This Scottish election is the most unusual in our lifetimes. It is also the most difficult to read. The data and polls reveal much, but something is missing. Without doorstep canvassing, prohibited by the virus until now, it's been impossible to catch the mood and identify narratives that resonate with voters. Most politicians agree that ground knowledge is in short supply and they are frustrated at the restrictions — phone banks, Facebook and direct mail are inadequate substitutes for face-to-face contact. Only leafleting has been permitted, limiting encounters to shouty dialogues in facemasks, and mostly with enthusiastic supporters. Candidates speak of lonely householders seeking solace in the politicians they meet, often in overlong conversations. With three weeks to go, the parties are hoping they were worth it. Covid has made this a "vote when you choose" election and polling is getting under way as postal ballots start popping through letterboxes. There are a million postal votes, the highest number ever, account for 23.8 per cent of the electorate, up from 17.7 per cent in 2016. Last time over three quarters of those registered for a postal vote used it, in an election whose overall turnout was 56 per cent. If that is repeated about a third of all votes cast will arrive by mail. The likely beneficiaries are the most organised parties — that’s the SNP, with its 100,000 members, and the Tories, who know how to bring their vote out. Differential turnout may also be important - in the 2017 general election the SNP shipped half a million votes, not because they lost them to others but because previously identified supporters did not turn out. There have been two important bellwethers this week. Firstly Nicola Sturgeon added to her reputation for coronavirus competence by accelerating lockdown easing. Her stewardship of the crisis is at the heart of her projected electoral success. Secondly there was a second televised debate. The SNP leader seemed uncharacteristically subdued, a sign that she doesn’t want to frighten the horses and that an absolute majority is within her grasp. If she fails to reach that target, it will not be by much. Well behind her, the Tories and Labour are battling it out for second place. Labour’s Anas Sarwar has punched above his party’s weight but transferring personal ratings into votes is a tough ask. His message, that the next parliament should be a Covid recovery parliament, has struck a chord, but poor party organisation is a millstone. The Tories have a well targeted anti-independence message designed to motivate their core vote but approval scores for their leader trail well behind. Lots of attention has been given to Alex Salmond and Alba, but the Greens have not received the attention they deserve. If the polls are right they could nearly double their representation to 11 MSPs. The Greens are already angling for a pro-independence coalition with the SNP in the year that COP26 comes to Glasgow. Watch this space.
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