Red Box - Friday March 13 2020

PLUS: The new coronavirus advice

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Friday March 13 2020

By Matt Chorley

Good morning,

One upside to all this hand washing is that I finally have an excuse to use the bar of soap bought for me by my mother-in-law.

Which is also a handy tape measure for sizing up your penis.

Stay safe out there, look after your loved ones, and keep washing.

Matt Chorley

Red Box Editor

@MattChorley

The briefing

From today anyone showing even mild symptoms of coronavirus is told to stay at home for seven days. Detailed guidance on what to do, and when, is here.

In the coming weeks whole families will be told to stay at home if one member has a cough or a fever. The elderly will also be told to avoid social contact for many weeks.
The global economy could be tipped into recession by the coronavirus crisis, experts warned last night, as the FTSE 100 suffered its worst day in more than 30 years.
Justin Trudeau, the prime minister of Canada, will be in isolation for a fortnight after his wife tested positive for the coronavirus following a trip to the UK.
The UK cabinet minister thought to be at risk of having coronavirus has tested negative.
The next round of Brexit talks, which would have seen 200 negotiators sitting down in London on Monday, have been cancelled. The Electoral Commission has recommended postponing May's local elections.
In China the government announced that Wuhan, the birthplace of coronavirus, was about to partially reopen. The National Health Commission declared that the country had passed the peak of the outbreak, and reported only 15 new cases overnight.
Esther Webber's trivia question: Spanish flu began to break out in late 1917 to early 1918. When was it first discussed in parliament? Answer at the bottom of today's email

Red Box: Comment

Coronavirus crisis could have revived a sense of solidarity with the continent

John Kampfner – commentator

It won't be alright

It is a sentence no leader ever wants to utter. It was almost unreal. Like something from a film.

"I must level with you, level with the British public: many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time."

That it was this prime minister, a man best known for waving fish, hanging on zipwires and getting through scrapes with a hair ruffle and a "cripes", was all the more shocking.

Everyone watching will have thought of grannies and granddads and neighbours and quietly wondered if they are going to make it.

Up to 10,000 may already be infected, despite official figures climbing to only 590.

“This is the worst public health crisis for a generation," Boris Johnson said during the latest press conference, flanked by his boffins. It's not like seasonal flu. It's more dangerous and it’s going to spread further.

It was a real shift shift in tone from the semi-jovial stuff about which song to sing while you're washing your hands. Shit got real.

And for a modern country in the 21st century, this is what is hard to come to terms with. There is no easy fix. There is no way out of this. It is coming. It is coming fast. Bad stuff will happen. And there is almost nothing that you nor I nor "they" can do about it.

It seems slightly bewildering now that a year ago this week we were fretting about whether or not Theresa May's government could survive as MPs voted down her duff deal for a second time. The stakes felt high at the time. Now we know what real stakes feel like.

For all of the punditry and commentary I have seen in the past 24 hours, the most thoughtful and almost moving came from Julia Samuel, a psychotherapist who appeared on Sky News to explain why we find this so crisis disquieting:

"We're used to somebody coming out, speaking on the telly like ‘We've got this sorted and... we're doing the best we can’. But actually there's nothing we can do. And you know, a hundred years ago, everybody would expect that and they would have the endurance, the expectation they'll do what they can.

"And we don't. We expect a pill or something that will fix it for us, or that you go to hospital and everything's better. So I think what we're having to learn is that we need to endure, we need to develop our own resilience."

In an era when we are used to instant gratification, to food and films and fun delivered whenever we want it, we now have to accept that not everything is fixable. There is no app for that.

And I know that every day some people struggle, living on the edge financially, emotionally, mentally. But millions of people are used to everything being just OK. For the entire country to learn, together, that it isn't is a huge shock to the national psyche.

Johnson insisted, calmly and without the Churchillian theatrics we might have expected: "We will get through this, this country will get through this epidemic, just as it has got through many tougher experiences before, if we look out for each other and commit wholeheartedly to a full national effort."

Those tougher experiences of the past are not remembered by most. A national effort in the age of individualism is going to come as a shock.

Samuel added that this period — the waiting and not knowing — is almost worse. "An unknown virus or a plague... it just unsettles people. I think what you've imagined is always worse than reality. If somebody could say to you, ‘Tomorrow you're going to wake up with coronavirus’, you'd be scared but you'd kind of prepare yourself.

"It's the imagining. So we have limitless imagination of am I going to be the one that dies? You know, or is my wife or my father or whatever it is. And that really scares us."

The question is what will that fear do to the country. Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, says that the behavioural science suggests that we are likely to pull together: “The biggest effect is not outbreaks of panic but outbreaks of altruism.”

