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Good morning,
They're changing the guard at Buckingham Palace: out goes David Cameron and in comes Theresa May. The papers are full of speculation about who will be in May's first cabinet, but in the first sign of the way her spin operation will work, there is little in the way of actual facts.
There are also lots of comment pieces and leader columns on Cameron's legacy as PM, many of which are rather kinder than he might have expected.
And Jeremy Corbyn clings on. Obviously. |
Matt Chorley
Red Box Editor
@MattChorley
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| In today’s briefing |
- Labour on course for split
- Brick thrown at Eagle's office
- May meets ma'am
- Amber Rudd for chancellor?
- Cameron says his goodbyes
- Brexit could take six years
- Ruth Davidson on leadership climax
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| Corbyn's Labour |
| Corbyn clings on. Obviously |
Well that went well.
For the past two and a half weeks, rebel Labour MPs insisted they had a plan. Hilary Benn telling Jeremy Corbyn to go would work. The mass resignation of the shadow cabinet would work. A vote of no confidence by the Parliamentary Labour Party would work. Tom Watson brokering a deal with the unions would work. Finding a unity candidate to trigger a leadership challenge would work.
Anyone with the stamina to look past the more pressing events engulfing the Conservative government in recent days will have noticed that none of it has worked.
And so last night came the crunch moment when a vote was forced in the National Executive Committee to stop Corbyn automatically getting on the ballot paper in a new leadership contest. And that didn't work either.
During a highly charged meeting - during which at one point Corbyn refused to leave the room - Labour’s governing body chose by 18 members to 14 to guarantee that he could take part in a leadership election without the need for 51 nominations from MPs and MEPs. The man who won with 60 per cent of the vote just ten months ago is widely expected to win again - and the Labour Party will split.
As Corbyn and his henchman Jon Trickett left the meeting for a victory lap in front of supporters outside, his opponents forced another vote on who will get a say in choosing the leader.
I know it's hard to believe, but they've made it complicated and it is unclear whether it helps or hinders the battle to remove Corbyn.
Only those who have been members of the party for six months can have a say, excluding the 129,000 who have signed up since the EU referendum .
But new members could still vote if they sign up as registered supporters, this time for £25 — higher than the £3 many Corbyn-backers paid in the contest last year. The race is now on to see whether the hard left or the centrists can persuade more of their supporters to part with £25 when applications open for two days from Monday.
Meanwhile Corbyn's opponents still can't decide who to back as a challenger: Angela Eagle, who launched her bid on Monday, or Owen Smith, who will announce his intention to run today.
It is important to remember that if there had been anyone decent to mount a run for the leadership last year, they should have been able to beat Corbyn. There wasn't, and there still isn't.
Labour has had no one of outstanding quality since Tony Blair and Gordon Brown dominated British politics; the latter squashing any rising stars who might prevent his move to No 10. Since then the party has lacked both ideas and personalities able to hold on to either its traditional electoral bases in Scotland, Wales and England's industrial north, or make inroads into Middle England where elections are won and lost.
The party has lost its way, facing challenges from the Conservatives, Ukip and the SNP, with no plan to take on any of them.
The optimists now insist that the creation of a new, centre-left party will work. We'll see.
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| Brick thrown at MP's office |
There is a troubling side to the problems facing the Labour Party: Angela Eagle ordered Jeremy Corbyn yesterday to “get control” of his supporters after a brick was thrown through her constituency office window just hours after she launched a leadership bid.
“This isn’t the kinder or better politics we were promised," Eagle said, mocking her leader.
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| Today’s cartoon from Peter Brookes |
| The next PM |
| Rudd in tooth and claw |
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There are two sorts of Theresa May: the steady, cautious, low-profile, getting on with the job, don't frighten the horses Theresa May. And the bold, big bang, element of surprise, expect-the-unexpected Theresa May.
Today we find out which Theresa May will walk into No 10 as prime minister and start forming the new cabinet.
