Red Box - Tuesday April 23 2019

PLUS: Remain’s new slogan

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Tuesday April 23 2019

By Matt Chorley

Good morning,

And welcome back.

I enjoyed a very pleasant week gluing myself to Diane Abbott and drinking mojitos on Jeremy Corbyn's fence, but am now back and raring to go.

While I was off Brexit seems to have been totally sorted as no one has mentioned it for ages, so let's hope it stays that way . . .

LISTEN: Catch me every weekday morning giving a sneak preview of what's coming up in Red Box at 7.30am with Julia Hartley-Brewer at breakfast on TalkRadio. Listen here

Matt Chorley

Red Box Editor

@MattChorley

The briefing

Theresa May chairs cabinet at the slightly later time of 11am, giving everyone time to catch up on what they did during the holidays.
Cross-party Brexit talks pick up where they left off before recess: pessimistically. It will include a meeting of the security working group between Steve Barclay, the Brexit secretary, and Sir Keir Starmer, his Labour opposite number.
Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, will update the Commons on the Easter Sunday terror attacks in Sri Lanka which left 310 dead, including eight British victims.
The New IRA has admitted responsibility for the killing of Lyra McKee. In a statement to the Irish News the group offered “full and sincere apologies to the partner, family and friends of Lyra McKee for her death”. The Times carries a moving obituary to the 29-year-old journalist who was shot dead last week.
Extinction Rebellion climate protesters are expected to stage a fresh demo in parliament square today, welcoming MPs back from their Easter recess.
Are you good with numbers? Fancy living in Newport? Could you get by on £160,000? The Office for National Statistics has failed to find a new national statistician. George Osborne is dusting off his CV (and reading Statistics for Dummies) as we speak.
It’s the big political battle of the day: who will win the Twitter World Cup of Labour MPs: Diane Abbott faces Jess Phillips in the final, with Jeremy Corbyn forced to make do with fighting it out with Sir Keir Starmer for third.
Esther Webber's trivia question: In honour of St George's Day, how many British prime ministers with the first name George have there been? Answer at the bottom of today's email.

Who will meet Trump?

What we do know is he is coming. What we don’t know is who will greet him when he gets here (apart from the huge crowd of protesters, obviously.)

The White House is about to confirm that President Trump is coming to the UK on the long-awaited state visit first promised to him by Theresa May in January 2017. Doesn’t that feel like a long time ago?

Back then May had a 16-point lead in the polls, and the most difficult thing she’d negotiated was holding Trump’s hand while she helped him down some stairs.

Two and a bit years on he is now going to get his state visit. This is the full bells and whistles, flags out, overnight stay at Buckingham Palace that Trump craves (and which he was denied during last year’s working visit). It is notable that details of the state visit are still sketchy despite it happening in just six weeks.

Normally planned months, even years in advance, even now the final itinerary is not confirmed, though Trump is expected in London before heading to D-Day 75th anniversary commemorations in France on June 6. Will he get a carriage ride up the Mall? Will he get to address both houses of parliament (in defiance of John Bercow’s foot-stamping?)

And the biggest question: will May still be prime minister then? Not if Tory MPs have got anything to do with it.

Any hopes that a sunny Easter break might have calmed everyone down will be dashed. In fact the opposite may be true. Tory MPs (and members) are incensed at both the Brexit talks with Labour and the rather-optimistic Downing Street planning for a new Queen’s Speech this summer.

A cabinet minister recently reassured me that everyone knew the PM wasn’t going to be around forever, so early moves against her were unnecessary. When I explained that far from planning a departure, No 10 was planning a summer relaunch, the incredulous minister replied: “They are WHAT?!?”

This afternoon the executive of the 1922 Committee, essentially the union of backbench Tory MPs, will hold an emergency session to discuss the PM’s future. In a sign of how serious it is, the meeting is happening on a Tuesday – an unprecedented departure from the usual Wednesday meetings. (Look, this matters to some people.)

On the agenda is the question of setting a date for May’s departure. The need for her to go seems to be accepted. The only point of dispute is when.

One member of the 1922 executive Committee tells The Times it could be as early as the end of next month. The Daily Telegraph says plans have been drawn up to change the party rules so that leaders can face a vote of no confidence every six months, instead of every 12. Since May survived such a vote on December 12, the new deadline would therefore be June 12 – less than a week after Trump’s visit.

What is more likely is that by the time Trump visits May will still be prime minister, but a Conservative leadership contest will be formally under way, having confirmed a departure date.

In normal times the candidates would crawl over hot coals to secure a meeting with a visiting President of the United States. David Cameron, then leader of the opposition, couldn’t stop grinning after taking tea with President Obama during his first visit to the UK a decade ago this month.

These are not normal times, though. It is possible some leadership contenders on the left of the party would seek to avoid glad-handing Trump.

But you could imagine a scenario where the president found time to meet Boris Johnson. Just last month, asked what he thought of the former foreign secretary replacing May, Trump replied: “I like Boris Johnson a lot. He's a friend of mine.” Remember too that Johnson angered his cabinet colleagues a year ago by piping up at the end of a meeting and heaping praise on Trump, claiming there was “method in his madness”.

Johnson remains the frontrunner for the top job. The latest ConservativeHome survey of Tory members puts him well ahead of a crowded field, though the chart below shows that he has squandered huge leads before. A Survation poll of Tory councillors for the Mail on Sunday also put Johnson in the lead, and capable of stemming mass defections to Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party.

Rory Stewart, justice minister, told the Today programme he did not believe "a new leader with charm and nimble feet would suddenly be able to get the deal across the line" and that holding a leadership contest with the first stage of Brexit unresolved would "tear politics apart".

