LOCAL ELECTION SPECIAL
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The Times and Sunday Times
Thursday April 15 2021
Red Box
Mhari Aurora
By Mhari Aurora
Good afternoon,
It's been a crazy week.

The wall-to-wall coverage hasn't stopped and it's all anyone can talk about. That's right: it's the Liberal Democrats' local election campaign.

For this week's newsletter I've been digging into the polls to see how Ed Davey's troops are doing and where they’ll be looking to win on May 6.

John Boothman has done some excellent analysis on the battle for power in Scotland and Dave Hill has insight into the London mayoral election - namely why there are so many of them.

As I said last week, do get in touch on redbox@thetimes.co.uk and let me know what you think and whether there’s anything you would like to see covered.
Mhari Aurora
Red Box Reporter
Twitter icon @MhariAurora
 
THE VIEW FROM ENGLAND
Mhari Aurora
Liberal Demographics
Mhari Aurora – Red Box Reporter

So, May 6. Super Thursday, as people insist on calling it. It will be Sir Ed Davey’s first big test since he replaced Jo Swinson as Lib Dem leader in August.

The local elections are a chance for the party to claw back some influence, but according to YouGov only 8 per cent of voters would vote for them, level with the Greens.

At present the party has just over two and a half thousand councillors. It leads or has deputy leadership of 49 councils across England and Wales, but Davey will be anticipating progress against Labour in Hull and against the Conservatives in Sussex and Wiltshire, as well as holding on to seats in Cambridgeshire and Hertfordshire.

While Davey has done his best to draw a line under his predecessor's campaigning against Brexit, the elections will offer the first signs of whether voters still hold it against them.

Their stance against vaccine passports could also land them in hot water. Six in ten voters approve of the idea, YouGov found, and the rest are unlikely be concentrated in Lib Dem target seats.

Policing Britain's escape from the pandemic puts extra onus on the races for local police and crime commissioners, which the Lib Dems are fighting across the board for the first time.

PCCs are the bridge between local people and the police force, holding officers to account and hiring and firing chief constables.

The vote for PCCs and metro mayors alike uses the supplementary vote system, meaning voters will need to express a first and second preference. Turnout will give central government an indication of the public’s interest in these roles.

One race to watch is Liverpool's city mayoral election, where the Lib Dem candidate, Richard Kemp, is hoping to pull off what would be a huge upset in ordinary times.

There is a maelstrom of controversy surrounding the Labour-led council and its former leader Joe Anderson, giving the Lib Dems a rare opportunity to mop up council seats and perhaps the top prize.

As an investigation into alleged corruption on the council has led to Tory commissioners being sent to oversee the disgraced local government machine, Liverpudlian confidence in their leadership has been heavily damaged.

Polling for the Liverpool Echo last month revealed that 69 per cent of locals intended to change their vote on May 6.

It's not yet clear whether Kemp, the city's opposition leader, will win out over the independent Stephen Yip, endorsed by anti-sleaze campaigner Martin Bell.

Either way it looks like the people of Liverpool may not want to hold Labour’s hand this time.

Britain's weirdest election
Now for the serious stuff. A by-election triggered by the resignation of the Lib Dem Patricia Bamford is hotting up over in Kingston.

Her son, Charles Bamford, is running for her seat... but for the Labour Party.

So, who’s running for the Lib Dems? It's Andrew MacKinlay, the former Labour MP for Thurrock. Obviously. It's like something from a Marx Brothers sketch.

In the 2018 election three Labour candidates managed to scrape 3 per cent of the vote each, so Mrs Bamford is unlikely to pass her seat down a generation.

And if that wasn’t enough, another party is intending on splitting their votes 13 ways: the Monster Raving Loony Party has entered 13 candidates for the seat.
 
THE VIEW FROM EDINBURGH
John Boothman
Scotland is already deciding
John Boothman – Sunday Times Scotland

This Scottish election is the most unusual in our lifetimes. It is also the most difficult to read.

The data and polls reveal much, but something is missing. Without doorstep canvassing, prohibited by the virus until now, it's been impossible to catch the mood and identify narratives that resonate with voters.

Most politicians agree that ground knowledge is in short supply and they are frustrated at the restrictions — phone banks, Facebook and direct mail are inadequate substitutes for face-to-face contact.

Only leafleting has been permitted, limiting encounters to shouty dialogues in facemasks, and mostly with enthusiastic supporters.

Candidates speak of lonely householders seeking solace in the politicians they meet, often in overlong conversations. With three weeks to go, the parties are hoping they were worth it.

Covid has made this a "vote when you choose" election and polling is getting under way as postal ballots start popping through letterboxes.