The cautious Theresa May would make Philip Hammond chancellor, keep George Osborne on as foreign secretary, make sure Michael Gove and Boris Johnson are happy with plum roles.
The bold Theresa May would make Amber Rudd chancellor, wave goodbye to Osborne and offer Gove and Johnson low-level jobs or no jobs at all. Up to half of the new cabinet would be women, with Karen Bradley and Justine Greening first in line.
Of course, she'll have to balance Brexiteers and Remainers, experience against new talent. But there are a lot of people in the Tory party who hope it is bold Theresa May who crosses the threshold in Downing Street tonight.
The new PM might not shout about it, but has worked steadily behind the scenes to mentor women into becoming candidates, then MPs then ministers. Now she has a chance to shape the government, and will never have as much power in a reshuffle as she does today.
Rudd, who was the "aristocracy co-ordinator" for the film Four Weddings and Funeral, only became an MP six years ago, and played a high-profile role in the Remain campaign before throwing her weight behind May's bid for the leadership. She will be rewarded with one of the great offices of state: chancellor, foreign secretary or home secretary.
We'll find out which one in a few hours.
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| The next PM |
| May meets ma'am |
Before Theresa May can start shaping the government, there is the small matter of saying goodbye to her predecessor.
David Cameron tells the Telegraph that he leaves Britain a "stronger country" with a "thriving economy and more chances to get on in life".
Several papers report that he has drawn up a resignation honours list, with the spin doctor Craig Oliver, fixer Gabby Bertin, chief of staff Ed Llewellyn and aide Liz Sugg in line for gongs.
This morning he will gather his closest advisers to prepare for his final prime minister's questions. The weekly meeting, usually dominated by laughter as jokes are crafted for use at the despatch box, will be a more sombre affair.
When his final half-hour session in the Commons comes to an end, senior Tories will start a round of applause. It will be interesting to see if Jeremy Corbyn, Labour and the SNP join in.
Then it will be back to No 10 for a final time, to gather his thoughts and his family, before addressing the cameras and heading to Buckingham Palace to see the Queen.
Shortly afterwards, May will travel to the palace for her first royal audience, before returning to Downing Street to deliver her first speech as PM. The British constitution fulfilled with ruthless efficiency.
Stewart Wood, who worked for Gordon Brown in No 10, has written a nice piece on the day of goodbyes when a prime minister moves out, including Cameron waking to the realisation that "he will no longer be at the centre of things – a thought that will fill him with a mixture of emptiness and delight". |
| New backbencher means the party's off |
David Cameron vowed yesterday to be an obedient backbencher as he chaired an emotional final cabinet meeting before leaving office.
He will swap his study at the heart of No 10 for a large office in parliament, to the irritation of Welsh Tory MPs told to move out to make space. I understand he will base himself in an office in a prime spot in the main parliament building.
The room, dubbed the “Welsh Tower”, is being vacated by a group of Tory MPs from Wales. It was due to be used by researchers next week for an end of term party, known to be one of the more raucous on the parliamentary estate. Cameron’s arrival has forced it to be cancelled.
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An easygoing PM who managed to find a middle way
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| Francis Elliott, political editor and Cameron biographer |
| I have always liked the lust for life and sense of humour the professionalism shields from view. It must be something of a consolation that some of the things he likes most — shooting, drinking fine wine with friends, very good food, jumping into cold water, the occasional cigar, bad jokes — can be indulged less furtively in future. |
| Brexit Britain |
| Brexit could take six years, says Hammond |
The strange thing about the referendum vote on June 23 is that people now talk as if "Brexit" is in the past. We have "left" the European Union.
In fact, not only have we not walked through the exit, we don't even know where the door is yet. Philip Hammond, who at the time of writing is foreign secretary, has warned it could take six years to disentangle Britain from the EU: two years to negotiate and a further four years to fully ratify.