And there may be a wider impact too. Being more optimistic or patriotic or getting more retweets isn't going to work this time.

After four years of cynicism of experts, of coveting those with whom you agree rather than those who might actually know, of blame and bitterness and bile, there is (I hope) a change in the air.

Instead of automatically disbelieving those in positions of authority, we are desperate to believe that they know what they are doing. Or at least that they are doing it with the best of intentions.

By the time we find out whether or not they were right, it will be too late. Johnson repeated his mantra that he is being led by the science, but no one has yet fully explained why this government has science which is telling it to do such radically different things to other governments.

Italy is in lockdown; France and Ireland are closing schools; Japan is preparing to cancel the Tokyo Olympics; Australia is cancelling the Formula One Grand Prix; America is banning flights. And still Britain is focused on hand-washing and telling those with symptoms to stay at home.

The UK government and scientific advisers insist that closing schools and cancelling mass gatherings have little effect on curbing the spread and may have unintended consequences: children have to be looked after by vulnerable grandparents; football fans congregate in pubs instead.

Yet in Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, who crassly rushed from finding out what Cobra had agreed to announce Johnson's plan for him, is planning to ban large public events that require a police presence.

Unusually, I have no glib joke or sarcastic point to make. I am not an expert. Rightly or wrongly, I am willing to put my faith in the prime minister and his advisers for now.

Not because of any great love or admiration but because, frankly, that is the only option we have. The armchair epidemiologists raging on Twitter know no more than the rest of us, and probably a lot less.

Anyone who has "crunched their own numbers" or "saw something online" or thinks it is "common sense" or it "stands to reason" that the government should be doing X or Y are missing the point: there is no correct answer. This is a judgment call. There is no option where there are no sick people and no deaths. We will not know who was right for months, years, possibly ever.

Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary who now chairs the health select committee, broke ranks to question the UK plan, comparing it to the aggressive approach of Thailand and Taiwan. He told Channel 4 News: "One thing we do have now is evidence of countries that appear to have been strikingly successful in turning back the tide of the virus."

Sir Patrick Vallance mounted a strong defence of the UK approach this morning, telling Sky News that the self-isolation measures announced yesterday for those with a cough or fever “will mean a large number of people at home being isolated — it is a very big measure actually, it’s going to have quite a big impact”. He added: "My job as chief scientific adviser is to speak scientific truth to power and say it as it is, and that is exactly what I will do."

Of course we are right to ask questions of the government, but some people will never be satisfied with the answers. In part we want a big crisis to be met with a big response. Stocking up on soap seems insufficient.

The government has moved from contain to delay; from trying to stop us getting it to assuming we will all get it, just not all at once. That is why they are now saying that the UK peak could be ten to 14 weeks away. Instead of having a bigger peak earlier, we want a longer, lower hump.

Johnson, who had been otherwise calm and sombre, described this as a “squash the sombrero” approach, adding: “If we delay the peak even by a few weeks, then our NHS will be in a stronger state as the weather improves and fewer people suffer from normal respiratory diseases, more beds are available and we’ll have more time for medical research.”

The same number of people or perhaps more might get it, but over many more weeks. By delaying the spread, the NHS might be better able to look after and save some of those for whom a bad flu could be fatal.

Herd immunity is being turned on its head: instead of vaccinating most of the population to stop the disease taking hold (there is no vaccine for Covid-19), ministers want most of the population to get it so that it cannot spread any further.

But it needs to be staged. So those who fall ill soon will be asked to cut themselves off from everyone else, just as they might need them most.

"The biggest thing that supports you in a time of crisis," Julia Samuel added. "Is the love and connection to others."

That is why this feels hard: having to navigate the unknown, the unfamiliar sensation of a problem that cannot be solved with a click or a credit card, and doing it without the family, friends and colleagues who usually sustain us.

This is going to be tough. Look after yourselves and be there for each other.

Red Box: Comment

Coronavirus: keep parliament open but limit visitors

Garry Graham – Prospect union

What the papers say

The Times: "The consequence of Mr Johnson’s gamble is that many more families will indeed lose loved ones than might have done if the government took more extreme measures to stem the spread of the disease. There is the clear risk that by doing so little to halt the spread the NHS will become overwhelmed, as Italy’s health service has been, forcing doctors to make invidious choices about who receives treatment."

The Guardian: "The new measures to achieve delay are minimal compared to those taken in other countries. In Italy, more than 1,000 have now succumbed. The old and other vulnerable groups will suffer. The overstretched NHS is surely not prepared for the numbers who will be falling sick in short order."

The Daily Telegraph: "We are going to become horribly aware of underlying weaknesses in various bureaucracies and health systems across the world, problems that should’ve been addressed years ago but there wasn’t the political will to do it."

