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| Friday October 13 2017 |
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By Matt Chorley
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Good morning,
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It's Friday the 13th but every day seems to be unlucky for someone in Westminster these days.
Politics is a mugs' game. So everyone needs a political mug. A Red Box political mug. For all those people who complained that they couldn't get to our events in Manchester and Brighton to get a mug, some good news: from Monday we are giving them away.
There will be a different political quiz question every day next week so be sure to read Red Box each morning.
You have to be a Red Box subscriber to enter, so if you know someone who would like to get their hands on a mug get them signed up to the email today thetimes.co.uk/redbox
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Must reads
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- Scores of Vietnamese children rescued from traffickers and placed in council care have gone missing and are feared to have fallen back into the hands of slave masters, The Times reveals in a harrowing investigation.
- Britain’s tax authorities have not prosecuted a single company or individual for online VAT fraud, an offence that costs the exchequer £1.5 billion a year in lost revenue.
- If you run out of innovative jams to export after Brexit you could always take part in the international tour of Downton Abbey aimed at selling Britishness to Americans.
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Corbyn: Painter, Remainer . . . PM?
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Jeremy Corbyn sprang two surprises yesterday. First the Labour leader can paint. He stopped off during a campaign visit to Shipley in West Yorkshire to rustle up a surprisingly good oil painting of sun, mountains, water and leaves.
Then he outed himself as a Remainer. The man who many suspected voted for Brexit (after a lifetime railing against Brussels) and went on holiday during the referendum is getting more Europhile by the day.
Asked the political question du jour about reconsidering Brexit, he replied: "I voted Remain because I thought the best option was to remain. I haven’t changed my mind on that."
It confirms that we have a prime minister who wanted to Remain and is now really trying to pretend that she loves Brexit and a leader of the opposition who was a Eurosceptic and is now wrapping himself in the blue and yellow stars.
Now why might that be? A new YouGov poll for The Times shows that public opinion on Brexit is shifting: 47 per cent of people now think that Brexit was the wrong decision for Britain, five points clear of those who think that it was right; the widest margin since the polling began last year.
Even more worrying for the government, 64 per cent think that it is handling the negotiations badly. More than half – 54 per cent – of people who voted Leave think that the government is ballsing it up. (And the polling was carried out before Michel Barnier's apocalyptic talk yesterday of "deadlock" in talks in Brussels.)
The proportion of people who think that Brexit will leave the country worse off and less influential on the world stage, that it will be bad for jobs and harm pensions have all risen since August.
Downing Street’s strategy for keeping Theresa May in post depends on what insiders call “quiet competence”. Voters seem to think that the PM is currently overseeing a noisy mess.
The proportion of people who think that the Tories are best for handling the nation’s big problems has fallen in every category in the past two months, from the NHS, schools, immigration and defence to employment and tax. Only 26 per cent think that the Conservatives are the best party to handle Brexit, down five points since August.
That's the good news for Corbyn. The bad news is that Labour does not seem to be benefiting. After a decent party conference and of good/no headlines, Labour is seen as no better placed to run the country.
On who would make the best prime minister, May and Corbyn are tied on 33 per cent, with a rival candidate, "Not Sure", ahead on 35 per cent. Labour is three points ahead on voting intention (42/39) but that has barely shifted since late July.
It suggests that being on the side of people who think that Brexit is a mistake and simply waiting for the Tories to mess it up will not be enough. Corbyn needs to convince the country that he could do a better job. That could mean splashing out on a bigger, bolder canvas.
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Today's cartoon for The Times by Morten Morland
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Disturbing deadlock
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No one expected a breakthrough but confirmation of stalemate in the Brexit talks was still quite a moment. Not least because Michel Barnier, the EU negotiator, dialled up the drama, using a press conference in Brussels to declare: "We’ve reached a state of deadlock which is very disturbing."
He did suggest, though, that "with political will, decisive progress is within our grasp within the next two months", which points to an orchestrated breakthrough at the EU Council summit next week.
Bruno Waterfield, Brussels correspondent for The Times, has seen a leaked draft document for the summit which suggests that EU leaders are prepared to begin "internal" talks to agree a common position on future trade and transition arrangements after Brexit.