Meanwhile Angela Merkel has said she wants a business-as-usual approach to trade with the UK after Brexit, keeping the impact on the other 27 countries "as small as possible". Read the story |
| SW1 |
| Nothing but the Ruth |
Ruth Davidson came to parliament yesterday promising jokes, and she didn't disappoint. I've pulled together the Scottish Tory leader's best lines on the Red Box website, but your day is not complete if you haven't seen her unique explanation of the recent leadership turmoil:
"Labour is still fumbling with its flies while the Tories are enjoying their post-coital cigarette… after withdrawing our massive Johnson. Sorry that’s not even my speech, that’s just a text from Stephen Crabb."
She then added a terrific swipe at Andrea Leadsom: “I didn’t say that. You can’t report that. And it would be gutter journalism of the highest order if you have written down exactly what I just said.”
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| Rib-tickler Ruth is the tonic to Theresa’s ice |
| Patrick Kidd |
| The difference between the Palace of Westminster and the Scottish parliament, as Ruth Davidson explained after lunch in the former yesterday, is stark. “Holyrood doesn’t have scaffolding up and the toilets work,” she said. “There’s enough space and electronic voting means we’re not stuck there until 3am going through the lobbies.” Read the full sketch |
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SANDERS BACKS CLINTON After a year of ideological conflict Hillary Clinton was finally endorsed yesterday by Bernie Sanders in a show of unity that many Democrats feared might never happen. Read the story
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DISABILITY HATE CRIME Hate crime against disabled people has risen by more than 40 per cent in a year, including assaults and verbal abuse. Read the story
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UKIP LEADERSHIP RULES Anger has erupted in Ukip over new rules for its leadership contest that will block well-known figures from standing. Read the story
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WHITEHALL LURES OUTSIDERS All civil service posts are to be advertised externally as part of a drive to bring highly paid commercial experts into Whitehall.
Read the story
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TUTOR ABUSE WARNING Parents have been urged to carry out checks before hiring private tutors after a charity gave warning that tutoring could provide cover for child abusers. Read the story
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DAIRY FARM CLOSURES One in ten dairy farms in England and Wales has closed in the past three years. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board warned that the low prices paid to farmers for milk was driving them out of business.
Read the story
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| TMS |
| From the diary |
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Two slender volumes
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There are now two biographies of Mrs May being bashed out to cash in on the public demand. The Biteback one, which the diary mentioned yesterday, will be by Rosa Prince, who wrote a biography of Jeremy Corbyn this year. It will be beaten into print by John Blake Publishing, which hopes to get a version by Virginia Blackburn out by September 1. Lucky that the new PM is renowned for being such a rich source of entertaining anecdotes...
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Read more from the TMS diary
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| Today |
- David Cameron resigns as prime minister in an audience with the Queen. Theresa May to be appointed his successor.
- China-EU summit continues in Beijing, with Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker expected to give a press conference.
- Government proposals for social work have "significant weaknesses" and social work is "under severe stress", according to a report published by the education committee.
- Liz Truss, the environment secretary, attends Great Yorkshire Show.
- 9.30am: Jo Johnson, the science minister, and others give evidence to the science and technology committee on the implications of Brexit for research.
- 10.00am: Michael Gove, the justice secretary, gives evidence to members of the justice committee on radicalisation in prisons.
- 2.00pm: MPs on the Treasury committee take evidence on the UK's future economic relationship with Europe.
- 4.00pm: Ed Vaizey, the culture minister, joins his French counterpart to launch the Franco-British Data Task Force.
- 6.00pm: Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, chairs public meeting on Trident nuclear weapons system.
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| House of Commons |
- 11.30am: Wales questions
- 12.00pm: Prime minister's question time
- Ten-minute rule motion on the NHS
- Motion to approve a statutory instrument relating to terrorism
- General debate on the report of the Iraq inquiry
- Adjournment on Tay cities deal
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| House of Lords |
- 3.00pm: Oral questions on universal credit tenants in arrears, Welsh government recycling rates, leak of telegrams from UK embassy in Ankara, and violence in South Sudan.
- Legislation: Investigatory Powers Bill - committee stage day 2
- Debate on government assessment of the UK's at sea nuclear deterrant
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