Financial Times: "The 'leader of the free world' is traditionally a source of reassurance in times of crisis. But the current US president, Donald Trump, is providing confusion, not leadership. Instead of damping down the flames of the coronavirus outbreak, his Oval Office address on Wednesday poured fuel on them."

Daily Mail: "There will inevitably be accusations of doing too little too late and the cries of grieving relatives will ring in [Mr Johnson's] ears. But for now we can only hope this vision is overpessimistic and follow the scientific advice. It's the best we have."

Daily Express: "We need to draw on the Blitz spirit that has defined the British and do what we need to do to keep ourselves and our loved ones safe — but not be cowed by adversity."

The Sun: "We can only heed the experts staking their careers, and maybe the PM’s, on calling this right. We must wash our hands. We must fight this as a nation. We must not let that unity of purpose be undermined by idiots on social media."

Daily Mirror: "Only time will tell if this is the correct course. Many will rightly question if more could be done now to protect the elderly and prevent more people from succumbing. The outcome of this crisis will depend on political as well as medical judgments. Lives depend on Boris Johnson getting these calls right."

Labour leadershipwatch

The contest is essentially over. All remaining hustings have been suspended. The result will now be announced at a scaled-down event on April behind closed doors.

Red Box: Comment

Brexit talks: time for ministers to end their ‘self-isolation’

Paul Blomfield and Thangam Debbonaire – shadow Brexit ministers

Need to know

HEY BIG SPENDER: Britain’s public spending will rise to more than £1 trillion for the first time, a think tank has said, after Rishi Sunak delivered the biggest budget giveaway for almost 30 years. (The Times)

SALMOND TRIAL: A civil servant whom Alex Salmond is accused of sexually assaulting has told a court that she did not report him to the police because she feared damaging the campaign for Scottish independence. (The Times)

FIRST AID TEST: The effectiveness of Britain’s £14 billion annual aid budget is to be investigated by parliament. (The Times)

FLOOD RISK: The government has announced a review into the building of thousands of homes on land at the highest risk of flooding following the worst winter storms in years. (The Guardian)

PARTY TIME: Boris Johnson has brought a man who ran London's most exclusive sex parties into the heart of his No 10 operation. (Daily Mirror)

Red Box: Comment

School uniforms must be made affordable

Mike Amesbury – Labour MP

I asked how you thought the government was handling the crisis and the majority said very well. Full result here

Have your say

Yesterday I asked how the Lib Dems should occupy themselves now that their spring conference has been cancelled.

Roger Andrew said: "To paraphrase David Steel from 1981, 'Go home and prepare for government.' Take your time."

TODAY: At the end of a grim week, send us your reasons to be cheerful. Email redbox@thetimes.co.uk and we'll use some of the best on Monday.

The best comment

Keir Starmer’s first task is to purge the Corbynistas

Philip Collins – The Times

Crisis shows Johnson in his true colours

Iain Martin – The Times

Tom Hanks has coronavirus — this just got real

Caitlin Moran – The Times

Boris Johnson's attempts to fix the 'woman issue' has alienated male MPs

Stephen Bush - the i

The coronavirus crisis will pass but life may never be ‘normal’ again

Gaby Hinsliff - The Guardian

The cartoon

Today's cartoon from The Times by Peter Brookes

Now read this

Michel Roux obituary

Michel Roux’s day would start with a glass of water followed by a banana, “which I eat very slowly”, and a cup of black coffee. Customers at his restaurants — such as Le Gavroche, which he opened in Lower Sloane Street, Chelsea, in 1967 with his brother Albert and which in 1982 became the first in Britain to be awarded three Michelin stars — could expect more exotic fare.

It took the brothers a while to persuade British diners to eat their fish a little pink and their meat red rather than black, but by 1972 they were ready to open the Waterside Inn at Bray in Berkshire, which also acquired three Michelin stars and became the showcase in Britain for classic French cuisine.

Read the full story

Times+ event: An evening with Rachel Johnson

Join us on the evening of Wednesday, April 1 to hear the journalist and broadcaster Rachel Johnson in conversation with Matt Chorley, editor of Red Box, as she discusses her midlife crisis, life in politics and brand new book. Book tickets today at mytimesplus.co.uk

TMS

From the diary

By Patrick Kidd

Ballroom blitzed

Not all MPs get the same perks. Gareth Davies, the new member for Grantham & Stamford, was delighted when he heard that the parliamentary office of his predecessor, Nick Boles, was dubbed “the ballroom” because it was big enough for yoga sessions and a free-standing wardrobe. Alas, by resigning the whip over Brexit, Boles may have prejudiced the whips against holders of the seat. “They’ve put me in the basement,” Davies says.