this one was only 2,000 words) insisting it was all still to play for.
“You will see many polls in the coming days,” he writes. "Some will say Boris will win. Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.”
These are not the musings of Westminster's favourite genius. This is a campaign-sanctioned press release from a strategist who knows the risks of talk of a big majority this far out from polling day.
But if this comes to pass, and with a fortnight to go it is a big if, there is the strange possibility of a return to politics being if not quite boring, certainly more stable than anything we have seen for years.
|
|
Key election battlgrounds
|
|
|
With perfect timing, just as the YouGov model suggests that Labour could lose key Midlands seats, Damian Whitworth reports on how unrest is stirring in the den of Dennis Skinner, the Beast of Bolsover.
|
Read the full story
|
|
Red Box countdown
|
|
|
14 days to go
|
Pull the other one
This election is enough to drive you to drink. Especially if you’re the PM, apparently. Boris Johnson had given a cast-iron, do or die, no ifs, no buts guarantee to give up alcohol until Brexit was done. But then he drank whisky in Scotland and beer in Wolverhampton. And then yesterday he was in Cornwall where he tried to pull a pint of Rattler cider and then couldn’t resist trying it. “This is not breaking my vow — I’m not allowed to drink until we get Brexit done but I’m going to have one small sip.”
Flaky politician
If he isn’t drinking, he is eating. The prime minister faced a grilling during a visit to the Eastern Daily Press in Norwich, including being asked if he had ever had a Greggs. “How many times have I ever not had a Greggs?! Unless I specifically tell you otherwise, I am made of Greggs.”
Dig for victory
Labour takes antisemitism very seriously, just don’t ask any questions about it. ITV’s Libby Wiener turned up at Jeremy Corbyn’s “NHS for sale” event and asked if the Labour leader wanted to apologise for the “antisemitic incidents in the party that have happened on your watch”. Barry Gardiner, the shadow international trade secretary and Corbyn’s sidekick/carer for the day, shot back: “Do you have a question about the issue that we’re actually discussing today or was that just an opportune moment to get a dig in about something else?”
Where am I?
“Only the Scottish National Party can beat the Tories here in Dunbartonshire,” declared John Nicolson in a hustings to be the MP for er . . . Ochil & South Perthshire. East Dunbartonshire was the seat he held for two years until he was beaten by Jo Swinson in 2017.
Marital strife
One’s a Tory, the other’s a "bourgeois leftist". They live in one of the tightest marginals. Andrew Watts and Tanya Gold on the chasm in their marriage.
|
|
Ballot box
|
PRICE HIKE: A senior British trade negotiator raised concerns that the NHS might have to pay more for drugs under US plans for a post-Brexit trade deal, leaked documents released by Jeremy Corbyn show. (The Times)
MIGRANT WORKERS: Boris Johnson will need tens of thousands of care workers from abroad to look after older Britons if he is to honour his pledge to fix social care, analysis has found. (The Times)
CLEANING UP: Nicola Sturgeon has told voters repulsed by Labour’s antisemitism crisis that SNP MPs with the “right values” would help to cleanse the party after installing Jeremy Corbyn as prime minister. (The Times)
GREEN FEARS: Boris Johnson cannot be trusted to address the climate crisis, London Mayor Sadiq Khan has warned. (The Independent)
MONEY TALKS: Boris Johnson says he told predecessor David Cameron his spending cuts were wrong as he sought to mark himself out as a very different type of Tory leader last night. (The Sun)
TORY SUSPENDED: The Scottish Conservatives have suspended a General Election candidate over alleged use of "anti-Muslim language". (Daily Mail)
|
|
|
I asked you who won the contest between Andrew Neil and Jeremy Corbyn. Three per cent said the Labour leader. Full result here
|
|
Have your say
|
Yesterday I asked what question Andrew Neil should put to Boris Johnson.
Stephen Waters said: "Only question to ask: 'Will you apologise for perceived or real anti-Islamic comments?' and BJ would be mad if he doesn’t give a straightforward Yes in answer."