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The Sketch
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Only a thesaurus can free us from this knotty problem
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Patrick Kidd
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Like two sloths wrestling in treacle, David Davis and Michel Barnier continue to make slow progress. At their latest press conference the EU’s chief negotiator admitted that they had reached a deadlock. Impasse! Five months in and they have barely agreed on which font to use for the lunch menus. The negotiation is moving at a rate of knots. Gordian knots.
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Read the full sketch
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Tick tock
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The EU Withdrawal Bill is in trouble. Both The Guardian and The Daily Telegraph splash on a string of amendments that put the legislation in peril.
It had been due to be debated next week but Andrea Leadsom, the Commons leader, confirmed that there would be no debate for the next seven days as ministers try to find ways of avoiding a run of embarrassing defeats. Read the full story
It’s all going so well that John O’Dowd, the Sinn Fein politician, popped up on Question Time last night to say that Brexit discussions between David Davis and Northern Irish representatives were “some of the most ludicrous meetings I’ve ever attended”.
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Chart of the day
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Hammond hammered
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Two weeks ago the knives were out for Boris Johnson as the Remainers circled their wagons. For the Brexiteers, this is payback time as they step up pressure on Philip Hammond.
Lord Lawson, a former chancellor, popped up to accuse the current incumbent of No11 of actions "close to sabotage". Remember, that reshuffle is expected soon after next week's summit. Hammond's enemies made clear yesterday that they would not tolerate a failure in next month’s budget. Read the full story
The Daily Mail piles in with a splash devoted to Lawson’s call to “Sack Saboteur Hammond”, with the helpful headline clarification: “That’s the word Nigel Lawson, not the Mail, chose to use."
Meanwhile The Sun reports that the personal chemistry between the prime minister and her chancellor has become so frosty that they “can’t bear” to be alone together and insist that aides attend all their tête-à-têtes.
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| Quote of the day |
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I fear that he is unhelpful . . . what he is doing is very close to sabotage
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Nigel Lawson on Philip Hammond
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Animal instincts
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Did someone take Boris Johnson to the zoo as a treat for not being naughty for a whole day?
First he wanted to "let that lion roar". Then yesterday he called for urgency in the Brexit talks, declaring: "It's time to put a bit of a tiger in the tank and get this thing done."
Let's look forward to his hippopotamus metaphor.
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Good morning, Mr President
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When Liam Fox was appointed president of the board of trade last July he might at least have hoped to preside over a few tea-and-biscuits sessions. Instead, it has emerged that the only person listed as being a member of the board is . . . Dr Liam Fox.
As the board met for the first time in Bristol yesterday, a DIT official insisted that “it’s not just Liam Fox sitting in a room on his own”. At least there’s one Brexit committee that can boast of unity.
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Read the full story
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Trafficked children
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An extraordinary Times investigation should make for uncomfortable reading for anyone charged with looking after vulnerable children. Gabriella Swerling and Sean O'Neill have found scores of trafficked children falling back into the hands of slave gangs even after they have been taken into care.
Freedom of information requests to 430 local authorities reveal that 152 Vietnamese minors have disappeared permanently from care and foster homes since 2015. At least 21 vanished this summer, including 12 from Rochdale.
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Read the full story
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Not-here-to-helpline
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The row over universal credit continues, with The Guardian reporting on growing pressure for ministers to make the 55p-per-minute helpline free.
HuffPost has forced the Department for Work and Pensions into backtracking on a claim that no one had to call the number and that all claims could be handled online. This turns out not to be what you might call "true".
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Honours even
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In May it was reported that Theresa May would not have a dissolution honours list, to draw a line under David Cameron's cronyism of gongs for people he had sacked.
During the election campaign the Tories vowed to restore “integrity” to the honours system to ensure that it “rewards genuine public service”.
In unrelated news, May yesterday handed knighthoods to two MPs she fired after the June election disaster. Mike Penning, a former guardsman sacked as a defence minister, becomes Sir Mike. Also going under the sword is Robert Sym, a former whip best known for replying to a claim on Twitter that the Tories had entered a coalition with the DUP with the blunt response: “It’s not a coalition you d*ck."