There are a million postal votes, the highest number ever, account for 23.8 per cent of the electorate, up from 17.7 per cent in 2016.

Last time over three quarters of those registered for a postal vote used it, in an election whose overall turnout was 56 per cent. If that is repeated about a third of all votes cast will arrive by mail.

The likely beneficiaries are the most organised parties — that’s the SNP, with its 100,000 members, and the Tories, who know how to bring their vote out.

Differential turnout may also be important - in the 2017 general election the SNP shipped half a million votes, not because they lost them to others but because previously identified supporters did not turn out.

There have been two important bellwethers this week. Firstly Nicola Sturgeon added to her reputation for coronavirus competence by accelerating lockdown easing. Her stewardship of the crisis is at the heart of her projected electoral success.

Secondly there was a second televised debate. The SNP leader seemed uncharacteristically subdued, a sign that she doesn’t want to frighten the horses and that an absolute majority is within her grasp.

If she fails to reach that target, it will not be by much.

Well behind her, the Tories and Labour are battling it out for second place. Labour’s Anas Sarwar has punched above his party’s weight but transferring personal ratings into votes is a tough ask.

His message, that the next parliament should be a Covid recovery parliament, has struck a chord, but poor party organisation is a millstone. The Tories have a well targeted anti-independence message designed to motivate their core vote but approval scores for their leader trail well behind.

Lots of attention has been given to Alex Salmond and Alba, but the Greens have not received the attention they deserve. If the polls are right they could nearly double their representation to 11 MSPs.

The Greens are already angling for a pro-independence coalition with the SNP in the year that COP26 comes to Glasgow. Watch this space.

Bookmark our Scotland poll tracker to keep up with the twists and turns in the constituency vote between now and election day.
THE VIEW FROM LONDON
Dave Hill
So many candidates, so little time
Dave Hill – Editor, OnLondon

When New Labour created the London mayoralty there were hopes that non-politicians of vision and authority might run for the directly elected post – dynamic business leaders, charismatic innovators and so on.

The array of pranksters, egotists and single-issue champions on the ballot this year is not what they had in mind.

There are a record 20 people seeking London's vote this year. Few will see their £10,000 deposits again, so why bother? The main reason is to get publicity. Secondary motivations include publicity, publicity and, of course, publicity.

Perhaps the year-long succession of polls showing Labour’s Sadiq Khan cruising towards a second term helps to explain why so many think they might capture people's attention.

The field for this year’s race, the sixth, includes a glut of culture, “freedom” and “post-truth” warriors. They’re largely fishing in the same small pond; in 2016, with the EU referendum looming, Ukip’s mayoral hopeful finished fifth with 3.6 per cent of first-preference votes.

He still lost his deposit, but was one of a pair of Kippers to win seats on the 25-strong London Assembly scrutiny body through the proportional representation system.

His erstwhile colleague, David Kurten, is running for mayor this time as leader of the Heritage Party. It might become history soon, given the competition for the same niche market: the pin-striped stockbroker turned YouTube star Brian Rose; the sometime actor Laurence Fox; this year’s Ukip model Peter Gammons, a roving Christian evangelical act whose surname has excited widespread mirth; and, to some degree, the anti-lockdown protester Piers Corbyn.

Rose’s campaign is quite ubiquitous: early leafleting, an ad blitz, a battle bus. Fox draws mainstream media attention but is also the target of a young YouTuber named Max Fosh, whose stated aim is to finish above him.

Yet another YouTuber, Niko Omilana, is in the hat too. So are the Croydonian “visionary entrepreneur” Farah London, who has produced a full manifesto, Richard Hewison of Rejoin EU and, as the nation now expects, the enigmatic Count Binface.

The one to watch in the lower placings could be the Women’s Equality Party’s very able Mandu Reid. Given the likely splintering of the withered Ukip vote, a repeat of the WEP's 2016 showing might see her take fifth.

It's enough to make you wonder if a true independent can win. Remember Ken Livingstone? He did it in the 2000s, having forsaken Labour to go it alone. Many think him the best London mayor there has been so far.

THE BEST ELECTION COMMENT
John Kampfner
Alex Salmond has become a Kremlin stooge
John Kampfner – commentator
Ian Murray
SNP cronyism is next Greensill scandal
Ian Murray – Shadow Scotland secretary
Alex Massie
PM must resist this very English unionism
Alex Massie – The Times
Magnus Linklater
Scottish leader debate: weak-point roulette leaves no clear winner
Magnus Linklater – The Times
James Forsyth
Why Boris Johnson won't follow Sadiq Khan on cannabis
James Forsyth – The Spectator
Sonia Khan
Starmer should beware a hasty May reshuffle
Sonia Khan – Former Treasury adviser
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