Meanwhile the i splashes on a fresh plot to stop Johnson even surviving the early rounds of voting by Tory MPs to make it into the final two to be voted on by all party members.

So we have Conservative MPs plotting to oust May, and Conservative MPs plotting to stop Johnson. Given their track record in recent months it is not beyond the realms of possibility that they will fail in both endeavours.

Which would mean May being on the end of the red carpet when Trump arrives but the president looking over her shoulder for his good friend Boris.

Poll of the day

Red Box: Comment

After 40 years of EU ignorance, we are all experts now

John Kampfner – commentator

Candidates assemble

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party goes head to head with Heidi Allen’s (or is it Chuka Umunna’s or Anna Soubry’s?) Change UK this morning as both unveil candidates for next month’s European elections.

The Brexit Party gets in first at 10.30am, promising the next tranche of candidates at a press conference in central London. They might struggle to match the surprise factor of having Annunziata Rees-Mogg, sister of Jacob, earlier this month. The Sun reports that one of them will be Claire Fox, a former member of the Revolutionary Communist Party.

Then at 11.15am Change UK launch their European election campaign in Bristol. No names have been confirmed but insiders suggest there will be a spread of former Labour, Tory and Lib Dem ministers, MPs, councillors and activists. They will also move to quash talk of an alliance between parties supporting a second referendum, insisting it would be illegal and wouldn’t work under the PR system where voters back a party not an individual.

The People’s Vote campaign itself is undergoing some soul-searching too. Francis Elliott reveals in his excellent Times column today the conundrum facing those pressing for a second referendum who risk just losing a second time to buoyant Brexiteers using the slogan “tell them again”. So what can neutralise it? Elliott writes: “The People’s Vote is mulling ‘Now we know’, a slogan designed to attract Leave voters while gently inviting them to consider the unexpected complexity and cost of quitting the EU.” More here

Red Box: Comment

Remain politicians are handing the advantage to Nigel Farage

Chris Coghlan – Founder of Renew

On Thursday Esther asked you if MPs should have backed May’s deal and 52 per cent said yes, it was the least worst option. Which as we all know is a definitive result. Full result here

Have your say

Last week we asked what MPs should focus on when they return.

David Greenwood said: "Labour and Conservatives need to focus on compromise and coming to an agreement on Brexit: if it involves a customs agreement, so be it. This sort of compromise would probably represent the 52/48 split and stand some chance of leading towards the unification of the country."

Philip Hall said: "Since the majority are voting against their own 2017 manifesto pledges, perhaps they might try working out why MPs are no longer respected?"

Mike Rogers said: "Behaving like adults." Chez said: "Whether to have custard creams or jammy dodgers with their coffee."

TODAY: Which non-politician would you like to see standing in the European parliament elections, and for which party? Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best tomorrow.

The best comment

Fractured Remainers need a united front

Francis Elliott – The Times

Police have lost sight of the line of duty

Melanie Phillips – The Times

I don’t want the next generation to suffer racism like me

Raheem Sterling – The Times

The European press corps cannot cover the EU

James Kanter - The Atlantic

In 30 years of research I've never seen the public so despondent about politics

Deborah Mattinson - The Daily Telegraph

The cartoon

Today's cartoon from The Times

Need to know

INDIFFERENT AND INCOMPETENT: The Grenfell Tower survivors’ group has for the first time publicly attacked Theresa May and “indifferent and incompetent” ministers who took their “kindness as weakness”. Grenfell United (GU) has told The Times that almost two years of meetings with the government, “fighting tooth and nail” for building safety and social housing reform, have been met with too little action. (The Times)

AVOIDABLE DEATHS: A hundred British military personnel have died in the past 35 years because of “avoidable” accidents linked to government maladministration, a new book claims. (The Times)

RELIGIOUS PREJUDICE: Stephen Kerr, a Mormon MP, has claimed that he has been the victim of “blind prejudice” and politically motivated attacks that would not be tolerated towards any other religion. (The Times)

BLOWING WHISTLE: Gagging orders for whistleblowers will be banished from the NHS, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has promised, after a radiographer had her non-disclosure agreement overturned. (The Daily Telegraph)

SECRET CAMPAIGN: A network of secretive pro-Brexit Facebook campaigns overseen by Sir Lynton Crosby’s company CTF Partners was part of a wider campaign to undermine Theresa May and push Britain towards a hard Brexit, according to individuals with knowledge of the company’s operations and internal documents. (The Guardian)

Red Box: Comment

Hydrogen could be key to answering calls for climate change action

Anna Turley – Labour MP for Redcar

Tweet of the day

I know the #ExtinctionRebellion protesters are not everyone's cup of tea, and some are posh/young/poser types who can sound silly, but the sight of these individuals being belittled by veteran anchormen who look like they had half the planet for lunch is pretty revolting

@theJeremyVine

Poster of the day

If you see a better election poster or leaflet during either the local or European campaigns, email a picture to redbox@thetimes.co.uk

Red Box: Comment

Britain must scale up its space ambition

Gabriel Elefteriu – Policy Exchange

Now read this

On the face of it the two draft telegrams from Winston Churchill to his chief military assistant seemed to be a historic discovery.

But are they genuine documents from the height of the Second World War or props from the Gary Oldman film Darkest Hour?

Read the full story

TMS

From the diary

By Patrick Kidd

Gaffe early and often

Over the weekend Labour tweeted a Passover message featuring bread that Jews aren’t allowed during the festival, and then got Jeremy Corbyn to explain Easter by talking about that crucial part of the paschal narrative, Joseph and Mary’s flight into Egypt. Yesterday it completed the hat-trick by wishing everyone a happy St George’s Day. So keen was it to do so it published the message a day early.