Christopher Holmwood said: "Is it common sense not to use Jacob Rees- Mogg on your campaign trail?"
Elsewhere, a theme emerged.
David Germaney said: "Have you ever lied?"
John Maton said: Do you have a problem telling the truth?
Peter Motcombe said: "Do you promise to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth?"
Ian Orlebar said: "Having been fired twice as a journalist for fabricating the facts in your copy, do you seriously expect any informed member of the electorate to believe a word you say?"
Kevin Alldred said: "You say truth is important. Are you able to remember any specific instance when you actually told the truth?"
TODAY: What would be the worst outcome of the election? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best tomorrow.
|
|
The cartoon
|
|
|
Today's cartoon from The Times by Peter Brookes
|
|
Now read this
|
|
|
Clive James and Sir Jonathan Miller
|
Occasionally it falls to Eric Idle to describe the shock of learning that the cultural landscape has lost two of its most imposing figures. “Savage news,” the former Monty Python star wrote. “To lose one friend is bad but to lose two reeks of carelessness. The beloved hilarious genius Jonathan Miller . . . and dear Clive James, my pal at Cambridge.”
Sir Jonathan Miller obituary
Jonathan Miller contributed his many talents to society with generosity, intensity, humour and pain. One of the most intelligent people of his generation, he came to public attention first as a comedian, then as a television presenter and theatre and opera director, with work as a writer, broadcaster, lecturer and art historian on the side. To observers, he seemed to excel at anything he tried. Yet the range and level of his abilities stirred envy as well as admiration, and criticism hurt him more than his detractors might have realised. Read more
Clive James obituary
Clive James was, by turns, a literary essayist, folk-music lyricist, critic, novelist, entertainer, memoirist, translator and poet. In his distinctive tone of voice, visible in his prose and poetry and audible in his TV scripts, James straddled the divided worlds of popular entertainment and literary criticism, insisting all the while that there was no contradiction between the two. Read more
|
|
The agenda
|
Today
- 10.30am Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, Chuka Umunna, the Lib Dem foreign affairs spokesman, and Stephen Gethins, the SNP foreign affairs spokesman, take part in a debate hosted by Chatham House.
- 11am Jeremy Corbyn announcement sets out the party's environmental policies in Southampton.
- Midday Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, faces her weekly round of questions from MSPs.
- 12.30pm Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, Nia Griffith, the shadow defence secretary, and Baroness Smith, the Lib Dem defence spokeswoman, take part in a debate hosted by RUSI.
- 7pm Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon, Jo Swinson, Sian Berry, co-leader of the Green Party, and Adam Price, the Plaid Cymru leader, take part in a climate change debate hosted by Channel 4.
- 7pm The Labour candidate Yvette Cooper discusses inspiring speeches made by women that feature in her new book at an event in Westminster.
House of Commons & House of Lords
- Parliament resumes on December 17.
|
|
Today's trivia answer
|
Esther Webber's trivia question: At which general election were candidates first allowed to state their political party or other short description on the ballot paper?
Answer: 1970, following the Representation of the People’s Act 1969, which also lowered the voting age to 18.
Arguing for the change in 1968 Jim Callaghan, then the home secretary, told the Commons: "I had the mortifying experience of going into a school in my constituency last week—admittedly, the children were only six years old and I use that as an excuse — where the teacher said, 'You know who that is?' and a hand shot up and someone said, 'Mr. Wilson'. I am glad to say that the others in the class corrected him, and they were only six years of age, but this is an indication that even at that delicate age it is the name of the leader which is impressed on people's memories as much as anything else."
Thanks to Peter Moore for that one. Send your trivia to redbox@thetimes.co.uk
|
| |
|
This email is from a member of the News UK group. News Corp UK & Ireland Limited, with its registered office at 1 London Bridge Street, London, SE1 9GF, United Kingdom is the holding company for the News UK Group and is registered in England No. 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
To see our privacy policy, click
here.
|
|
|
@MattChorley