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Going green
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Normally politicians overclaim for what they have achieved. The Tories and the environment are a strange exception to the rule, where ministers play down their record and pretend that they aren't really interested in being green at all.
Well now Theresa May is publishing a clean energy strategy which includes plans for more than six million homes to be insulated over the coming 15 years in a bid to save families up to £650 a year on heating costs. Read the full story
Energy prices could also be capped until 2023, the government said, as it published draft legislation to limit bills for up to 12 million households. Read the full story
Joshua Emden at the IPPR think tank writes for Red Box on why a price cap on energy costs is a necessary solution to a broken market.
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Miller speaks out
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The front pages continue to be dominated by revelations about Harvey Weinstein, including the Metropolitan police's move to open an investigation into the US media mogul.
As women from all walks of life line up to share shocking experiences of harassment and abusive behaviour, Maria Miller, chairwoman of the women and equalities select committee, has revealed that she has been sexually harassed “numerous times” in the workplace. The Guardian has the story.
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Apprentices: You're fired
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Charging big firms to fund apprenticeship places was a typically Cameron wheeze. Now it has emerged that the number of new places has fallen since the levy was introduced, prompting anger from business.
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Read the full story
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Party pooper
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John Bercow has said that the three-week conference recess is an unnecessary “palaver” and suggested that the shenanigans and speechmaking could just as easily be held over a weekend to free up more time for lawmaking.
How will MPs, journalists and lobbyists be able to behave like they are at a middle-aged freshers' week?
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Read the full story
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| TMS |
| From the diary |
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By Patrick Kidd
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Speaker Spaniel
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Rebecca Pow, the eternally sunny MP for Taunton Deane, has invited John Bercow to enter the Westminster Dog of the Year competition on October 26. Mr Speaker replied that he lacked a dog but that he did have a cat called Order and a tortoise called Shelly. “I was not proposing to enter myself,” he added, which led Andrea Leadsom to remark that she saw the Speaker as “something of a springer spaniel”.
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Read more from the TMS diary
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What the papers say
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The Times
"The government should publish its Brexit impact assessments, not “in due course”, as it has said, but right away. Parliament is sovereign and Brexit is supposed to bolster that sovereignty, yet it is flying blind.” Read the full article
The Daily Telegraph
"The deadlock is entirely on the EU's side. While Britain wants to agree a mutually beneficial trade deal as soon as possible, Brussels obsesses about the financial cost of the divorce because it desperately needs the UK's cash." Read the full article
The Guardian
"The IMF has demolished the argument that what is good for the super-rich is good for the rest of us, but don’t expect the top 1% to give up without a fight.” Read the full article
Daily Mail
"For while Philip Hammond sees leaving the EU as a long nightmare to be endured, many of Britain's most dynamic business leaders spy only rich opportunities.”
The Independent
"We can, in other words, leave with our eyes open, or we can stay in with our eyes open. The voters will no longer be so easily distracted by mirages when they are staring down the barrel of an economic gun.”Read the full article
The Sun
"We must also make detailed preparations for a "no deal" — and hope they wake up to the folly of being pig-headed.Merkel and Macron are jeopardising jobs and living standards across the UK and Europe.” Read the full article
Daily Mirror
"We warned that Brexit wouldn't be easy but nor shall we accept anything other than a good deal from the PM.Theresa May and her team must up their game, because the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier is running rings around them.”
Financial Times
"Neither eBay nor Netflix is breaking the law. They are taking advantage of the antiquity of the concepts used in the tax code.” Read the full article
Daily Express
"This newspaper is certainly starting to wonder whether the hours Mr Davis has spent sitting on the Eurostar, enduring meetings with EU bureaucrats and reviewing negotiating documents might be put to better use supervising the preparations for leaving without a deal.”
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Agenda
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Today
- Philip Hammond, chancellor, meets G20 finance ministers and central bank governors at the IMF and World Bank annual meeting.
- Amber Rudd, home secretary, and David Lidington, justice secretary, attend the EU justice and home affairs council in Luxembourg.
- Nicola Sturgeon, Scottish first minister, addresses the Arctic Circle Assembly on a visit to Iceland.
- The Care Quality Commission must improve the timelines of its regulation activities, according to a National Audit Office report.
House of Commons & House of Lords
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@MattChorley
